By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel
The year 2024 has been dubbed the global year of elections. More than 50 countries will exercise their democratic franchise, with elections in some countries being held. Over three billion people, or more than 40 percent global population, are taking part in elections to elect their representatives and leaders to govern. These elections will be closely observed by the international communities as they will have a long-term impact on the global order.
Modern democracies are in crisis not because they are devoid of constitutional and institutional framework. But because of the men manning the affairs mainly the political parties and leaders. They sabotage the democratic norms, values and ethos for their personal benefit. Their only intention is to remain in power no matter how it comes.
It is a fact that democracy begins with the ballot box. Periodic election gives fresh oxygen to democracy. Through the election, the citizens can retain the representatives they like and unseat the ones they dislike. This is the beauty of democracy. To the utter dismay, this best of government has come under threat in the recent past decades.
Irrespective of economic and military strength, the elections which are cardinal to functioning democracy, have become an extravagant affair in the past few years. The party ticket is given to those who can blow the money in the run-up to the election. Even worse, the votes are bought and sold right in front of the polling booths. A 2017 study conducted by the Election Observation Committee Nepal, a poll monitoring body, in 2017 had revealed that each candidate winning the federal parliament elections under the first-past-the-post system spent an average of Rs21.3 million. The runners-up spent an average of Rs14.9 million and the remaining candidates spent Rs8.5 million. Likewise, a winning candidate for provincial elections under the first-past-the-post system was found to have spent Rs12.5 million, while runners-up spent Rs11.7 million and others spent Rs7.1 million, according to the study. The election body had set a cap of Rs1.5 million. Overall, candidates from local, provincial and federal candidates spent Rs96.91 billion, according to the report. With such elections, the survival of democracy is a far-fetched dream.
Even in the established democracy, the influence of money cannot be ruled altogether. During 2020 US Presidential election, there were allegations that there were outsiders’ financial support in Donald Trump’s favor. Similarly, in developing countries like India, money, muscles and media play an important role in shaping the perception and action of the people. Of course, the institutions are established to ensure the functioning of democracy and its sanctity. But even such institutions fall prey to the evil eyes of the rulers. As a result, people harbor ill intentions about politics. If people are fed up with such politics and refrain from taking part in political processes, how can the roots of democracy run deep in the culture?
At present, democracy across the globe is not facing threats from monarchs. It is democratically elected leaders backed by a two-thirds majority who are posing grave threats to democracy. The scenario as said by two great political scientists–Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt–in their book “How democracies die” is turning into reality. With a two-thirds majority, the leaders pass the legislation and remain in power by decree.
The Democracy Index report 2023 says that year 2023 was an inauspicious year for democracy with the average global score falling to its lowest level since the index began in 2006. Less than 8% of the world’s population live in a full democracy, while almost 40% live under authoritarian rule—a share that has been creeping up in recent years.
Amidst this dismal scenario, elections are held in more than 50 countries in the world in 2024. These elections are very crucial as some elections very likely to shape the global. The presidential election in the US in November has been viewed with great enthusiasm. Many political observers say that the election in the US is considered a global election because the US presidential election is expected to shape the global political order to a large extent. Likewise, the election in India scheduled for March-April has been observed with high interest by political pundits across South Asia.
In South Asia, the elections were just concluded in Pakistan which has surprised everyone. The independent candidates outshine the mainstream political parties. Bangladesh, Bhutan and Maldives also held their elections. But people are not excited as they are very mindful of the fact that elected leaders will not embrace any concerted efforts to strengthen democracy. This clearly illustrates that people have been losing faith in political parties and leaders which does not bode well for democracy across the globe.
The people across the globe are already talking about the US election. The hold the view that the republican Donald Trump is very likely to make a comeback in the United States. According to them, it will send jitters to Europe and other parts of the world. In an interview with French public broadcaster France 2, Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, described the possible election of Donald Trump as a “clear threat” to Europe.
Not far away, the election in India will also play a key role in regional politics. The experts say that Modi’s victory for the third time in India is likely to further embolden the far-rightist trend. In Russia, Putin’s victory is almost certain, while Indonesia, too, will see not big and significant change in political trend after the election.
In a nutshell, the elections in 2024 will be instrumental in deciding the fate of democracy across the globe.
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