Kathmandu, April 14: A report by the U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS) has described the political alliance between Kathmandu’s former independent mayor Balendra Shah (Balen) and Nepal’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) as a “marriage of convenience” rather than an ideologically driven partnership, highlighting emerging tensions and questions over the durability of Nepal’s new power structure.
Published on March 31, 2026, under the title “Nepal’s Parliamentary Elections,” the report assesses Nepal’s recent political transition, the rise of new political forces, and the broader instability shaping governance. It argues that the Balen–RSP partnership is primarily a strategic arrangement shaped by electoral opportunity and shifting public sentiment rather than shared long-term political vision.
According to the CRS, the alliance helped consolidate anti-establishment sentiment and enabled the formation of a new government, but internal differences and leadership friction could become a key source of instability in the coming years. The report specifically flags potential tensions between Balen Shah’s independent political style and RSP’s party structure.
The report places Nepal’s political turbulence in a broader context of recurring instability. It notes that between 2015 and 2025, three prime ministers formed eight different cabinets, reflecting frequent coalition changes and weak parliamentary continuity. This instability, it argues, has contributed to persistent economic challenges and governance deficits.
The RSP is described as a relatively new centrist force that has successfully attracted voters disillusioned with traditional political parties by promoting a technocratic governance agenda focused on reform and accountability. However, the report suggests that while electoral demand for change is evident, sustaining governance performance remains uncertain.
Balen Shah is portrayed as an anti-establishment figure with a reformist image but an inconsistent governance track record and limited policy clarity. The report also highlights his reliance on social media over traditional media channels to communicate with the public, reflecting a shift in political engagement styles among emerging leaders.
A major turning point in Nepal’s recent political trajectory, according to the CRS, was the youth-led protests of September 2025. The unrest began after the government banned 26 social media platforms, triggering nationwide demonstrations. The protests escalated into violence following police firing, resulting in at least 75 deaths, over 2,000 injuries, and significant economic damage.
The unrest led to the resignation of then Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli on September 9, 2025. In the aftermath, Balen declined to assume interim leadership, and an online selection process eventually installed former Chief Justice Sushila Karki as interim prime minister on September 12.
The report further notes that the March 5, 2026 elections produced a dramatic political shift, with RSP securing 182 of 275 seats, while traditional parties suffered heavy losses. The Nepali Congress won 38 seats, the CPN-UML 25, and the Maoist Centre 17. Balen Shah also defeated Oli in his constituency and was sworn in as prime minister on March 27.
The CRS warns that the new government faces major governance and economic challenges, including youth unemployment, returning migrant workers from Gulf countries, potential remittance shocks linked to Middle East conflicts, and energy shortages. It also points to unresolved accountability issues from the 2025 protests as a key political test.
On foreign policy, the report expects a pragmatic approach balancing relations with India, China, and the United States, while noting uncertainty over Nepal’s position on China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It also highlights continued U.S. interests in Nepal, including MCC assistance and concerns regarding Tibetan refugees and Chinese influence.
The CRS, established in 1914 and operating under the U.S. Library of Congress, is described as a nonpartisan research body that provides policy analysis to American lawmakers.
People’s News Monitoring Service
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