By Santosh Kumar Dhakal, Major General (Retd.), Nepal Army
Unlike traditional wars confined to battlefields, contemporary conflicts exert systemic economic influence across continents. West Asia (the Middle East), Europe, and East Asia are linked by highly integrated supply chains. Energy, food, and industrial inputs traverse multiple nations, making modern warfare a war of economies as much as armies.
Clausewitz’s dictum, “War is a continuation of politics by other means,” must now be expanded: war increasingly continues through economics and logistics. Disruptions in energy, food, or fertilizer not only affect belligerent nations but ripple through dependent regions, creating secondary crises for states geographically distant from the conflict zone.
Historically, there are many precedents for wartime rationing and economic sustenance. In the Burma Campaign during World War II, Field Marshal William Slim introduced it in the most disciplined manner while recovering from his initial setbacks against the Japanese. To meet the severe setbacks caused by the Japanese offensive, which aimed to sever supply lines and leave Allied troops under severe strain, Slim’s foresight in implementing rationing helped maintain the tempo of the war. Slim introduced equal hardship, ensuring that headquarters officers adhered to the same rationing as soldiers. For the logistics wheel to move, air supply measures and decentralized depots were practiced to maintain operational flexibility despite the jungle terrain. This could not have been achieved without strict ration discipline, which ultimately prevented shortages and morale collapse.
A second example is Britain during the Battle of the Atlantic. This experience demonstrates economic rationing at the national scale. On the Atlantic front, German U-boats threatened maritime supply lines. Civilians were brought into the fold to support Britain’s war efforts. Strictly controlled weekly rations of meat, sugar, butter, and eggs were distributed to the population. Despite severe shortages, equitable rationing prevented societal collapse, illustrating how centralized economic management can sustain a nation in prolonged crisis.
Thirdly, the Siege of Stalingrad during the same war exemplifies civilian endurance under siege. Maintaining minimal allocations of rations, such as 125 grams of bread per day, through a centralized rationing system sustained the population for almost 900 days. Centralized planning, with constant communication with the public, mitigated panic and ensured compliance. In times of crisis, resource prioritization always saves critical human capital.
Analyzing the contemporary crisis in the West Asia and Europe—mainly the ongoing tensions in Iran and Israel, combined with the war between Russia and Ukraine—exposes vulnerabilities in the global energy and supply network. It has put energy corridors at risk. The major flashpoint is the Strait of Hormuz, which handles more than 20% of global oil exports, and its disruption is causing rising energy prices. Likewise, European dependence on Russian natural gas equally projects a volatile situation. The incurred costs and the declining support of insurance companies further aggravate the situation. Rerouted shipping and tanker risks further destabilize supply chains. Its effect on the food and agriculture sectors is alarming. Fertilizer production is energy-intensive; disruptions in the Gulf impact nitrogen and phosphate supply, which will have severe effects in East Asia, Africa, and West Asia, causing severe inflation as food prices rise globally and disproportionately affect import-dependent nations. Delays due to interruptions in many shipping lanes will directly impact the supply of electronics, pharmaceuticals, and industrial components. Traffic congestion due to rerouted vessels avoiding conflict zones will further complicate the delivery process. Likewise, the increasing cost of insurance premiums will need to be paid by consumers.
Global supply chain disruptions for an unforeseen period will certainly put landlocked nations in a vulnerable position. Dependence on a single or limited set of trade corridors, inability to directly access maritime transport, and limited capacity for storage and reserves highlight major vulnerabilities. Nepal, as a landlocked nation, certainly faces risks. Nearly all petroleum, medicine, and fertilizers transit through India, primarily via Kolkata Port. Domestic production capability of energy and grains may be critical to managing long-term crises. Nepal must prepare to manage short-term supply shocks that may arise within four to six weeks, affecting transportation, industry, and agriculture. However, diversification in food habits, coupled with rationing by exploiting its agricultural potential, may reduce pressure significantly in the food sector. Nepal must plan resource allocation wisely. It also needs transparent messaging to prevent panic and hoarding, in which local political bodies must be made accountable. Prioritization in essential sectors like hospitals and agriculture is key. The lesson is that prepared rationing and logistics management reduce vulnerability to external shocks, even without direct combat.
It is quintessential to anticipate the likely impacts. The crisis window may erupt for fuel after four weeks; for medicine after three months; for fertilizer, affecting the next agricultural season; and immediate hikes in food prices. Its impact can be felt in transport slowdowns and energy shortages, disrupted medical supply chains, reduced crop production, and inflation affecting low- and middle-income populations.
In the late 1980s, late His Majesty King Birendra envisioned fuel storage depots in Panchkhal and Nuwakot. The political transition after the 1990s disregarded this and chose a path of dependency, negating the basic principle of maintaining strategic reserves. Similarly, the Rastriya Mul Niti of 1983–84 set the agenda for an agricultural revolution. Had it been implemented then, dependency would have been reduced to certain levels by now. Maintaining three to six months of fuel, grains, fertilizer, and medicine is key. Bureaucratic red tape and political interference in harnessing hydropower-based electricity remain urgent challenges. Likewise, reliable and trustworthy diplomacy to maintain supply corridors with neighboring countries is important to diversify supply chains using multiple routes. Digital ration cards for equitable distribution and prioritization of essential services such as hospitals, agriculture, and critical transport are necessary. Nepal must enforce strong measures mobilizing local bodies to enhance domestic production of rice, maize, millet, etc. Investing in storage facilities and disaster-resilient crops is equally important. Furthermore, public communication is crucial to maintain transparency and accountability and to prepare the population for coping with crises if they occur. People must be notified in a timely manner about potential shortages and mechanisms for resource conservation. Last but not least, this prevents panic buying, hoarding, and misinformation. Nepal should draw necessary lessons from the principles of rationing to meet potential crises.
Historical lessons—from Slim in Burma, wartime Britain, and Leningrad—highlight that national endurance during war is determined by logistics, rationing, and governance, not only by combat strength. The current West Asia–Europe crisis threatens to disrupt energy, fertilizer, and food supply chains globally. Landlocked nations like Nepal face acute vulnerability due to geographic and infrastructural constraints. To safeguard national resilience, Nepal must: maintain strategic reserves of energy, food, and medicine; implement transparent public communication and rationing systems; diversify supply corridors and strengthen infrastructure; and increase domestic production and storage capacity. Failing to address these structural vulnerabilities could expose Nepal to economic and social crises in the future. Strategic foresight, drawing on historical war-economy lessons, offers a path to national resilience even in the face of global instability.
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