Editorial
The presumption is that Prime Minister K.P. Oli has done his homework to pronounce that he will face the legislature next week. Having tested his strength in the legislative assemblies at the lower levels of the federation, what cards Oli has evolved in his favour in the federal parliament becomes a matter of conjecture. But the conclusion is that he will have stacked his cards enough to prove his mettle in the house. So far, it seems that he has made it apparent that the Janata Samajbadi Party has split. Deuba’s party is unwilling to budge against him until Congress is assured to replace the UML in the vote. Oli’s own UML opposition may cross the floor and defy his whip, but Oli must have whittled down the votes somewhat. The Maoists in his ranks remain with him but those against may not matter in the game for the prime minister’s chair, Oli has been emboldened in the past weeks to even replace Maoist appointees to the gubernatorial regions by his men and he has even dared reappoint his chief ministers who were being edged out by the vote in the lower parliaments. Admittedly there has been a lot of horse-trading and wishy-washy changes in electoral standpoints. Our political parties are at it again. The flagrant misuse of privileges is reminiscent of Bangkok trips and Pulchok hotel treats of two decades ago. The expectation is that Oli has his tricks and treats to display when he faces the House Monday.
But these are mundane affairs of state. What is not is the stage that Oli sets for the state after the vote. The Prime Minister has his eyes on early elections as has been amply displayed especially in the past months since parliament went to a session at the judicial injunction. Whether he is retained or not, he is sure that the house cannot but allow him his choice. Whether his opponents would want Oli to conduct fresh elections is what matters. With Deuba and the JSP’s Mahantha Thakur allowing him this privilege, it is anticipated that the Maoists and the Oli-opponents in the UML will be the biggest opponents of the polls move. In fact, the race currently is to organize grassroots upwards to isolate Oli supporters in preparation for a poll contest. Perhaps Oli’s decision to face the house is designed to abort the organizational breach. What is for sure is that this race has been made restive at the lower levels as was indicative in the voting mobility at the lower parliaments.
Again, these are affairs that we have been asked to take as mundane in Nepali affairs. Where conjectures will fail is when these systemic aberrations that are forcing early polls will implode.
As a matter of fact the political climate today is not dissimilar to the state of affairs the country faced in course of the interim constitution and the two elections to the constituent assemblies that hurriedly introduced a dubious constitution. It is this that has heightened political anticipation on the cause-effect situation of K.P. Oli’s move. Simply, he has called a dormant house to sit. Simply, again, he cannot but face a house that is theoretically against him. Simply, the country will face fresh polls if he has his way. But there is much of a slip in the design. Oli is perhaps too transparent for the moment.
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