Ending ‘Neither War Nor Peace

Iran Signals Convergence of Views with the United States

By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

The United States and Iran are close to agreeing on a memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at ending the situation that is neither war nor peace, two regional officials and a diplomat said last Saturday.

At the same time, Trump warned that the United States was weighing a new round of attacks on the Islamic Republic (AP/Associated Press, May 23).

However, this was mere bluster on Trump’s part, the Iranians were fully aware that he was under tremendous pressure domestic, regional and international to end the conflict with Iran.

Iran signalled “narrowing differences” in ‘indirect’ negotiations with the US after Pakistan’s army chief held more talks with Tehran, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (currently on an official visit to India) told journalists that “there’s been some progress made” and “there may be news later today.”

The officials and diplomats expressed hope that a final decision on the Pakistani prepared draft could come within 48 hours as both sides review it.

The interlocutors said Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner played significant roles in helping bridge remaining gaps.

No doubt, Marco Rubio in India provided feedback.

Qatar played a key role by sending a senior official to Tehran to support Pakistan’s mediation efforts.

Still, both Iran and the US emphasized their key   positions and have warned of the risks of resuming hostilities.

Iran highlights ‘framework agreement’ for more talks

Iran state TV quoted Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghael as describing the draft as “framework agreement” and adding: “We want this to include the main issues required for ending the imposed war and other issues of essential importance to us. Then, over a reasonable time span, between 30 to 60 days, details are discussed and ultimately a final agreement is reached.”

He said the Strait of Hormuz is among the topics discussed.

Positions have moved closer in recent days, Iran’s official IRNA news agency quoted Baghael as saying.

“Over the past week, the trend has been toward narrowing differences, he said. “We will have to wait and see what happens over the next three or four days.”

Baghael said nuclear issues are not part of the current negotiations, as Tehran first seeks to end the war before discussing its nuclear programme that has long been at the heart of international tensions.

“Our focus at this stage is on ending the war on all fronts including Lebanon,” Baghael said, adding that lifting sanctions on Tehran “has explicitly been included in the text and remains our fixed position.”

Rubio said that “even as I speak to you now there is some work being done. There is a chance that whether it’s later today, tomorrow, in a couple of days we may have something to say.”

Rubio repeated the US stance that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon and must turn over its highly enriched uranium, and the Strait of Hormuz must be open.

Iran claims it has rebuilt military assets after weeks of war and then a fragile ceasefire, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said after the meeting Pakistan Field Marshal Asim Munir, Iran state TV reported.

Qalibaf, the lead negotiator in the historic face-to face talks with the US last month, also said the result would be “more crushing and more bitter” than at the start of the war if US President Donald Trump resumes attacks (AP).

Trump had said ‘serious negotiations’ were underway

Trump earlier said he was holding off on a military strike against Iran because “serious negotiations” were underway and at the request of Persian Gulf allies.

Trump has repeatedly set deadlines for Tehran and then backed off, earning him the moniker of ‘TACO’ – ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’!

The US and Israel sparked the war with attacks on February 28, cutting short talks with Iran.

It is now widely known that Netanyahu goaded Trump into taking the warlike action.

Tehran retaliated by weaponizing its geography – by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, the only maritime outlet for the region’s oil, natural gas and fertilizer, causing immense global economic pain.

The US then blockaded Iranian ports – in effect ‘a blockade within a blockade’.

The US Central Command on Saturday said US forces had turned away more than 100 commercial vessels and disabled four since the blockade began on April 13.

Current state of the indirect negotiations

There was progress in the talks between Pakistan’s army chief and Iran’s leadership, two officials in Islamabad said, describing the discussions as moving “in the right direction”.

The negotiations have only reached this stage because Pakistan has continuously invested a lot in its diplomacy to bring the conflicting standpoints of the two warring sides to a fruitful resolution.

The crowning achievement would be if the two sides finally agree to sign the memorandum of understanding and embark on the long process of direct, bilateral negotiations on the contentious issues plaguing them both.

It is remarkable that Munir, the most powerful leader of Pakistan has himself taken the lead in the indirect negotiations.

If the MoU comes to fruition, it will cement Pakistan’s role as a major middle power with geostrategic relations with both the super powers and close relations with two major powers of the Middle East – Iran and Saudi Arabia.

This will also have repercussions with Pakistan’s position and role in the greater South Asia region.

Munir in Iran

Commensurate with his current commanding international role, Munir met all relevant Iranian leaders participating in the decision-making process.

He met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, President Masoud Pezeshkian and other senior, deciding officials.

Islamabad thus continues efforts to arrange a second round of direct negotiations between Iran and the U.S.

It was not clear whether Pakistan’s army chief was able to meet with Brig.Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, who heads Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guards, and has become a major player in formulating Iran’s tough stance in the negotiations.

The writer can be reached at: shashimalla125@gmail.com