By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel
Balendra Shah, popularly known as Balen, rose to prominence, surprising everyone, including our immediate southern neighbor. Balen’s elevation to the position of Prime Minister has come at a time when India–Nepal relations have reached their lowest ebb. Following the change in political leadership, New Delhi, which has remained an all-weather friend of Kathmandu, has been closely observing the unfolding political developments in the country. Among other objectives, its priority is to reshape its friendly relations with Kathmandu in the changed political context.
Nepal and India have shared a unique relationship since time immemorial. This relationship has been shaped by open borders, deep cultural ties and overlap, economic interdependence, and a shared civilizational space. Both have helped each other in the process of nation-building—socially, economically, and politically. Logically speaking, no other two nations on the planet share such a unique relationship. Yet, it has been marked by phases of temporary mistrust, souring ties between them. However, with the emergence of Balen, New Delhi views this as an opportunity to reshape the relationship, engaging in mutual benefit and development.
What makes Balen different from his predecessors is his source of political power. Unlike many leaders in the past, Balen represents youth—a driving force for substantial change in the country. The former mayor of Kathmandu does not come from long-standing party structures. He rose to prominence as an independent candidate, challenging the status quo. His popularity has been built on governance, efficiency, and a commitment to ending corruption and cleaning up public institutions. This is evident in the fact that, as mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, he transformed what was once a littered and polluted city.
It is needless to mention that many Nepalese harbor anti-India sentiments, whether by default or by design. They believe that India intends to dictate Nepal’s political leadership. Furthermore, they hold the view that their leaders dance to the tune of external forces, mainly New Delhi, thereby surrendering national integrity and sovereignty. However, many political experts argue that anti-India sentiment is a narrative created by political parties, particularly communists, for their own advantage.
India is an emerging powerhouse in the region. It has surprised the West with its rapid economic growth, especially under the leadership of Narendra Modi. It is also mindful of the fact that India needs Nepal, particularly in the area of hydropower, to meet its evolving energy demands. However, political instability, frequent changes in leadership, and anti-India sentiment have remained bottlenecks for New Delhi in collaborating with Kathmandu on hydropower projects that would benefit both nations.
The Arun III hydropower project is a case in point. The project envisions exporting surplus electricity to India via a 400 kV cross-border transmission line, which is currently under construction. However, the project has witnessed several ups and downs as a result of political instability and internal disagreements. It has been delayed due to approval issues, renegotiations, and political uncertainty. This is where New Delhi expects the government of Nepal under Balen to deliver and help meet its evolving needs in clean energy.
Beyond hydropower, New Delhi also intends to reshape the bilateral relationship between the two nations. Over the years, Nepal-India relations have deteriorated. While Nepal was struggling to recover from the post-earthquake catastrophe, India imposed what it described as an unofficial economic embargo. The New Delhi administration imposed economic restrictions, citing dissatisfaction with Nepal’s constitution promulgation. India’s move angered many Nepalese, resulting in strained relations that persist to this day. With the change in political leadership in Kathmandu, New Delhi is now eyeing a renewal of bilateral ties.
New Delhi perceived Nepal under former Prime Minister Oli as pro-China and as promoting policies that served Beijing’s interests. It even accused Nepal of raising the issue of Lipulekh at the behest of its northern neighbor after India constructed an 80 km road in the disputed territory in May 2020. This perception was reflected in Indian media coverage portraying Oli as a close ally of Beijing. Despite Nepal’s calls for dialogue to resolve the issue once and for all, New Delhi has been reluctant to come to the negotiating table.
Following India’s move to construct a road in disputed territory, bilateral relations between India and Nepal reached a low point. In the current context, many political experts in India believe that New Delhi is now more likely to engage in dialogue with Kathmandu to resolve the issue definitively.
Nepal’s geostrategic location has always been a concern for New Delhi from a security standpoint. Nepal shares an open and porous border with India stretching from east to west. According to the New Delhi administration, this has provided opportunities for terrorists to infiltrate India, posing a serious threat to social peace and harmony. Given the extent of cross-border movement, it is likely that New Delhi will propose measures to better regulate this flow.
India views Balen as a strategic politician with vision and a people-centric agenda. This perception is reflected in major Indian news outlets, which have praised him, suggesting that Nepal has finally found a leader capable of driving the nation toward prosperity while maintaining a balance between its immediate neighbors—India and China.
For India, this kind of leadership is easier to engage with. It reduces uncertainty and fosters cooperation for mutual benefit. As Nepal stands at the dawn of a new beginning following the change in political leadership, it needs India’s support in areas such as infrastructure and regional connectivity. On the other hand, Nepal’s immense hydropower potential can help meet India’s growing demand for clean energy. If handled carefully, Balen’s leadership could usher Nepal-India relations into a more productive phase—one that sustains strong bilateral ties.
Login to add a comment