*Is Nepal a Secular State?
*Western Tanks Can Change the Ukraine War
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal: A Secular State?
Nepal is definitely a secular state – but only on paper!
The politicians of the current dispensation have caused havoc. Leading the charge is none other than Federal President Shrimati Bidya Bhandari Ji.
Secularism which is anchored in Nepal’s Constitution means the complete detachment of the state and state institutions from religious foundations.
Secularism is commonly defined as the separation of religion from civil affairs and the state, and also seeks to remove or to minimize the role of religion in the public sphere.
This also means that the President of the Republic cannot ape the religious practices of the former royals.
It is absolutely not proper that the President, like the former Shah monarchs, participates in and/or leads religious functions in an official capacity.
It does not matter that the most important religious festivals are also national ones – the Constitution has the last say.
[She/He is, of course, is free to visit temples/mosques/churches, etc., etc. privately – but she/he is definitely not interested when the official pomp and show is missing!
Constitutionally, it is a very pressing matter that the President no longer participates in:
- Visiting Pashupatinath
- Swayambhunath & Bodnath
- Showing the Sacred Vest of Macchendranath in Jawalakhel
- Indra Jatra, especially visiting the Royal Kumari and seeking her blessings
- Giving ‘Tika’ in Dasain.
All of this, of course, in an official capacity.
The President is not an ‘Ersatz Queen’ [substitute] and should not act as if she is a reigning queen [uncrowned!].
If most of the political parties in parliament are not interested in this significant breach of the Constitution, we can, at least, hope that the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party and the Rashtriya Swatantra Party will not let sleeping dogs lie.
Western Tanks in Ukrain: Game Changers?
It is possible that last week has dramatically changed in Ukraine’s favour.
It was definitely a decisive moment, with a coalition of Western nations in NATO confirming they were finally willing to supply latest modern-made main battle tanks (BBC, Jan. 28).
Germany said it would send Leopard 2 tanks and the US said it would send M1 Abrams tanks [their own manufacture].
Both the UK [with its Challenger tank] and Poland [with Leopards]have already made concrete pledges, and other nations are expected to follow.
Military experts have described the move as a “potential game-changer”.
All these tanks are capable of ramming through enemy lines and retake territory.
Tanks: Potent Weapons
Used effectively, tanks provide mobile firepower, protection, shock and surprise.
Concentrated in numbers, they can dislocate an enemy’s defences.
But they also need support of artillery to first weaken those defences and then the support of infantry to hold retaken ground.
History has shown that tanks alone do not win battles. The British first used hundreds of tanks at the Battle of Cambrai in November 1917 in WW I – to end the deadlock of static trench warfare. Initially they made significant advances, but many tanks soon broke down and a German counter offensive turned British gains turned to losses.
Tanks can also be used in defence.
In 1940 (WW II) they were used by the retreating British and French armies at Arras to stall the German Wehrmacht invasion, allowing the subsequent evacuation of British troops from Dunkirk.
Ukraine has made clear that it wants weapons both for defence and attack not just to stall any potential spring offensive, but to re-conquer its own territory annexed illegally by Russia – to go on the attack itself!
Ukraine Can Use New Tanks as Attack Spearheads
Military experts say it would make little sense for Ukraine to disperse its new tanks across a frontline of more than 1,000 km.
To break through Russian defences, Ukraine will need to concentrate its combined forces – possibly over an area of between only five and 20 km.
Col. (retd.) Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, formerly of the British Army’s Royal Tank Regiment, says numbers do matter for a breakthrough.
If Ukraine had more battle tanks, it could try to conduct simultaneous offensive operations in different places as it did last year in the north and the south of the country.
Primacy of ‘Combined Operations’
Additional support will be required for what the military call “combined arms manoeuvre”.
Thus, the UK is not just sending Ukraine 14 Challenger tanks, but also 30 artillery self-propelled guns and armoured vehicles to carry and protect troops.
The new package of military support also includes mine breaching and bridge-laying vehicles. These are essential elements needed for any offensive operation.
The US is also providing Ukraine with more than 100 Bradley and Stryker armoured vehicles.
Germany is supplying additional 40 of its Marder infantry fighting vehicles.
Tanks are the tip of the spear, designed to move quickly over open ground.
The Challenger 2, Leopard 2 and M1 Abrams are faster than most Russian-made tanks with speeds of more than 40 km per hour.
It seems that Ukraine will soon out-gun and out-fox Vladimir Putin – who should be at his wits end!
However, in a clear case of sour grapes, Russian state media has been mocking Western tanks as “toothless” and “battered” — and will be set ablaze on the battlefield.
Tanks Can Launch Surprise Attacks at Night
Retd. Col. De Bretton Gordon, who commanded a British Challenger squadron of tanks, says one of the big advantages of Western-made tanks is their ability to operate at night.
Attacks under the cover of darkness also add to the element of shock and surprise.
The Road Ahead
Ukraine is also waiting for the West to respond to its repeated request for modern warplanes.
An army attacking on the ground will need protection from the air.
There is now exhilarating hope that Ukraine may be able to mount an offensive as soon as this spring.
There is now a window of opportunity while Russia struggles to recruit and rebuild its battered forces, and to replenish it ever dwindling supplies of ammunition.
Against all the odds, Ukraine has managed to prove the doubters wrong until now.
However, it will still need more Western support if it is to achieve its paramount goal of expelling the detested Russian forces from the homeland.
Putin’s New Strategy
As the Russia-Ukraine war enters the 12th month and Russia loses thousands of soldiers, Vladimir Putin, it seems, is planning everything to win it.
The Russian president is reportedly preparing a new offensive in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy dismisses Putin’s nuclear threat, in effect denying that Putin has any red lines.
Zelenskyy insists Putin knows he would be ‘unable’ to ‘preserve’ own life after launching a nuclear attack.
After losing thousands of soldiers in the past few months, Russia aims to demonstrate that it is capable of regaining control of the war and putting pressure on Ukraine and its allies to agree to negotiate on its terms.
Since Putin is getting nowhere in conventional warfare, he is concentrating in terrorizing the civilian populations by targeting his missile attacks on residential buildings, hospitals, schools and civilian infrastructure.
The would-be czar is now the Russian ‘Evil Incarnate’.
- The Kremlin has announced plans to reinforce the Russian army by 350,000 new troops.
But how will it finance the new plan?
It will require many resources, not just money and personnel. It requires equipment and infrastructure for the new conscripts. In addition, specialists are needed to train the new recruits.
It does seem that Putin is building castles in the air.
Moreover, the war could be long over before the scheme reaches fruition!
- According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the mercenary Wagner Group, fighting alongside regular Russian troops, is in disarray amid “significant” war losses.
The leadership, including Yevgeny Prigozhin is reputedly competing for influence among pro-war ‘nationalist patronage networks within the Kremlin’ disillusioned with the progress of the war (Newsweek, Jan. 27).
- Abbas Gallyamov, a former political consultant and ex-speechwriter to Putin writes: “As problems pile up in the country and army, that the authorities are unable to solve, Putin is more steadily transforming in people’s eyes from a great strategist, to an ordinary, second-rate dictator” (Business Insider).
Problems on the battlefield and Putin’s weak, confused and disorganized war leadership are creating rifts among Russia’s generals.
Additionally, according to Gallyamov, the vast majority of the commanders in the military are not staunch supporters of the authoritarian regime, but run-of-the-mill opportuinists.
These growing frustrations could lay the groundwork for a possible military coup in the country.
Putin himself must soldier on: it’s now or never.
Putin: The Lonely Autocrat
Putin has a major problem on his hands – his so-called allies won’t help fight in Ukraine!
He has tried to convince the non-western world that he will bring “multipolarity” back.
To bring the multipolar world in order to overturn long-standing American hegemony, the Russian President has attempted to form a coalition of countries that are willing to join the combat against Ukraine, but his “allies” have not supported his war in any way.
Central Asia
President Tokayev of Kazakhstan who was backed by Moscow to crush internal dissidence has become one of the Kremlin’s biggest critics thus far.
Tokayev is starting to look to China and Turkey as its future economic and security partners.
Other Central Asian nations under Russia’s sphere of influence have also not lifted a finger to help during the war.
Syria
Despite recognizing Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the faux referendums, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has not militarily supported Russia.
In fact, after being extremely weakened, Russia has gradually withdrawn its top officers from Syria to Ukraine.
Armenia
The country was once dependent on Russia for its security as it was geographically sandwiched between hostile nations – Turkey and Iran in the south and Azerbaijan in the west.
Yerevan’s relations with Moscow has hit an all-time low. The Kremlin has barely lifted a finger when Armenia needed it the most – in its conflict with Azerbaijan (1945).
India
India and Russia have a close knit relation since India’s independence in 1947, and New Delhi has not provided military support for Ukraine, but rather has taken advantage of Russian discounted oil.
Usually siding with Russia as they have been a historical counterbalance to China’s incursions on India’s borders.
With Beijing gaining influence in Moscow, this puts New Delhi in a precarious situation, which it is attempting to counterbalance by leaning on US-backed military associations.
India’s PM Modi did state tepidly “now is not an era for war” signaling a certain displeasure, but not condemnation of the ongoing conflict, as demonstrated by abstaining on multiple UN resolutions.
This is not the stance of a would-be major power. India’s attempt to juggle its various great-power relationships looks pathetic at best.
China
China has overtaken Russia in economic development and military might.
Putin has relied on monetary assistance from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to keep his economy afloat, but has not received military support thus far.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has signaled his disappointment on the threat of using nuclear weapons by Russia.
Currently faced with its own demographic crisis, economic decline and standoff over Taiwan, China is concentrating in quelling its own domestic problems.
Serbia
Serbia and Russia have had a close relationship, as the Russian Empire helped Serbia gain its independence from the Ottoman Turks.
There is also ethnic Slav affinity and the connection of the Orthodox Christian Church.
However, in the 21st century, these relations are at a crossroads.
There is also anger that the mercenary Russian Wagner Group recruited heavily in Serbia.
Iran
One of the worst rogue regimes today, Iran has been one of the biggest suppliers of military hardware to Russia today, sending Shahed drones and potentially ballistic missiles.
It is barely controlling a massive nation-wide rebellion in pursuit of fundamental freedoms.
Iran’s military support is primarily to combat test their weaponry in a conventional war as potential armed conflict with Israel and the U.S. looms.
Iran has now suffered a devastating drone attack at a major weapons facility in centrally located Isfahan.
There are few organizations globally besides the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad to have the sort of advanced strike capabilities displayed in the operation (The Jerusalem Post, Jan.29).
North Korea
The ‘hermit kingdom’ of North Korea has recognized Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian sovereign territory, including the Donbas, and has quietly sent shells to help Russia’s stagnant war effort.
North Korea shares a very slight border with the Russian Federation in the north-east, but there could still be some illegal trade [against U.S. and UN sanctions].
However, as the country remains completely physically and politically isolated in international affairs with one of the weakest economies on earth, its support means little in the Ukraine war and is only of symbolic nature.
Belarus
Alexander Lukashenko is Putin’s closest ally and has been complicit to Russian military operations throughout the invasion.
Belarus is surrounded by NATO countries in the north and west [Latvia, Lithuania, Poland], Ukraine in the south, and Russia in the north and west – thus completely landlocked.
Allowing the Kremlin to use his country as a launching pad, tens of thousands Russian forces poured into northern Ukraine through Belarusian borders.
However, despite the logistical support, Lukashenko has been wary of formally intervening.
The cunning autocrat knows the possibility of a civilian uprising or military mutiny if Belarus formally joins the war, as he is highly unpopular among his own people.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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