• A New “Axis of Upheaval” Taking Shape?

By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

According to some western analysts, when President Xi Jinping presided over an enormous demonstration of China’s military might on September 3, there were more than fighter jets and missiles on display to the world at large.

Richard Fontaine and Andrea Kendall-Taylor of the Center for a New American Security write in an opinion piece in The New York Times that Xi flanked by the leaders of Russia, North Korea and Iran, was signalling to the world that a viable alternative to the erratic U.S. leadership does exist (September 6-7).

The parade highlighted that China, in alignment with these other states, was in a position to upend the existing Western international order and resist the current system’s (still) chief architect, the United States.

The new situation and show of unity was remarkable considering that what Fontaine/Kendall-Taylor described as “the Axis of Upheaval”, that just over two months ago some observers had dismissed the understanding between the four Eurasian states as dead or overblown.

After all, in June, China, Russia and North Korea just stood by as Iran endured 12 days of punishing attacks by Israel and the United States.

They did issue statements condemning the attacks but little else.

Regardless, the quadrilateral axis regardless of vast structural differences among the members, see a common adversary in the United States.

Though they may occasionally come to one another’s aid – like the North Korean soldiers who joined their Russian allies in battle against Ukrainian security forces and Iran supplying battle drones to Russia – that is not the point according to Fontaine/Kendall-Taylor.

“The group has a much more ambitious objective.”

The axis, like the Second World War era Axis Powers of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan, “a new order of things,” in which each country can claim “its own proper place.”

They are in deep discontent with an international system they believe denies them the status and freedom of action they deserve by virtue of their power and civilization.  

They are united in the desire and determination to change the Western inspired international order.

Fontaine/Kendall-Taylor are convinced that cooperation among the four constituents has strengthened the military capabilities of America’s adversaries while weakening the foreign policy tools that the U.S. itself can wield to confront them.

Their impact has been most powerful in Ukraine, where China, North Korea and Iran have enabled Russia to sustain its war and better withstand European and international pressure and sanctions.

[Trump and his underlings are unwilling and/or incapable of seeing this larger picture and are attempting to muddle through].

These four axis countries will continue to cultivate their economic and technological ties to improve their ability to bypass U.S. and allied sanctions and export controls while offering third countries alternatives to dependence on America’s market, banks and currency.

However, it is the military impact of the connections between them that is bound to be consequential.

These countries are already sharing military technology and knowhow in ways that allow them to narrow America’s military advantage (NYT).

For instance, their cooperation could very well shorten the timeframe it would take Russia to reconstitute its conventional forces in any pause in the war in Ukraine, by supplying additional ammunition or the component parts Russia needs to manufacture more weapons faster.

This could create a window of vulnerability for NATO if Russia can rebuild faster than Europe can revamp its military capabilities.

Axis cooperation also complicates the overall security picture for U.S. and allied defence planners who can no longer assume that any one of these countries would fight alone, either because one or more of these countries provides military aid and weapons or, less likely, fighters.

And there is also a risk that they could initiate concurrent crises in an explicitly coordinated or opportunistic manner, overstretching U.S. bandwidth and capabilities.

Indeed, the turnout in Beijing suggests that the axis, rather than withering following the war in Iran in June, has momentum.

Its members sense an opportunity.

After all, the Trump administration is:

• Annoying America’s long-time allies and partners
• Withdrawing humanitarian aid and development assistance from the Global South
• Ceasing international broadcasting and democracy support, and
• Explicitly declining to play its long-time global leadership role.

For Xi, Putin, Kim and Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran, there may never be a better moment to challenge the (still) U.S.-led global system and hasten American retrenchment.

According to Fontaine/Kendall-Taylor, any attempt to reset relations with Russia is not only bound to fail – as it has before – but also exacerbate the problem.

Putin will not abandon his true view of Washington as the key obstacle of Moscow’s aims, and he is unlikely to believe that a single U.S. president can undo, in any long-term way, decades of antagonistic U.S. foreign policy.

Efforts to lure China are likely to be similarly futile.

Unlike Fontaine/Kendall-Taylor’s assessment, Trump and his crooked administration is not aware of the challenge the Axis poses.

They are optimistic that Washington does have the necessary tools at its disposal to overcome the Axis:

• The American economy is the world’s largest and most attractive
• Its alliance system is still unparalleled
• Its network of overseas bases unmatched, and
• Its military might enormous.
• American values of democracy, basic human rights and dignity, and of opportunity and equality – are a supreme strength [Unfortunately, Trump and his cohorts are undercutting these extensively – horizontally and vertically].

Trump and his minions are so completely mentally deranged and misinformed – and completely mismanaging America’s domestic and external affairs – that there is no room for optimism that America can sustain a global order that is far superior to anything the axis has to offer.

The writer can be reached at:

shashimalla125@gmail.com