By P.R. Pradhan
The results of the March 5, 2026 elections in Nepal appeared almost magical, though for many observers they were not entirely unexpected. The developments leading to the election can be traced to the Gen Z unrest of September 8 and 9, which some analysts believe began as a youth protest but was later hijacked by foreign-supported networks, particularly American INGOs.
One initiative in this context is the US Embassy Youth Council (USYC), established in 2011. Each year it trains around 50 to 55 Nepali youths from across the country in community leadership and civic engagement. Several international organizations—including the NED, IRI, NDI, and the Open Society Foundation—have also been active in Nepal for years. These organizations have supported local NGOs such as the Barbara Foundation, Hami Nepali, and others, while engaging with media institutions and political leaders.
One outcome of such networks was the rise of independent figures such as Balen Shah and Harka Sampang, who were elected mayors in major municipalities. These developments were followed by the formation of new political platforms, initially the Sajha-Sajansheel Party and later the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), the latter emerged as a major political force.
These changes occurred when traditional political parties were widely criticized for corruption, poor governance, favoritism, nepotism, and political patronage. Public frustration created an environment in which alternative political forces could gain support. This dissatisfaction also allowed networks supported by Western institutions to promote a new political agenda.
The BBC released a documentary critics described as one-sided, while some Nepali news portals published exit polls predicting a sweeping victory for the RSP. One media outlet claimed it had deployed 40 reporters across the country to collect election data. However, given the financial difficulties faced by many Nepali media organizations—many of which struggle to pay regular salaries—such an effort appeared unrealistic. Some reports suggested the exit poll data was circulated by NGOs before the election. The predictions nevertheless proved accurate when the RSP achieved significant electoral success.
Financial influence is also considered important. One US dollar converts to roughly 150 Nepali rupees, giving foreign organizations a significant financial advantage. This disparity can make it easier for external actors to influence political leaders, intellectuals, and social influencers.
Following the September unrest that resulted in the deaths of 77 youths, former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was appointed prime minister through political negotiations. Instead of suspending the constitution or establishing a transitional arrangement, her government announced elections for the House of Representatives on March 5. The decision was inconsistent with constitutional procedures, yet the Karki administration still received domestic and international recognition.
It is expected that Balen (Balendra) Shah could emerge as a future prime minister. However, individual leaders may matter less if policy directions are influenced by external actors.
Nepal’s geopolitical position makes these concerns particularly significant. Situated between two major powers—India and China—the country occupies a sensitive strategic location. Any miscalculation in foreign policy could therefore have serious consequences.
Historically, American engagement with Nepal was often conducted through India. However, as rivalry between the United States and China has intensified, Washington appears to be pursuing a more direct presence in the region, including in Nepal and Bangladesh.
From this perspective, the March 5 elections can be viewed within a broader geopolitical context. Nepal has increasingly attracted American strategic interest. Programs such as the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), often linked to the wider Indo-Pacific Strategy, are seen as instruments of soft power engagement. Discussions about the State Partnership Program (SPP) have also raised questions about possible security cooperation.
The US Embassy’s congratulatory message following the elections highlighted this dimension, expressing interest in working with Nepal on “shared goals of prosperity and security.” For many observers, such language reflects the broader strategic implications of Nepal’s recent political transformation.
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