By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

US President Donald Trump has created the conditions for another quagmire in the Middle East (West Asia), according to a leading opinion writer of The New York Times, and for David French the question is whether American military excellence can rescue him from his own impulsiveness and incompetence (March 21-22).

French writes that Trump’s recklessness has left the United States with few good options, and it should never have come to this situation.

In the first instance, the US Congress should have used its guard rails, and both the Republicans and Democrats should have been more vigilant.

What the U.S. and Israel have achieved

The United States and Israel have established absolute air dominance over Iran.

In a few short days, the combined US-Israel forces have destroyed Iran’s ability to protect its own airspace.

The US and Israel have killed much of Iran’s senior military and civilian leadership.

They have also sunk much of Iran’s navy.

The U.S. and Israel are also damaging Iran’s nuclear programme from the air.

And they are also destroying Iran’s ability to manufacture and deploy ballistic missiles.

They are attacking the internal security forces that maintain the Iranian regime’s hold on the population.

The intention of the air campaign is clear: to destroy the regime’s capacity to harm the neighbouring Gulf Arab countries while also creating the conditions for a revolution on the ground.

Thus, the US military is accomplishing its military mission with remarkable efficiency.

Iran is being badly battered.

Even if the Iran war ended soon, it would take years for the Iranian military to fully recover from the losses it has suffered so far.

While Iran’s drones and missiles have inflicted damage on American and Israeli forces and US allies, that damage has been far less than what the US and Israel have inflicted on Iran.

Iran has destroyed a number of drones, but there are no confirmed reports of Iran shooting down any American or Israeli aircraft.

It hasn’t yet sunk a single US or Israeli warship.

French poses the question as to why Trump is lashing out against American allies?

Why is he “shocked” that Iran has attacked Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in response to American strikes against Iran?

According to The Wall Street Journal, Gen. Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, had warned Trump that Iran might attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz, but Trump had shrugged off the threat and launched the US attack on Iran anyway.

“He told his team that Tehran would likely capitulate before closing the strait,” the Journal wrote, “and even if Iran tried, the U.S. military could handle it.”

But Iran did not capitulate!

There is as yet no real sign that the clerical regime in Iran is in danger of falling.

Instead, it has effectively closed the strait, and it has reportedly done so without choking off it own oil exports.

Thus while other nations cannot ship oil through the strait, Iran is defying the U.S. and is still doing so.

As things now stand, Iran can still potentially plunge the world economy into a stage of crisis (NYT).

And it could well enough emerge from the latest conflict with its regime intact – and perhaps even more hard-line.

Its power over the world economy could be undiminished.

The Institute for the Study of War described the current problem well: “A weakened regime that remains in power after this war would be able to disrupt shipping whenever and for however long it pleases with little effort if its current, relatively limited, strike campaign on shipping proves sufficient to cause U.S. and Israel to surrender.  

Latest Developments

Trump says the US and Iran have held ‘productive’ talks on ending the war in the Middle East as he postpones strikes on Iranian power plants (BBC, March 23).

Trump said the US and Iran have held talks on the “complete and total resolution of hostilities” with Iran.

He says he will “postpone any and all strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure” for a five day period.

Gulf countries caught between Trump’s deadline and Iran’s threats

The UAE’s foreign minister has said “we will never be blackmailed by terrorists” (BBC).

There is pure anger in the Gulf about how this war has unfolded, but not all leaders agree on the way forward following Trump’s ultimatum, and threats exchanged between the US and Iran.

After the extensive damage at Qatar’s Ras Laffan gas field and the targeting of other facilities across the region, leaders aren ‘t taking Iran’s threat lightly.

In the UAE, the country’s ties to the US may have made it a target, but officials say Iran has misjudged their reaction, and that far from urging Trump to end the war, they now view Iran as a priority threat in their region.

UAE presidential advisor Anwar Gargash has said Iran’s “misguided calculations” have pushed the UAE to seek closer security ties with Washington.

Along with Bahrain, it was one of the only Gulf countries to sign a joint statement alongside European leaders and others, expressing their “readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia has already expelled two Iranian diplomats and the government has said what “little trust” there was before the war has been “shattered”.

No matter their differing views, should Iran’s regime survive this war, it will likely find itself even more isolated than before, with countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia less focused on diplomacy and more on deterrence.

The writer can be reached at:

shashimalla125@gmail.com