National/Regional/International
By N. P. Upadhyaya (Aryal)
Kathmandu: Senior political analysts in South Asia had predicted much in advance that the emergence of a liberal democratic leader in the USA as President, Joe Biden will definitely prefer reconciliation over confrontation with China. Contrary to the expectations worldwide, in the initial period confrontation prevailed.
After a long-drawn affray with China on Taiwan over Nancy Pelosi’s visit, the US and China ties had touched a new low and then an exchange of fiery war of words commenced which had almost alarmed the world population for some time.
Nancy Pelosi was in Taiwan on August 2. To recall, Beijing considers Taiwan part of its own territory which has no right whatsoever to conduct foreign relations.
If Taiwan is a renegade for Beijing then on the contrary Taiwan takes itself absolutely as an independent and sovereign nation which enjoys, primarily, excellent ties with the US-the lone superpower.
By the way, Taiwan is also a major buyer of US weapons which is what appears to have annoyed China to a greater extent.
The US has so far remained undeterred and continues to back the Taiwanese government despite the disliking of the Chinese side.
Nixon accepts One China Policy:
China in all fairness demands that US-China relations be governed as per the agreement struck between the two countries in Shanghai in the year 1972.
It was in this year that the US President, Richard Nixon, had taken a daring step by making a “calculated” trip to China in order to normalize and then expand its ties with an estranged country-China.
Nixon was assisted then by the US top diplomat, Henry Kissinger.
The respective teams led by President Nixon and Chinese Prime Minister Premier Zhou En-Lai had entered into an agreement, later known as the Shanghai Communique – a document that had charted both individual and common interests, and had articulated a “One-China” policy.
Since then in ‘paper’ the US adhered to the one-China policy but kept teasing China in its desired way with a special focus on Taiwan and on Tibetan issues.
Tibet is taken as the underbelly of mainland China.
It was President Nixon’s 1972 China visit that regulated US-China relations and the US in effect had agreed to abide by the “One China” policy since then.
However, the excessive hobnobbing of the US with Taiwan in the years that followed after the issuance of the Shanghai communique was the main political reason that had distanced China from the US.
Nancy Pelosi’s travel to Taiwan apparently compelled China to inch towards the Russian Federation and with the Ukraine crisis (invasion?), Russia too clearly exhibited a visible tilt towards China to “show strength”. In doing so, both China and Russia had their national interests.
It was perhaps a “balancing act” for both China and Russia in their own calculations and definitions.
The balancing race and Pakistan:
And it was this undeclared China-Russia alliance that in more ways than one brought Pakistan into the picture for a variety of issues in South Asia’s regional politics.
Because of China’s advanced ties with Pakistan through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the Russian Federation too had no hesitation in the changed context in forging cordial ties with Pakistan which had already inched closer to Russia from the time of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan ( June 14, 2019).
It was at this meeting in Bishkek that Prime Minister Imran Khan and Russian President Vladimir Putin forged a new bond with each other which made then the Russian foreign minister drop in Islamabad straight from Delhi.
Speaking candidly, the Russian envoy in Delhi, Nikolai Kudashev had already hinted to Delhi that Islamabad too was a reliable friend of Moscow.
“For Moscow, Islamabad is equally important as is New Delhi”, is what Kudashev bluntly said.
This was a direct hint to Delhi from Moscow that the latter is not happy with Delhi for its changing of the camp.
Putin came closer to Pakistan as its traditional ally in South Asia-India had changed the camp and gone into the fold of the US-designed security mechanism-the QUAD.
For Putin Pakistan was a compelling choice for South Asia in order to send signals to India that if you change the camp then we now have an equally competent and recognized regional force in South Asia that is Pakistan.
In doing so, Russia in many more ways than one enhanced Pakistan’s prestige in the comity of nations and more so in South Asia’s regional politics.
However, Pakistan has yet to recognize its potential and capabilities in South Asia. This is unfortunate.
The China-Russia undeclared alliance clearly annoyed the US in its own way and the latter was thus forced to devise some mechanism in order once again to normalize its stressed ties with China because, with Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the US-China ties had come to a nadir. The Taiwan envoy’s presence:
Needless to say, the Taiwan issue at regular intervals brings both China and the US face to face much to the annoyance of the peace-loving global population.
To recall that Taiwan is very near and dear to the US administration came to light for the first time when the Taiwan envoy to Washington, Hsiao Bi-khim, attended Biden’s swearing-in ceremony in January 2021.
Her presence at the inaugural occasion made it almost clear that the US is likely to confront China with all its strength come what may.
For Taipei’s part, the invitation and the subsequent presence of the Taiwanese envoy was a “significant breakthrough” in relations with Washington, Taiwan’s official Central News Agency quoted an unnamed inside source as saying.
However, despite the strained ties following the Taiwan trip Pelosi, the US had cleverly kept the line of communications open with China and the same was once again reiterated by the “liberal US President” Joe Biden while meeting the Chinese President Xi Jinping in Bali, Indonesia, November 14.
Matured analysts claim that the presence of the Taiwan Ambassador at Biden’s inaugural ceremony was perhaps a deliberate act of the US to read China’s mood as to how it reacts to the US move.
Chao Deng and Chun Han Wong wrote for the Wall Street Journal on January 21 that when asked about the Taiwan envoy’s presence at the ceremony, China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Ms Hua Chunying reiterated Beijing’s longstanding opposition to official interactions between the U.S. and Taiwan but stopped short of condemning the U.S. gesture as provocative.
China in effect took a fairly conciliatory stance on its ties with the US. In other words, China avoided confronting the US over the Ambassador’s presence in Washington at the time of Biden’s swearing-in ceremony.
This does mean that the Chinese side wanted to take some time to read President Joe Biden’s inner motives on Taiwan before it exploded on the US over Taiwan’s envoy’s presence at the important US event.
Encouraged by China’s non-action on the presence of Ambassador Hsiao Bi-khim at President Biden’s inaugural/swearing-in ceremony, prompted US Speaker Nancy Pelosi to make a sudden yet daring dash to Taiwan in August.
Some sources in Washington said that the Biden administration was not in favor of Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan as it was sure to further bring troubles to the already strained US and China ties.
However, other sources claim that Nancy’s visit to Taiwan was all but a planned affair but portrayed as if the visit was Pelosi’s own discretion which had nothing to do with the Biden administration.
This time China reacted with full force and the US-China ties instantly took a different turn and touched their lowest ebb with the commencement of the exchange of verbal war of words between the two recognized and competent political rivals — the US and China.
The Bali meet and US-China ties:
However, wisdom appears to have prevailed on both the confronting sides, both the US and China, while meeting in Bali, Indonesia for the G20 Summit on November 14 have reconciled with each other and apparently vowed not to flare up the political differences on some “key” international issues in the days ahead for the good of the world peace.
Biden even said to the newly elected Chinese President Xi Jinping, “Let’s forget the past” and China’s strongman responded positively.
Biden must have concluded that since the entire Chinese strength is with Russia, it would not be advisable for him to further tease China.
Needless to say, China and Russia are on the same page and conclude that world politics can’t run under the whims of the USA.
Both Russia and China converge in saying that both wish to defend the international system with the United Nations at its core.
“We’re going to compete vigorously, but I’m not looking for conflict,” Biden said at a news conference after the meeting. “I’m looking to manage this competition responsibly.”
In response, President Xi said, “As the leaders of these two great powers, China and the United States, we must play the role of setting the direction of the rudder, and we should find the correct approach for developing bilateral relations.”
This should mean that the US and China have once again agreed not to treat each other as conflicting rivals but instead take each other as healthy “competitors”.
With this patch, should this mean that the US will abandon teasing China on Taiwan, Tibet and other several issues where the two big powers differ sharply?
All in all, President Biden in a subtle manner has accepted that the US shall benefit if and when it keeps warm relations with China.
“The United States stands ready to do just that — work with you — if that’s what you desire,” Biden said.
Isn’t it enough to believe that Joe Biden talked about peace with China?
Wait! Wait! Wait!
President Xi responded by saying, “history is the best textbook, so we should take history as a mirror and let it guide the future.” And China too has felt in Bali, Indonesia, that “confrontation” must be replaced by “reconciliation”.
Our early predictions have come true.
Unhappy India may create problems:
The fresh US-China détente perhaps shall distance India from the US and chances are fair that India will inch even more closer to Russia.
It is this Indian political shift in South Asia that shall allow Pakistan to come closer to the US in addition to China and the Russian Federation.
As China is already an “iron” friend of Pakistan and thus it is time that Pakistan must extract political benefits from the “alignments” and realignments” that are taking shape now and then.
Alignments and realignments of smaller countries shall continue for some time as the US-China détente has far-reaching impacts and ensuing political consequences.
In politics, there are neither permanent enemies nor friends.
Countries only wish to secure their national interests.
However, Pakistan must not annoy Russia as the new Russia-India friendship is all but the Ukraine factor as India has been soft on Russia regarding Ukraine.
Pakistan can play its diplomatic cards under its sleeves in a way that neither annoys the US nor the Russians.
The Pakistan factor:
The twist seen in US-China ties after the G20 meet in Bali has surely awarded “enough” space to regional powers like Pakistan for political manoeuvring to establish itself as a genuine regional force in South Asia-a fitting match to hegemon India.
But how? Let it be decided by foreign policy veterans of Pakistan and the new Army Chief, Lt. General Asim Munir (former spymaster) who by this time must have taken up his most authoritative seat.
How smart, speaking in diplomatic terms, the new Army Chief shall be watched carefully in entire South Asia.
Needless to say, the Pakistan Army Chief is a dominant political force that presumably commands national politics and external relations.
How Gen. Munir plays a role in striking a balance between China, the US and Russia shall have to be watched.
The Indian factor too will test his (Munir’s) political acumen indeed.
But politics keeps on changing and so do the alignments and realignments. So let’s keep our fingers crossed.
Yet we trust President Biden who has said in Bali, “I absolutely believe there need not be a new Cold War”.
Let’s hope that the US sticks to its commitments made in Bali and also believe that China too responds to the US desire in an appropriate manner”.
President Xi’s statement, “the two countries should take history as a mirror and let it guide the future” is the desire for peace and a desire to work with the US in the days and years ahead. This is encouraging.
Peace must prevail over conflict, this should be the bottom line.
The net loss of the US-China long-awaited rapprochement will be to expansionist India as India’s expected to “tease” China with the US backing has evaporated at least for the time being.
India’s dangerous plans in Nepal:
But India will not settle for less. India has some treacherous plans for South Asia which warns even the US not to harm Indian interests in areas which were traditionally under the Indian sphere of influence.
An article authored by Vedanta Choudhary, Avinav Singh Khatri and Sankalpa Chakrabarti in “The National Interest” on November 16 clearly states that “India welcomes the US engagement with Nepal, as long as a such dialogue between Kathmandu and Washington either promotes New Delhi’s interests or promotes the interest of either party without causing harm to Delhi’s interests in the region”.
The article further says that with US increased presence in Kathmandu, China will have twin obstacles of India and the US strategically, thereby diverting China’s sole attention from India”.
It is clearly a sponsored article. Nepal clearly is the venue of a big tussle between the US, China and India. The upcoming days for Nepal appear frightening. That’s all.
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