By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

The situation in the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz is one of ‘neither war nor peace’, although Trump has warned that he will soon start hostilities again. This would be catastrophic for all concerned – the U.S., Iran, the neighbouring Gulf countries, the near Middle East region and the world at large.

However, Iran has the upper hand in the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump’s predicament in the impasse is of his making.

In 2018, after he first assumed office, Trump pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal, painstakingly negotiated by Joe Biden over many tears.

He promised that he would then negotiate a much better deal. He couldn’t and didn’t.

Instead, Iran took advantage of the situation and built up its nuclear programme.

The in February of this year, Trump again badly misjudged his leverage, starting a war with Iran that he apparently believed would be brief and successful, “a minor excursion” that would force Iranian leaders to admit defeat.

Instead, Iran took advantage of its geography and seized the Strait of Hormuz.

Now Trump appears to be miscalculating yet again, believing that his naval blockade of Iranian ports and economic pressure will succeed where his bombings failed, writes one of The New York Times chief columnists, Nicholas Kristof (May 2-3).

Trump cancelled a round of talks recently and seems to think that “the United States holds the cards”.

Trump contradicts himself constantly.

He boasts the war will “come to an end very soon,” to Fox News.

He added that Iran is running out of space to store its produced oil. After that, he said, “it just explodes”.

This is mere wishful thinking on his part and contrary to the assessment of petroleum experts.

Iran does seem to be feeling pressure and reportedly is filling tankers and exploring exports by rail line to evade the blockade.

Likewise shutting off wells can cause damage to oil fields, as well as starve Iran of income.

However, the extent Iran’s storage challenge is disputed.

Some analysts believe the problems are overstated and that Iran still has weeks or even months before it reaches a crisis (NYT).

“No credible experts believe that Iran’s oil sector is about to collapse,” Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, an Iran watcher who is chief executive of London-based research organization told NYT.

“Trump’s commitment to the blockade and his repeated statements that Iran is on the verge of collapse suggests that someone outside of government is feeding him unrealistic and politically motivated assessments of the situation in an attempt to undermine diplomacy.”

Danny Citrinowicz, formerly a long-time analyst for Israel’s military intelligence said: “Contrary to the administration’s belief, especially the president’s, that a naval blockade would bring Iran to its knees, Tehran is unlikely to yield on its core strategic demands…

“Even under severe economic pressure, the regime is more likely to dig in, extending the deadlock, while the global economic fallout from disrupted maritime routes and potential strait closures steadily escalates.”

Indeed, Trump has a record of extraordinary over-optimism about the Iran war.

• “We’ve already won,” he said on March 7.
• Two days later, he asserted that the war would be over “very soon”.
•  On March 11, he announced, “We’ve won.”
• On March 20, he said the United States was considering “winding down”.
• Six days later, he said Iran was “begging to make a deal.”
• By April 16, the war “should be ending pretty soon.”
• The next day, he added that peace talks were going so well that “most of the points are already negotiated and agreed to.”

And thus ad infinitum and ad nauseam.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany hit the nail on the head: “The Americans clearly have no strategy.” Speaking of the United States, he added, “An entire nation is being humiliated.”

The basic problem seems to be that each side believes it has the other over a barrel. And each side sees something; The other is hurting.

Kristof’s take is that each side would like an off-ramp but believes that time is on its own side and that the other will have to give in soon.

He underlines that this is a classic problem with authoritarian personalities, whether in Tehran or Washington: They surround themselves with flatterers who tell them that everything is going well and according to plan.

Kristof’s own bet is that Iran may be able to suffer longer, partly because Iran’s dictators don’t face the electorate in the midterm elections in November.

But it’s true that like Trump, Iranian leaders seem cocky and overconfident and have repeatedly miscalculated.

This Iranian tendency to overreach may have increased now that the war has given additional power to hard-liners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

Kristof is alarmed that we now have two overconfident administrations facing off, each wary of appearing weak at home, each believing that time is on its own side, each perceiving the other something of a paper tiger.

That’s not a promising recipe for negotiating a peace deal.

Indeed, The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump has told aides to prepare for an extended blockade.

That could hit the global economy by causing prolonged worldwide shortages of oil and gas and rising prices for everything from medicines to fertilizer, helium to condoms.

Iran has suggested an initial deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, setting aside for later questions such as the nuclear programme.

The United States for now is dissatisfied with that offer.

To its credit, Pakistan is working hard to help bring both sides closer to a deal.

If Trump is in right mind, he should send representatives to try to engage in serious negotiations even if only bon reopening the Strait.

If that initial deal can be worked out, Trump must ensure that he preserves what leverage he has – in the form of sanctions relief – to push for curbs on Iran’s nuclear programme.

That is not so urgent but it is paramount.

For once, Trump was not overstating things when he said that “the only point that really mattered”

was a new nuclear agreement.

U.S. to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany

The United States will withdraw about 5,000 troops from Germany in the next six to 12 months, the Pentagon has announced.

This fulfils Trump’s threat as he clashes with the German chancellor over the US war with Iran (AP/Associated Press, May 2).

The withdrawal suggests American commitments to our allies are dependent on the president’s mood, said Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“The president should immediately cease this reckless action before he causes irreversible consequences for our alliances and long-term national security,” Reed said.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorious told American soldiers in Europe, and especially in Germany, is in our interest and in the interest of the US,” while adding that European allies needed to adjust their defence postures  — and were doing so.

Bradley Bowman, a scholar at the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said the US military presence in Germany and elsewhere in Europe “not only strengthens deterrence against additional Kremlin aggression but also facilitates the projection of American military power into the Mediterranean, the Middle East and Africa.

The writer can be reached at:

shashimalla125@gmail.com