By Our Political Analyst
Nepal’s One-China policy has long been a steady line in its foreign relations. Kathmandu has, for years, avoided any move that could upset Beijing, especially on Tibet. That is why the recent congratulatory message to Balendra Shah from the Tibetan government-in-exile has caught attention, not because of the message itself, but because of when it arrived.
To understand the concern, timing matters. The message from Penpa Tsering, the exiled Dalai Lama’s prime minister, came soon after the Gen Z-led political shift that pushed a new leadership into power. That same movement had already raised eyebrows, with some critics claiming outside backing, though no firm proof has surfaced publicly. Still, in politics, perception often carries weight, and this sequence of events has added fuel to the debate.
Congratulating a new prime minister is normal practice. Leaders across the globe do it. Yet, messages linked to the Tibetan leadership are handled differently in Nepal. For decades, the state has kept a tight lid on public political activity by Tibetan refugees, mainly to avoid friction with China. Even small symbolic gestures have often been avoided or kept low profile.
Looking back, a similar moment came after Sushila Karki stepped in as interim prime minister. She also received greetings from Dalai Lama and his circle. That alone raised some quiet concern in diplomatic circles. Now, with Shah’s appointment, the pattern seems to be repeating, and perhaps becoming more open.
What stands out this time is the tone and visibility. The message to Shah was shared publicly on social media. It praised his rise as a young leader and linked it to the hopes of Nepali youth. It also spoke about the long ties between Nepal and Tibet, pointing to shared history and cultural links. None of this breaks new ground in content, but placing it out in the open shifts the signal it sends.
Since the fall of KP Sharma Oli’s government on September 9, activity among Tibetan groups in Nepal has picked up. Reports and observations suggest more visible engagement, more communication, and a sense that space has opened up, at least for now. That change, paired with the congratulatory message, has led some to question if the One-China policy is being applied with the same strictness as before.
China watches such signals closely. Nepal’s commitment to the One-China policy has never been about written statements alone. It has also been about how the state acts on the ground, how it responds to Tibetan political expression, and how it manages contact with figures linked to the Tibetan movement.
Seen from that angle, the issue is not the message itself. It is the chain of events: a youth-driven political shift, claims of foreign interest, increased Tibetan activities including a rally of the Tibetan Original Blood demanding return of their motherland during the Gen Z demonstration in September 2025, and then a public message from the Tibetan leadership. Each piece on its own may seem routine. Put together, they create a different picture.
For the new government led by Shah, this creates a tricky situation. On one side, there is a strong domestic push for openness and change, especially from younger citizens. On the other, Nepal’s foreign policy has long depended on careful balancing between powerful neighbors and sensitive issues like Tibet.
Handling this will require clear signals. If the government sticks to its past approach, it may need to show that through consistent action, not just words. If it plans to loosen its stance, even slightly, it will have to deal with the response that could come from Beijing.
In the end, the congratulatory message may look small on the surface. Yet, in Nepal’s context, it has sparked a larger conversation. It has pushed people to ask a simple question: is the One-China policy still being followed in the same way, or is something beginning to shift?
Accordingly, Pakistan’s separatist group, the Republic of Balochistan’s Mir Yar Baloch, has also extended congratulatory message to Shah, undermining Nepal’s cordial relations with Pakistan.
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