By Nirmal P. Acharya
Regardless of its political direction, Nepal must confront the historical challenge of transforming from a “landlocked country” into a “land-linked nation” in order to achieve development.
In recent years, the government has also proposed a development strategy of building a trans-Himalayan three-dimensional interconnection network, transforming Nepal from a landlocked country into a land-linked country. The intention is to open up both north-south and east-west channels, making Nepal a key hub connecting China and South Asia.
For a long time, 98% of Nepal’s imported and exported goods have had to pass through Indian ports to reach the sea. The trade route is monotonous and the logistics costs are high. Nepal is often pressured and restricted by India through the issue of transit rights. By connecting the China-Nepal highway, the China-Nepal railway, and the Gyirong/Zamboora border ports, Nepal can open up a second international logistics channel to China, East Asia, and Central Asia. This will enable Nepal to break away from the dependence on a single channel and the total logistics cost is expected to decrease by more than 40%.
If this vision comes true, Nepal will transform from an inland small country sandwiched between India and China into a transit hub that connects the industrial chain in East Asia with the consumer market in South Asia. It will handle transit freight, storage, and transshipment trade, and the cross-border logistics industry will thrive. The country will enter a fast development track.
However, to transform from a “landlocked country” to a “road-linked country”, several challenges need to be overcome:
1. Strategic containment and pressure from India;
2. Extreme natural geographical conditions, making infrastructure construction extremely difficult;
3. Weak finances, with a huge funding gap;
4. Political instability, resulting in poor policy continuity;
5. Fragile economic structure and insufficient industrial capacity;
6. Ecological and social risks;
7. The diplomatic balance problem under the backdrop of major power competition.
Any of the aforementioned challenges can be said to be beyond Nepal’s ability to handle on its own.
How to achieve this transformative change through external forces is a major issue that the Nepalese government cannot avoid. Without the injection of strong external forces, Nepal will not be able to escape the predicament of being a “landlocked country”.
Looking around the world, the external forces that might be able to empower Nepal are essentially from the West (the Western countries led by the United States), the South (India), and the North (China).
Take a look at the ceasefire memorandum recently reached between the United States and Iran. It has been characterized by the mainstream media in the US as a surrender document. It seems that Iran is draining the US, and the US has little remaining strength to deal with other matters. India is unable to protect its people from the scorching heat, so it has neither the ability nor the motivation to help Nepal. Only China, as the world’s most powerful industrial country, stands firmly in the north of Nepal. Nepal should seriously turn its attention to the north. The north has the ability and the motivation to help Nepal become a prosperous sovereign and independent nation, so Nepal should focus more on the north.
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