By Shanker Man Singh
According to a recent announcement by the National Statistics Office (NSO), the national average life expectancy of Nepal has reached 71.3 years, male life expectancy is 68.2 years and female life expectancy is 73.8 years.
In the past decade, the population has been ageing by 0.92 percent annually. It is the lowest in 80 years. The National Statistics Office (NSO) has recently published a demographic indicator report and has shown that the annual population growth rate was less than one percent during the review period.
At a glance, compared to the statistics of the last eight decades, the population growth is low. According to NSO, the current population of the country is around 29.2 million.
During 2068 and 2078, there was an increase of about 2.7 million. The highest population growth was in the Lumbini region at 13.8 percent. The tendency to live in a single-family has increased in the world. In Nepal, it is called a single family consisting of only two generations (parents and children). Other than that, the family is a joint family. The structure of the family also has a positive or negative effect on economic and social structures. Currently, 60 percent of Nepal is a single family. 40 percent live in joint families.
In one year, the birth rate of infants in Nepal is 14.2 percent. Looking at the crude birth rate of infants in one year, it appears that 14.2 percent (14 per thousand) were born in Nepal.
From a regional point of view, 7,359 people have migrated to Far West. Gandaki province is in second place. Lumbini and Karnali are ranked third and fourth respectively. Madhes province has the least number of international migrants.
Nepal is currently in the process of population growth, especially the aging population. A growing population poses many challenges to social, economic and healthcare systems. To address these problems and address their needs, the Government of Nepal has formulated a separate policy and safety program for senior citizens and is also committed to various regional and international conventions to promote the welfare of senior citizens in the country.
The retirement age in government agencies of Nepal is 58 years. That is, old age in government service starts from 58 years. But the retirement age in education service is 63 and in legal service, this age is 75 years.
Senior citizens should transfer their acquired experience, knowledge and skills to the next generation. If a person remains active even at the age of 80, then it is considered to have the characteristics of youth. Adulthood can be considered a mixture of age, experience, responsibility, physical and mental activity, social and psychological influence etc. That’s why some people age fast and some people age slowly.
The life expectancy of Nepalis is increasing in every census. Longevity is considered to be the first happiness among the four states of happiness of healthy body, wealth, a chaste wife and obedient children. Compared to the number of children, if there is a long-term increase in the number of older generations, it is called population ageing.
In other words, if there is a long-term increase in the number of generations compared to the lower part of the population pyramid of a country, it is called population ageing. In this context, the government should make a regular budget for old age allowance, pension and other security and facilities needed by the elderly.
When the government increases spending on social services, it may have to cut down on economic development spending. There is a saying – ‘Don’t regret being old, it’s an opportunity not many get.’ They complain that the number of people getting such an opportunity in the country is increasing day by day, but due to the government’s lack of attention to proper management, there has been a situation of ‘regret’ for being elderly here.
It is their pain that senior citizens, who should be able to live their old age happily, healthily and with dignity, have had to sit on dharna for years to fulfill their demands. Statistics show that the number of senior citizens has increased five times in the last 5 decades. In the 2018 census, the number of people over 60 years old was 489,000, but in the last census 2078, the number of senior citizens has increased significantly. Currently, this number has reached around 2.5 million according to government data. The number of senior citizens, which was 5.2 percent in 2018, has increased by almost 3 percent to over 8.1 percent of the total population.
Demographers say that the number of senior citizens in the country will increase even more in the future. As projected by the Central Statistics Office, the number of senior citizens in 2031 will be 11 percent of the total population. But this percentage is expected to increase further.
The fertility rate is increasing due to the migration of millions of young people. This shows that the number of senior citizens will increase even more in the future. The current situation would be defined as the best opportunity if the trend of young people going abroad stopped.
It cannot be denied that if the young generation joins in the development of the country under the guidance of senior citizens who are enriched with skills and knowledge, the possibility of Nepal become better soon. The growth rate of senior citizens is higher in the hills than in the cities.
Experts say that this is due to internal displacement, migration, social conflict and modernization. The government has enacted the Senior Citizen Act 2063, the National Senior Citizen Policy and Strategy 2058 and the Senior Citizen National Action Plan 2062. In this, there is the provision of free health treatment, the construction of ashrams at the regional and central levels and many other facilities. But senior citizens complain that its implementation is not good. Their complaint is that old age homes are dilapidated and expensive.
The government side says that they are sensitive to senior citizens. The Ministry of Women, Children and Social Welfare is active in providing entertainment and skills for senior citizens along with the provision of allowances.
Demographers say that social security allowances alone do not protect senior citizens. In terms of the age group (15-59 years) related to the active labor force in Nepal, it has reached the most convenient situation. According to the national report of Census 2078, 61.96 percent of the total population currently belongs to this age group.
This number is 1 crore 80 lakh 71 thousand 685. Compared to the previous census 2068, this is more than 5 percentage points. According to the data, the number of people under 5 years of age decreased by 1.33 percentage points, while the number of people over 60 years of age increased by 2.08 percentage points. This shows that the proportion of old age is increasing compared to new births.
According to the data of the 2078 census, it is the analysis of the stakeholders that Nepal can continue to take such a facility of the active labor force that can be benefited for another two decades.
However, looking at the slow pace of the country’s development and political instability, there is a risk that Nepal may miss out on the opportunity to make the country prosperous by using this opportunity. In this context, Nepal can still benefit from demographics for 30 to 40 years.
It seems that this is the most comfortable decade. This is the biggest opportunity, if we don’t use it, it will be wasted. A large part of the economically active labor force is currently employed abroad. Nepal is receiving remittances from them.
However, a large amount received from remittances is being used for consumption and imports of goods. It is also clear that this does not give a happy message to the future of Nepal with increasing migration, changing fertility rates, mortality rates and life expectancy, our country’s youthfulness does not seem to last much longer.
Almost seven years from now (in 2028) we are becoming an ‘aging’ society. Then 7 percent of the total population will be over 65 years of age. At first glance, this appears to be little. Jabo 7 percent old age can be thought of as old age! But if it is to be classified, those below 18 years of age do not work.
This means that only the population between the ages of 18 and 65 will be active in the economy, which will continue to decline. After 2050 we will transform into an ‘old’ society.
Thoughtful preparation combining behavioral change, investment in human capital and infrastructure, policy and institutional reforms, and technological innovation can enable countries to meet the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities presented by demographic change.
The urban population has increased by almost five percent in the last decade. The report on the degree of urbanization of Nepal released by the National Statistics Office recently on the occasion of Statistics Day showed that the urban population increased from 22.31 percent to 27.07 percent from 2011 to 2021.
Similarly, the urban population has increased from 39.19 percent to 39.75 percent. In the report, it is mentioned that the rural population has decreased from 38.5 percent to 33.19 percent in the last 10 years.“The majority of the population still lives in peri-urban areas considered ‘urban’, while urbanization is occurring in character.
However, the rural population is still one-third, while trends, such as migration from rural to peri-urban areas, provide insight into the pressure on urban areas to accommodate and rural areas to maintain population.
According to the 2021 census, the population of the urban municipality is 66.17 percent and that of the rural municipality is 33.83 percent. This indicates that 66.17 percent of the urban area in Nepal is not further classified into urbanization or peri-urban municipalities.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
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