* Donald J. Trump: Finally Guilty!
Republican Presidential Candidate Now a Convicted Felon
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Trump’s Conviction Jolts America
The US criminal justice system finally caught up to the great manipulator and compulsive liar Donald J. Trump.
He has spent decades on the edge of legal trouble.
First, he was a New York city real estate tycoon whose company violated discrimination laws, failed to repay debts and flirted with bankruptcy.
Then, he was a president who impeded an investigation of his 2016 campaign, tried to overturn the result of his re-election defeat 2020 and refused to return classified documents he took from the White House.
Throughout, his central strategy was the same: delay — delay — delay!
Trump and his lawyers pushed off legal problems for as long as possible, with all means possible and hoped that a solution somehow presented itself. And it usually worked too.
This time around, it seemed to be on the verge of working again this year, with two federal trials and one state trial in the state of Georgia all unlikely to be completed before Election Day in November.
However, on Thursday May 30, a criminal jury judged Trump for the first time. The verdict was guilty, 34 times pronounced late in the afternoon in downtown Manhattan.
The prosecutors had argued that Trump had falsified business records to hide a sexual affair with pornographic actress Stormy Daniels from voters and thereby corrupt the 2016 presidential election.
After two days of deliberation, the 12 jurors agreed. Trump has become the first former president of the United States to be a convicted felon (New York Times: The Morning/David Leonhardt, May 31).
But the caveats are important.
Trump will appeal, and some legal experts think he has a case, given the novel combination of accusations that the prosecutors made.
It is unclear when, or even if, he will go to prison.
Most important, nobody knows whether it will help or hurt his presidential campaign.
On the most basic level, however, Trump experienced a personal defeat last week unlike any other.
NYT-writer Michael Gold, who has been covering Trump, said that as he left the courthouse – after making a combative statement but taking no questions – Trump “looked more somber than I have seen him at any point in the last several months.”
Maggie Haberman (also of the NYT), who has been covering Trump for years, notes that Trump and his aides, frequently respond to bad news with spin about what actually happened. “By following this playbook, Trump’s team can usually create enough confusion to leave people questioning outcomes,” Haberman wrote. “Not so with a jury verdict.”
Three Vital Questions
- Could Trump go to prison?
It is a distinct possibility, but it’s not clear that he will.
The judge, Juan Merchan, scheduled sentencing for July 11. Until then, Trump remains free.
Each of the 34 counts on which Trump was convicted carries a sentence of up to four years.
Most legal observers believe that a sentence of more than four years – in which Trump would serve consecutive terms, rather than concurrent terms – is unlikely.
Merchan could also decide to sentence Trump to probation and no prison time.
Before sentencing, Trump will sit with a psychologist or a social worker and have a chance to explain why he deserves a light punishment.
Even if Merchan sentences Trump to prison time, it may not begin immediately.
Merchan could instead allow Trump to remain free while courts heard his appeal.
The appeals could take months or years, well beyond Election Day, and could rise to the Supreme Court (NYT/Leonhardt).
- Can Trump still become president?
Yes. The Constitution does not bar him from holding office because of this felony.
He could run for president from prison.
If he was elected from prison, he could not pardon himself because the conviction is on state charges rather than federal charges.
But he could sue for his own release, arguing that his imprisonment prevented him from fulfilling his constitutional duties as president.
- How will Trump’s conviction affect the presidential election campaign?
Nobody can know because of the unusual situation: “Political prognostication after unprecedented news is a recipe for regret” (NYT).
The NYT’s Nate Cohn offers some analysis of this question which may be the most important, not only for America, but the world in general.
Cohn points out that Trump’s current polling lead relies on voters who have traditionally supported Democrats, including younger and non-white voters.
Some of them have previously told pollsters that a conviction would make them less comfortable with supporting Trump. Cohn also emphasizes that nobody yet knows what will happen.
If Trump actually goes to prison, the Secret Service agents who protect the former president will have to join him there!
How Trump responded
- The courtroom was silent as the jury foreman read the verdict, saying “guilty” 34 times, into a microphone. Trump shut his eyes and shook his head.
- After his conviction, Trump blamed the judge, the jury and a country “gone to hell”. [How dare they judge him – He, who is above the law and can do no wrong!]
“This was a rigged trial,” Trump said after leaving the courtroom. [It would have been fair, if he had gone scot free].
“The real verdict is going to be Nov.5 by the people,” he added. [But the election will be ‘free and fair’, only if he and the Republican Party win].
- Trump’s Republican allies blasted the verdict.
House speaker Mike Johnson called it “a purely political exercise, not a legal one.”
But Republicans who oppose Trump were more supportive of the verdict. Former Gov. Larry Hogan, running for the Senate in Maryland, asked Americans to respect the verdict. The Reaction of the Biden campaign
- President Biden’s campaign responded by asking for donations on social media:
“There’s only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box.”
- The verdict gave Biden’s campaign a new way to frame the race – as a choice between someone who is a felon and someone who is not.
A Conviction Heard Around the World
Every major TV network cut in to cover what the CNN’s Jake Tapper called “an unbelievable moment in American history.”
- “The greatest good to come out of this sordid case is the proof that the rule of law binds everyone even former presidents, The New York Time’s editorial board wrote.
- “If Donald Trump ends up in a jail cell this year, it will be thanks in part to the remarkable testimony of a porn star whom he’s been doing everything in his power to shame, silence, and discredit for eight years,” Laura Bassett wrote in The Cut.
A wary world awaits fallout
The conviction has also demonstrated that whathappens in the United States is also of consequence for the rest of the world.
Foreign observers are already aware that Trump is extremely volatile. They are now wondering whether he would stay within the guardrails of normal politics if he won again in November (NYT/Hannah Beech, June 1-2).
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, the director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok says Asia-Pacific nations face even more uncertainty. Trump could shake up the regional security balance, threaten a trade war with China, pledge to impose tariffs on a wide range of goods and generally act in a very stormy and belligerent way.
The convictions by a Manhattan jury come as the question of American engagement has become central in several global crises.
In Ukraine, the war effort against Russia had been stymied after Republicans in Congress delayed American military aid – under the influence of Trump.
In Europe, leaders of countries reliant on the United States for their defence – this means all 30 members of NATO [together with the US and Canada 32-member strong] – are worried about a more acrimonious relationship with Washington and a withdrawal of American support for hardening defences against Russia.
In Asia, where the Biden administration perceives a growing Chinese threat [above all the East China Sea, the South China Sea and Taiwan] and worries about a possible invasion or blockade of Taiwan, American allies like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, are concerned about the sanctity of defence treaties that have long girded the regional security order.
And around the world, human rights activists fear that Trump’s diatribes against democracy, such as his baseless contention that his 2020 election loss was rigged, are emboldening autocrats and legitimizing repression.
Foreign pundits worry that Trump’s favoured mode of operation, unpredictability, could shake up the global order.
Still, the fundamental tension in Indo-Pacific regional geopolitics – the contest, or rather the competition & collaboration between the United States and China – will continue no matter who wins the American presidential election [Only under Biden it will not be haphazard, unpredictable and according to the wild whims of a megalomaniac].
“Beijing has no illusion about Trump or Biden, given their anti-China solid stance,” said Lau Siu-kai, an adviser to the Chinese government on Hong Kong policy.
“Beijing is all set for a more intense confrontation with the U.S. over technology, trade and Taiwan.”
According to the NYT, there is a sense in Asia that it is perennially overlooked and under-appreciated by U.S. presidents.
That sentiment was also felt acutely during Trump’s presidency.
And for America’s partners and allies in Asia it was made worse by his affinity – even admiration — for regional strongmen like Russian President Vladimir V. Putin, Kim Jong-un of North Korea and Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines.
“ Given how the Trump administration failed to pay enough attention to building partnerships with like-minded states in Asia,” said Aries A. Arugay, the chair of the political science department at the University of the Philippines, “a second Trump presidency will endanger the momentum achieved by the revitalized United-States-Philippine relations.”
However, Bilahari Kausikan, a former foreign minister of Singapore, cautioned against equating American values with Asian ones.
“We structure our relationship with the U.S. more on the basis of common interests rather than common values,” he said.
Kausikan implies that it is no use getting upset over the prospect of Trump or that there are little shared values.
Regarding the prosecution of former leaders, the rest of the world is far ahead of the United States.
In South Korea, as much as four ex-presidents have been convicted of corruption and abuse of power.
Former French presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac were convicted of corruption.
Jacob Zuma, the former president of South Africa, has been charged with money laundering, among other crimes. He has now founded a new party and is trying to make a come-back.
And in Brazil, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was sentenced to years in prison for corruption. His convictions were eventually annulled and he is again president of the country and a leading light of the Global South.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
Login to add a comment