By P Kharel
Nepal’s foreign policy has gone down rock bottom, unable to utter any official reaction on the latest war triggered by the United States and Israel combine against Iran. It might be aping India. Gone are days when Nepal protested against Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia in 1968 and another Soviet military move in Afghanistan in 1979. On both occasions, India did not come out against Moscow’s action. In 1979, it sent its Foreign Minister IK Gujaral to Kabul in recognition of the Soviet-propped up government.
Going by the daily events and comments emanating from Washington and Tehran, the on-going war is far from over. Iran lays down three preconditions to end war not on American President Donald Trump’s claim but on its own terms: recognition of Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of reparations and international guarantees against future aggression. It all shows that Tehran is far from done, and the fighting goes on escalated.
Iranian leaders talk of “a tooth for a tooth” and “an eye for an eye” whereas US establishment figures warn of “unimaginable” consequences for the Tehran rulers. Trump has been claiming victory since a fortnight while Iranian Prime Minister Masoud Pezeshkian and the newly chosen Supreme Leader Mojtaba Ayatollah, the late Ayatollah’s Ali Khamenei’s son, echo firmly defiant statements. Which means aggravation. Tehran cannot win the war but can drag the superpower into a protracted conflict that will wear down American public patience and the tolerance power of American allies in especially Europe, Australia and next-door Canada.
Apparently, the purpose is to wear down each other in the two belligerents. The Trump team and security bosses had anticipated the Iranian regime to collapse as soon as its 87-year-old supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei and two scores of top-notch army personnel and other close aides were killed. Above all, 167 elementary school kids were struck with precision targeting missiles.
SHALLOW CLAIM: The predicted disarray and regime change did not happen; nor did the war stop as quickly as it started. Now into the fourth week, the US-Israel war against Iran continues, even as each deadly hour fuelled the worries of the rest of the international community—some with stony silence, a few in murmurs and a handful in open comments.
Operation Epic Fury proves to be an epic folly when engaging with a “pariah” state that has defied Washington for 45 years. Iran ignores the unannounced but reluctant American white flag for a truce amidst Tehran’s Operation True Promise of steely determination to avenge what the assassination of its supreme leader amidst comments from both the capitals that a breakthrough was very close.
Hezbollah, operating from Lebanon, strikes and so does Iran. Three Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv and Haifa have been hit hard. Pro-Iran Iraqi militant groups, including Shia militants, have attacked American military bases and assets in Iraq and Kuwait.
The lesson of wars is that it might be relatively easy to trigger a war but ending it often gets complicated and its consequences far-reaching in both time and impact. A precedent has been set that war breaks out even when the impression given is that talks are positively progressing for dispute resolution.
Another disconcerting sign is the meek silence of America’s European allies and the Five Eyes club of English-speaking, Anglo-Saxon majority countries. The five—Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, Canada and the US—are built on the ashes of indigenous populations that massively got wiped out. That background and the US-Israel strike on February 28 even as peace talks were progressing have led Tehran to dub American talks as a Dialogue of Death.
MONOPOLY ENDING: Monopoly of regime changes will break for good or even worse. For good, if better sense prevails as a new international order or, for worse, if other superpowers and middle powers plus stronger neighbors pick a leaf from the US in attending to their “national interests” and interpretation of various humanitarian considerations.
BRICS will gather yet more steam as distrust against the US grows. Millions of Americans might be literally counting the number of days the Trump administration gets to end. The rest of the world has a different perception. The British magazine, The Economist, months ago carried a cover story counting the number of days for Trump’s tenure to end.
Even if the next administration in the US turns out to be much different, the manner in which Trump was allowed to so brashly, openly and frequently jibe and hurl abuses at other world leaders together with aggressive overtones and unjustified claims and actions alert other nations to prepare for the worst. They cannot keep praying that things won’t repeat or not frequently without being labelled delusional and stupid.
If the on-going conflict were to prolong, all hell might break loose against the US from its traditional allies that have so far not dared to open up due to decades of accepting and toeing American agenda without much debate or defiance. Public mood, too, is raging against America’s habitual and unprovoked aggression against other countries.
If the war ends in a deadlock, the US in coordination with its European allies will try stirring ethnic conflicts in a country where ethnic communities account for 40 per cent of the 90 million population. The West weaponises hunger, shortages and ethnicity, which create hardships for the local populations but often without lasting relief.
Where does Nepal’s position stand? No one seems to care.
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