By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel
Just recently, the world’s largest democratic country concluded its 18th Lok Sabha (lower House of the Parliament) elections amidst big fanfare. The election result surprised everyone as no party got the majority to stake a claim to form the new government. The BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi got 240 seats falling short of an outright majority. Unlike the last two elections, Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) needs its alliance partners to cross the 272 majority mark in the 543-seat lower house of parliament. Modi has secured the backing of his political allies to form the government under his leadership for the third time.
After a successful tenure as Chief Minister of Gujrat, Modi became the Prime Minister of India for the first time in 2014 followed by 2019 for the second time. During his both stints, he transformed India in socio-economic, political and military aspects. Under his watch, India successfully hosted the G-20 Summit. Likewise, India became the first country to land on the South Pole of the moon. His demonization move broke the backbone of terrorism and terrorist activities in India. In plain words, Modi became a household name in India.
But in the third term, Modi will be walking on the eggshells. Logically speaking, unlike his first and second terms in office, PM Modi’s third term will be fraught with many challenges and it will not be easy sailing for him because this time it is a coalition government.
According to reports, after the Lok Sabha elections in Gujrat, the BJP is facing allegations that some of its leaders acted against its own candidates. There are even reports that nearly 10-12 BJP leaders are keen on switching over to Trinumal Congress in Bengal. If this happens, the Modi-led government will suffer another setback as its national tally will sink to the 230s from the present 240 seats making PM Modi even more dependent on unreliable allies of the National Democratic Alliance. This is a grave challenge for Modi and how he tackles this problem remains to be seen.
Modi will be relying on his allies which comprise unpredictable leaders like Chandrababu Naidu of Telugu Desam Party and Nitish Kumar of Janta Dal (United). No saner mind would agree with the fact that both will join the BJP-led government without any bags and baggage. Both are known for their unpredictable character in Indian politics. They will certainly plan to leverage the seats they have won to negotiate plum portfolios in the cabinet.
The support will come at a price. Unlike 2019, when the JD (U) won 16 seats but was offered a single ministerial berth since the BJP was in the majority on its own. But this time, the BJP lack an outright majority and is likely to succumb to the demands of its allies. How PM Modi will deal with such pressure will test his leadership and managerial skills.
At the same time, Naidu is demanding the special category status for Andhra Pradesh since the Modi government came to power in 2014. Nitish Kumar has also been demanding the same ever since Jharkhand was carved out of Bihar in 2000. Both leaders have emerged as key to government formation at Centre, and are likely to raise the special category state demand with the BJP. It would be extremely difficult to address their demands because it would increase the fiscal burden. This is yet another challenge which has to be dealt with diplomatically and tacitly.
Apart from these challenges within the alliance which may not be in sync with everything on the BJP’s agenda, Modi has to contend with the stronger and aggressive opposition. In their post-result comments, opposition leaders from Rahul Gandhi to Mamata Banerjee described the BJP’s failure to secure a majority of its own as PM Modi’s defeat. The PM Modi should not be swayed by such comments as it will erode his statesmanship. This is where he has to move cautiously.
Many political observers say that BJP’s poor performance in the just concluded Lok Sabha elections was due to its growing arrogance and its inability to understand the nerves of the people who were struggling with day-to-day problems. Unemployment was taking a high toll on the lives of the people. Even the BJP spokesperson Gopal Krishna Agrawal has accepted that unemployment has been the major challenge of his party. India Forbes in its recent edition came up with a report stating that joblessness and rising food prices are the real challenges of BJP and its allies. Modi’s strategy to deal with this problem will be closely observed by the opposition.
Indian farmers have been protesting for long demanding a law to guarantee a minimum price for crops, farmer’s pensions and debt waiver among others. This issue will continue to hunt Modi even in his third term as well. As he will be leading a coalition government, the partners are less likely to be in sync with everything on the BJP agenda. How will handle such demands while keeping the coalition partners intact is a real challenge to him.
Along with internal challenges, Modi will be facing international challenges as well. The US has changed its tune and has been in an overdrive, praising India, the Indian PM, and India’s vibrant democracy. This is not to say that the US will stop interfering in Indian affairs entirely, but rather that it will slow down for a while. Modi is mindful of the fact that the US will foster its relationship with India to counterbalance the rise of China. However, it remains a fact that the US has yet to earn India’s complete trust, and India cannot ignore its geographical reality of being in a neighborhood driven by the hostility of varying degrees from and towards the US.
We as an immediate and friendly neighbor believe that Modi will be able to tackle all challenges amicably. We also believe that we will foster our bilateral relationship with India in his third term. We wish him a successful third term.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
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