By Rabi Raj Thapa
So far, 2024–25 have been years of bloody political violence and upheaval in Nepal. It started with the mistaken notion that the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist)–Nepali Congress-led government had succeeded in quelling and suppressing the Tinkune pro-monarchist and Hindu Sanatani rally of March 28, 2025. However, the same policy and strategy used against the Gen-Z youth movement of September 8 and 9, 2026 viciously boomeranged, uprooting and toppling the government to its core. In a way, the movement swept away the pride and power of the pioneer federalists who had, in the eyes of their critics, immorally and inappropriately repudiated Nepal’s age-old monarchical and Hindu Sanatani political system.
Since the formation of the new caretaker government, the political environment has become very complex, uncertain, and volatile. However, the relatively uneventful, smooth, and successful election has raised hope for a peaceful transition in Nepali politics in the future.
Each successive political event since the 1980 Nepalese referendum has gradually accelerated the use of violent force from the government as well as resistance from the people. For example, there were no fatalities during any voting prior to the political referendum of May 2, 1980. Around 50 fatalities occurred during the 45 days of political protests in 1990, including deaths from police firing and accidents. Ten years later, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) launched an armed insurgency that caused about 17,000 deaths, with many disappearances. This conflict also led to foreign mediation, interference, and supervision by external mechanisms such as the twelve-point agreement and the United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN), which monitored the government, the Nepal Army, and Maoist combatants.
However, the peaceful election that followed the extremely violent and anarchic nature of the Gen-Z movement — which saw lynching, arson, vandalism, destruction of judicial, legislative, and executive centers, jail breaks, and the looting of weapons from the police — represented the height of lawlessness and anarchy. This was the first instance of near-statelessness in the history of Nepal.
At present, three distinct internal forces are in action. First is the historical and traditional monarchical camp and the Sanatan Omkar Parivar. Second are the vengeful, defeated, and humiliated federal political stalwarts who may use all their power to uproot and undermine the new government by any means. They may have lost power in the legislature and the executive, but they still have strong roots and influence within the government bureaucracy and the socio-economic structure.
They may also retain latent links and the capacity to obstruct the government through trade unions, student unions, and power brokers of their making. Besides, they may still use their old connections with silent partners in national and international power centers, and even with semi-legal or organized crime groups.
Geopolitically, Nepal has now become globally pivotal in an unprecedented manner. Starting with a congratulatory message from Tenzin Gyatso to the new Nepali prime minister — reportedly the first such instance in Nepali history — and considering the presence of Tibetan Original Blood (TOB), strong protests from pro-China “Dragon Media,” and condemnation of the Nepal government’s security forces, the dimensions of future challenges in Nepal’s international relations have become increasingly evident.
All these indications demonstrate many uncertainties about the future success of the post–Gen-Z elected government. If the government fails to fulfill its promises and meet the aspirations of the Nepali people, if it fails to control corruption and provide good governance, Nepal may face a much more violent, radical, and anarchic revolution.
Since the election results have already been announced, there should be no delay in government formation. The sooner the new government publishes its roadmap, the greater the trust and credibility it will gain.
Now, the Sword of Damocles is about to hang over the new prime minister and the council of ministers. They must remain aware that a two-thirds majority in parliament can be either a boon or a disaster, potentially causing irreparable damage to the national interest, national security, and sovereignty.
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