View from America
By M.R. Josse
GAITHERSBURG, MD: This column from America, the second in recent weeks, is being drafted as Americans go to the polls 3 November 2020 to decide whether incumbent Republican president Donald J. Trump is to be awarded another four-year term, or if, instead, his Democratic challenger, former vice-president Joe Biden, will be the next occupant of the White House, come 20 January 2021.
Though every election for a second presidential term is a referendum on the incumbent, this one is perhaps even more so given the razor-sharp polarization of the electorate and uncommon level of bitterness, division, confusion and distrust that seemingly surges through the nation’s body politic.
AMERICA ON TEST AND ON EDGE
By common consent, however, all – the political cognoscenti and the layperson alike – are in apparent agreement that this is the most consequential election in at least a generation. That is not merely because it takes place in the midst of a cruel raging pandemic that has already claimed more than 230,000 precious human lives and is now entering its most lethal phase but even more so because the two campaigns couldn’t be more divergent in their respective attitudes and policies vis-à-vis its management.
It is however, in large measure, also because the two principals in the high-voltage political drama couldn’t be more at odds with each other. Mildly put, they are as different from one another as chalk from cheese in terms of ideologies and/or character.
To provide an international flavour to this moment in America’s political history, I believe it would be germane to quote from this week’s cover story in The Economist, entitled simply: Why it has to be Biden. Here is a telling excerpt:
“Daily life is consumed by a pandemic that has caused about 230,000 reported deaths amid bickering buck-passing and lies. Much of that is Mr. Trump’s doing and his victory in November would endorse it all. Mr. Biden is Mr. Trump’s antithesis. He is not a miracle man for what ails America. But he is a good man who would restore steadiness and civility to the presidency. Were he to be elected, success would not be guaranteed – how could it be? But he would enter the White House promising the gift that democracies can bestow: renewal.”
I should underline, at the very outset, that this column will not cover the official announcement of the result of Election 2020 in America: that will, by all accounts, only happen on 4 November, (America time) if not even later. As such, I envisage penning a future write-up that will focus on the outcome and what it could broadly mean for America and the world.
The delay in completing the counting process, so political gurus assure us, is due mainly to the staggering numbers in early or mail-in votes that have been cast – more than 100 million – before Election Day.
The fact that the Trump campaign has attempted voter intimidation and vote suppression in a myriad of artful ways and the fact that Trump has not categorically stated that he would concede if he loses has generated a general atmosphere of confusion and even fear that there could be widespread violence, especially in large crowded cities, when the results are announced.
In anticipation of possible after-election violence, shops and offices in many cities across America have ‘boarded up’ meaning that they have shuttered their glass windows and such with timber – as most people do to protect themselves from hurricanes and the like.
Interestingly, going by pre-election day utterances by party officials it would seem that both campaigns are nervous that they may be on the losing side. Though most pre-election national polls give Biden a sizeable lead over Trump – and although most observers seem to equate a large early turnout as a manifestation of support for change – there are many that predict that Republican party voters will dominate in voting on Election Day (today) itself.
If there is mob violence and worse in the hours or days ahead it would be a blot on America and American democracy. It would clearly and further undermine America’s international standing, already down in the Trump administration. One hopes therefore that the election process proceeds smoothly and peacefully. We shall know one way or another soon.
RAW GAMES IN NEPAL
In Nepal, it seems a ‘game of thrones’ continues to be played out with much gusto, cunning and opacity with Nepali politicos, aided by a duo of Indian characters – this time, in the shape of Manohar Goel, chief honcho of India’s prime external intelligence agency RAW, and India’s Army chief Gen.M.M. Naravane, who not long ago publicly kicked Nepal in the teeth and thought nothing of it.
The ‘hero’ of the epic movie is, but naturally, none other than Prime Minister K.P.Sharma Oli, an actor of protean talents and ‘avatars’, including the latest – until presently – as a staunch Nepali nationalist not afraid of thumbing his nose at the movers and shakers of Hindustan with their penchant for redrawing maps and assorted other dubious geopolitical talents.
Going by an item in www.sputnik.com, in extending Dusherra greetings to Prime Minister Modi, Oli “stood by an old map of Nepal, showing the disputed region of Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpyadhura within India’s borders.”
While one is naturally surprised – though hardly aghast – at the nimbleness of the ageing ‘nationalist’ thespian in green-lighting the controversial Goel visit, it has – little wonder – stirred a veritable hornet’s nest. After all, Goel not only did not sneak in clandestinely into Kathmandu but arrived in a special Indian Air Force aircraft in broad daylight and then barged in, aides in tow, into the prime minister’s official residence for formal talks!
One had naively imagined that such gaucheries were done with once and for all – with the shimmering dawn of the republican, secular and federal age. Of course, there are just a few in the old country who are unaware of the ‘special role’ in that process played, among other external actors, by a bevy of RAW handlers of our revolutionary Maoist and sundry political legends.
Anyway, I thought it rather weird to learn of the official ‘reason’ for Goel’s controversial visit: preparation for Naravane’s sortie into Kathmandu. One would have thought that the Indian
Embassy/Foreign Office and the defence establishments of the two concerned parties would have been more legitimately involved in such preparatory work, than the cloak-and-dagger RAW.
Its birth – if anyone cares to remember – is linked to the late Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and associated, in public memory, with the subsequent creation of Bangladesh – from what was formerly East Pakistan – and, a bit later, to India’s annexation of Sikkim.
Those dark implications aside, this observer was intrigued by blogger Maila Baje’s recent tongue-in-cheek column on the subject asking – referring to RAW and the BJP regime – who’s playing whom? While that conundrum might be a mite too esoteric for the ordinary reader to tackle, it did whet my curiosity in slogging through an item in The Print, India claiming that this fascinating work division had been worked out between the Indian national security adviser Ajit Doval, ‘active’ in India’s neighbourhood especially China; the U.S. being the concern of India’s defence and external affairs ministries; and Nepal being left to the tender mercies of RAW!
Moving to Naravane’s current official visit – the highlight of which is his being conferred the rank of
General in the Nepal Army by the president – much of the wind was taken out of its sails by a whole army of ‘progressive’ writers/intellectuals putting out a collective statement for the cancellation orhis visit mainly due to his disparaging recent remarks against Nepal, in the context of Nepal’s new parliament-approved map contradicting Indian territorial claim on Nepali territory.
Many in Nepal believe – as does this commentator – that the ‘tradition’ of conferring reciprocal honorary military ranks to the Army chiefs of the two countries concerned should either be done away with; else, it should be instituted with China’s PLA, too.
Sovereign countries should not be in this shady/risky kind of business – especially those sandwiched between two clashing behemoths, as is Nepal. That’s pure common sense.
Against the above backdrop, it is therefore enormously interesting that now appears a speculative story of Oli’s impending resignation – and the stepping into his shoes of none other than Prachanda. I shall believe it when it happens – if it happens!
In the meanwhile, it is worth speculating whether the Goel visit was aimed at shoring up Oli’s political future – as many Nepali commentators believed – or, instead, of weakening him, even while giving the impression that Modi’s interest in Nepal is now centred on playing ball with Oli.
While that enigma will be resolved by and by, what is hugely puzzling is Beijing’s silence in the matter(s) just discussed. After all, not long ago the Indian media had been abuzz with horror stories of Beijing’s baleful activities and its ubiquitous anti-Indian agenda in Nepal. Why is it now all quiet on the northern front, then?
Could it be – just possibly? – that Oli and Modi are now on the cusp of initiating border talks, as indeed speculated by India News? For whatever it is worth, the pundit in question thought it very meaningful that the former defence minister Ishwar Pokharel – allegedly a ‘hawk’ on India – was divested of his defence portfolio on the very eve of Naravane’s three-day sojourn.
Will the outcome of the U.S.now just hours/days away impact the Nepal-China-India saga? While awaiting revealing developments on that score, one has noted a PTI story out of Beijing, quoting Chinese media sources, disclosing that the Chinese Communist Party has just unveiled plans to make the PLA on par with the U.S. military by 2027, marking the centennial year of the PLA’s founding,
I find it absorbing, too, that a story in The Tribune, downplays the recent Indo-U.S. defence deals, arguing that it could be “tempered” by new realities if Trump’s bid for reelection goes south.
The writer can be reached at: manajosse@gmail.com
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