By P.R. Pradhan
Balendra Shah, former mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, is almost certain to become the next prime minister of the country. A seven-point agreement was signed between Shah and Rabi Lamichhane, chairman of the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), under which it was agreed that Shah would lead the government while Lamichhane would head the party after Shah joined the RSP. During the election campaign, the RSP projected Shah as its prime ministerial candidate and assured voters that he would lead the government if the party won the election. The party virtually secured a two-thirds majority after Shah joined it.
However, some sections have raised suspicions about the RSP’s sweeping victory. They argue that until 3 pm on March 5, the total voter turnout was only around 30 percent, and question how it doubled within just two hours. Some political leaders have also alleged irregularities, claiming that ballot boxes were kept under the control of the Nepal Army in the absence of representatives of the candidates. Be that as it may, since all political parties have accepted the election results, there remains little option but to accept the outcome.
Shah is set to establish several new records. He defeated former prime minister and chairman of the UML, K. P. Sharma Oli, in the latter’s electoral constituency, Jhapa-5, by a wide margin. The RSP, which had been embroiled in several controversies due to its chairman Lamichhane’s alleged involvement in different scandals, including money laundering and cooperative fraud, gained renewed popularity after Shah joined the party.
The party won 125 seats under the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) system and also secured more than 50 percent of the votes in the proportional representation system, through which 57 additional candidates became members of parliament. This brought the party’s total to 182 seats—just one seat short of a two-thirds majority.
Considering the results of previous elections, many believed that no single party could secure even a simple majority. However, the RSP has nearly achieved a two-thirds majority, sweeping aside major established and traditional parties. This development is truly exceptional.
It is widely believed that various factors, including the influence of the American “deep state,” played a significant role in the emergence of the RSP as a powerful political force. Earlier, we had predicted that the March 5 elections were designed to establish the RSP as the largest party, and this prediction now appears to have been proven correct.
Nevertheless, the political agenda of the RSP on many major issues remains unclear. According to its election manifesto, the party supports the present constitution based on federalism, secularism, and republicanism. In foreign policy, it has expressed its commitment to neutrality and a non-aligned approach in dealing with foreign countries. The party has also pledged to promote transparency, good governance, and an end to anomalies in the political system. Moreover, some indications suggest that it may consider adopting a political system similar to the American model of a directly elected executive president.
However, influential leaders of the party have not clearly explained the broader political framework they intend to follow. Apart from promises of transparency and good governance, it is still too early to fully understand the party’s long-term political agenda.
In our view, the current political structure is beyond the capacity of the country’s domestic revenue mechanism and has become too expensive to sustain. Therefore, the size of parliament should be reduced, the provincial structure should be abolished, and the number of local bodies should be decreased in line with the recommendations of the commission formed to restructure state bodies prior to the drafting of the constitution.
The role of Nepal’s presidents has also repeatedly been surrounded by controversy. Therefore, it will be appropriate to remove the provision of a president and consider restoring a constitutional monarchy. In a country like Nepal, a system with a directly elected executive head may not prove beneficial.
If the RSP recognizes these realities and addresses them appropriately, the nation could move forward toward stability and prosperity.
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