By Pushpa Raj Pradhan:
Not an odd, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling party BJP want to escalate tension in relations with Pakistan to hold on power for the next tenure. The Pulwama terrorist attack killing 42 Indian security force is taken as an opportunity for Modi and BJP to bag sympathy votes on the eve of the general elections. Since the terrorist attack on 14 February, political observers were predicting that India was going to initiate military action against Pakistan focusing on the upcoming general elections in India.
Modi has not been able to retain his populist image as like in the last general elections. Even the BJP supporters predict that Modi or BJP will not sweep the general elections this time, however, Modi will form the government with a thin majority. And thus, Modi and his party BJP is seeking every option attracting the public sympathy. Therefore, war with Pakistan is inevitable for the Modi ruled India.
As assumed, the Indian Air Force on Tuesday launched airstrikes inside Pakistan targeting a Jaish-e-Mohammed training camp inside Pakistani territory. Jaish-e-Mohammed claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing attack in Pulwama, India-controlled Kashmir on 14 February. Experts say the move was designed in part to shore up political support just ahead of general elections in April.
Costly election strategy:
To quote the foreignpolicy.com, Milan Vaishnav, director, South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the crisis offers Modi an opportunity to show strength on the world stage.
“With general elections just weeks away, the conflict gives Modi and the [Bharatiya Janata Party] a clear advantage,” said Vaishnav. “Modi’s calling card is projecting strength, decisive leadership, and nationalism. This crisis allows him to tap into all three.”
Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington, Asad Majeed Khan, meanwhile, told a group of reporters on 27 February in Washington that Modi’s government is “using this incident to draw political mileage at home.”
“It’s a very serious situation, and any further escalation can be dangerous,” he added.
Khan urged the United States to play a greater role in de-escalating the crisis.
“We would certainly like to have more, and would certainly like to see more active involvement of the United States,” he told reporters. “There is perhaps no other country better placed than the United States to be able to play some role,” he added, and also called on the international community to help address the tensions.
The strike highlights a drastic shift in New Delhi’s stance toward Islamabad’s continued harboring of terrorist groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammed, said Ashley Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“India has been a perpetual prisoner of its own self-restraint, so the fact that is has now changed the playbook is the story,” Tellis said. “I think Indians are now simply tired of being the punching bag for Pakistani terrorism.”
New Delhi has been dealing with Pakistan-based terrorist groups attacking targets both in India-held Kashmir or India itself since at least the 1990s. Modi’s government came into power in 2014 promising “a much more muscular response,” Tellis said.
Pakistan retaliates:
Against the Indian claim of having targeted a large terrorist camp and resultant causalities, Pakistan has claimed that it was completely absurd and was based on a farce narrative designed to placate domestic audience.
Furthermore, on 27 February, when the Indian aircrafts were detected by Pakistani Air Defence surveillance system, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has claimed that it shot-downed two aircrafts arresting one Indian pilot.
Possible escalation of tension:
Defence experts speculate that India may launch surgical strike against Pakistan. Pakistan seems prepared for any possible opening of war by India.
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has appealed for talks, making reference to both countries’ nuclear arsenals.
Khan said in a televised address after the airstrikes that the time had come for a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
“With the weapons you have and the weapons we have, can we afford miscalculation? Shouldn’t we think that if this escalates, what will it lead to?”
The war between Pakistan and India may not be under control of anybody else, Khan has warned.
Possibility of nuclear war cannot be denied in between the two nuclear power countries and Pakistan may use the nuclear weapon to safeguard her sovereignty and independence.
Effect on Nepal:
Pakistan has closed its airspace, forcing all international flights approaching via the Indian sky to be rerouted. All international flights operating from and to Nepal and the Gulf countries and also the European countries have been rerouted.
If India will be engaged in war with Pakistan, Nepal may face shortage of daily consumable goods including perto-products, food stuffs, even vegetables as she is totally dependent on India on import of such products.
Moreover, in case of use of nuclear weapons by any of the countries, Nepal will be the first victim of war as Kashmir, the disputed zone, is very close from Nepal.
Therefore, Nepal’s role should be for deescalating tension between India and Pakistan. Recent statement issued by the Nepal government urging both the countries for resolving disputes through dialogue is highly appreciated by the intellectual community at home. As the chair of SAARC, the Nepal government should urge the international community for deescalating the existing tension between India and Pakistan before it will be too late.
Indian PM Modi should not drag South Asia into violence just for his political gains.
Khan performs statesmanship:
In latest development, on Thursday, Pakistani Prime Minister Khan announced that his government would be releasing the captured pilot from India after days of military conflict, offering a way out of the crisis and seeking to position Pakistan as the cooler head in a confrontation that has put the world on edge.
“In our desire of peace, I announce that tomorrow, and as a first step to open negotiations, Pakistan will be releasing the Indian Air Force officer in our custody,” Khan said.
However, Khan informed that the decision should not be taken as weakness of Pakistan.
Indian officials, on the other hand, are saying that the pilot’s release would not necessarily end the crisis, which they said was rooted in Pakistan’s support of terrorist groups that strike at India.
Such a decision by Khan has boosted his image as a visionary leader, in the meantime, the Pakistani announcement has created impasse on the Modi government’s election strategy.
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