By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel
Henry John Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston, who served as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom during the 19th century and was known for his pragmatic approach to foreign policy, once said that there are no permanent enemies, no permanent friends, but only permanent interests in the context of international relations and diplomacy. Though Henry John Temple is not anymore in this world, his saying is still relevant in today’s politics and diplomacy. This saying can be best illustrated by the growing hostile relations between India and the island nation of the Maldives.
Far from the headline-grabbing wars in Russia- Ukraine and Israel-Palestine, a bizarre diplomatic conflict between India and the Maldives has been taking place in the Arabian Ocean for quite a long. This diplomatic conflict does not bode well for India which is eyeing to become a superpower in South Asia.
India and the Maldives, irrespective of their economic and military strength, were very good friends until recent times. The island nation Maldives has remained a good ally of India on several occasions. Moreover, Maldives has depended on India for support through all manner of crises. When Sri Lankan mercenaries attempted a coup in the Maldives, the Indian military stood by its side to foil their efforts. Likewise, during the 2004 Tsunami, India helped the Maldives to rescue its citizens and provided aid support as well. India was the first country to recognize its sovereignty after it gained independence from British rule in 1965. Not only this, India deployed 89 military personnel in Maldives saying they will provide humanitarian support and medical evacuation for the residents of the remote islands of the country. But now this long-standing friendly relationship between the two countries has come under threat in the recent past.
Maldives has distanced itself from India especially after the election of Mohamed Muizzu as its President last year. During the election campaign, his major agenda was to assure people that he would remove the Indian military from Maldives after he became the President. This was enough to convince the people who gave him the mandate to become the seventh President of the country.
Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu rode to victory in last September’s election on blistering anti-India rhetoric. After taking office, he has made amply clear that “India Out” was more than just a campaign slogan. He is the first Maldivian president who did not go to India on his first official foreign trip. Instead, he visited Turkey, which has become progressively more Islamist and less friendly toward India under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leadership
President Mizzui, soon after assuming the office, told New Delhi to pull out its deployed military before 10 March 2024. This was a bold decision as India was not expecting it anytime soon. But despite New Delhi’s best attempt to convince the President to re-think his decision, he gave New Delhi a deadline to withdraw its deployed 89 military from the Maldives. But why the island nation which was a very close ally of India suddenly severed its ties and friendship? I will provide a very close to perfect-answer.
India-Maldives relations were strained between 2013-2018 by President Abdulla Yameen’s ‘India Out’ campaign. This India’s out movement reached a helm when the present President, during the election campaign, committed to removing the Indian military after assuming office.
Many highly placed reports say that Mizzui was not happy with the deployed Indian military in the Maldives. He viewed them as a threat to the country’s sovereignty though India had been saying that the military was stationed for humanitarian support and aid and not for another purpose. But this explanation did not convince the President.
Furthermore, it is also reported that India has had considerable influence in the Maldives, an archipelago which sits near the world’s busiest shipping lane in the Indian Ocean. New Delhi has long regarded the South Asian island nation as its backyard and sphere of influence, with a strong desire to tighten its grip on the capital city of Male and exclude other countries’ influence. But when it comes to geopolitics, gratitude is less potent than resentment. The Maldives, it seems, suffers from the classic smaller-neighbour problem so marvellously expressed by the nineteenth-century Mexican leader Porfirio Díaz: “Poor Mexico—so far from God, so close to the United States!”
As a symbol of resentment, the Maldives has now discontinued joint hydrographic surveys and boycotted the Colombo Security Conclave, which was meant to bring together India, the Maldives, and two other Indian Ocean countries, Mauritius and Sri Lanka.
While New Delhi is making final arrangements for the general election scheduled to be held in April 2024, the recent diplomatic conflict between India and the Maldives could be misinterpreted by the political opponents of the ruling government led by Narendra Modi. In plain words, they will try to cash in on New Delhi’s inability to negotiate with Males on issues related to deployed Indian military personnel.
There is an apprehension that the political opponents in the upcoming general election could campaign saying that Modi has been a failure when it comes to a diplomatic relationship with its immediate neighbors. Amidst this paradoxical stage, the incumbent government will surely have a difficult time explaining to the Indian voters why Indian military personnel had to be withdrawn.
Though diplomatic conflict is nothing new in geopolitics, many fear that it could destabilize the peace and harmony in the region. We hope that the recent diplomatic conflict between India and the Maldives will not adversely affect their long-standing friendship. In fact, it will be further bolstered in the days ahead.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
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