By LB Thapa
The American strategy of destabilizing sovereign nations is presented as a well-thought-out and deadly blueprint, tested over time and executed repeatedly. It consists of four stages. The first stage involves economic blockades and isolation policies. When a country challenges US dollar dominance, it is subjected to severe sanctions, trade bans, and asset freezes, crippling its economy.
As citizens suffer from scarcity and inflation, public anger toward the government rises. At this point, the second stage begins: information warfare and internal rebellion. Under the guise of media and non-governmental organizations, propaganda is spread internationally against that country’s political system.
During this phase, US intelligence agencies are portrayed as playing a double game. On one hand, they allegedly turn peaceful protests into armed conflict by providing weapons and funding to rebels. On the other, they highlight the government’s suppression of dissent as human rights abuse, creating a pretext for foreign intervention.
When the country descends into civil war, the third stage involves direct military intervention under the banner of democracy and human rights. Airstrikes are conducted, often disregarding international law, and leaders are targeted or removed.
The fourth stage is the establishment of a puppet government. A key question arises: in a country with a complex political structure like Iran, would such a strategy succeed?
In this discussion, the focus turns to whether Iran could face a similar trajectory. Looking at Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Libya under Muammar Gaddafi, and Afghanistan, one common outcome is clear: prolonged instability and societal destruction.
The devastation of Afghanistan and Yemen, along with the influence of the global petrodollar system and military intervention, is often cited as evidence of how nations can be reduced to instability. In several cases, similar patterns are argued to be visible.
Before 2003, Iraq had relatively strong education and healthcare systems by regional standards. Although Saddam Hussein was authoritarian, Iraq’s decline accelerated after the US-led invasion under the pretext of weapons of mass destruction. The aftermath included sectarian violence, instability, and the rise of extremist groups such as ISIS.
Libya experienced a comparable fate. Under Gaddafi, the country had relatively high living standards within Africa. However, in 2011, NATO intervention led to regime change. Since then, Libya has struggled with fragmentation and instability.
Syria’s conflict, meanwhile, has been shaped by multiple geopolitical factors. Internal unrest escalated into a prolonged war involving various international actors, leading to massive displacement and humanitarian crises.
In Afghanistan, the US intervention that began in 2001 lasted two decades. Despite significant expenditure, long-term stability remained elusive. The withdrawal in 2021 marked a turning point, leaving behind a fragile political and security situation.
Yemen represents an ongoing humanitarian crisis. While the US has not directly deployed large numbers of troops, it has supported allies involved in the conflict. The war has had devastating consequences for civilians, with widespread hunger and disease.
This raises the question: could Iran face a similar path? Years of sanctions have already strained its economy. Internal dissatisfaction, combined with external pressure, creates a complex and volatile situation.
A central argument presented here is that external powers may seek to exploit internal divisions to weaken state structures. However, Iran’s political system, regional influence, and internal dynamics differ significantly from those of Iraq, Libya, or Afghanistan.
Another critical concern is escalation. If instability intensifies, it could lead to broader regional conflict. Speculation about nuclear escalation adds another layer of risk, though such outcomes remain uncertain and highly consequential.
Ultimately, the future of Iran depends on multiple factors, including internal cohesion, regional geopolitics, and international diplomacy. Historical comparisons offer insights, but each case is shaped by unique circumstances.
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