By Rabi Raj Thapa
This week’s surprising coalition of Nepali Congress and the UML leader and fall of CPN (Maoist) led by “Prachanda” is no less surprising news for Nepal and Nepali people. In the Western World, the NATO Leaders’ Summit (July 9-11, 2024) in Washington D.C. and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s agenda of boosting allied defence and deterrence strategy seems to change when the Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban, the new rotating president of the European Union and head of the European Council made an unannounced visit to Ukraine to discuss on ceasefire and negotiation to end the Russo-Ukraine war. French President Emmanuel Macron who had announced the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine in February got himself cornered and knocked off balance by the first far-right government since Nazi occupation of France in 1940.
In May 2024, news of Spanish authority interception and denial to dock to a cargo ship “Marin Danica” carrying 27 tons of explosive materials en route to Israel from Madras, raised a question about India’s commitment to peace in the Middle East.
At the same time, an audio-visual released by Al Jazeera TV of the remains of a missile fired by an Israeli warplane with the label “Made in India” dragged India into controversy and questioned its urge for restrain and condemnation of Israel’s attack on refugees camp in Rafain Gaza. Such incidences made Randhir Jaisawal, Spokesperson of the External Affairs Ministry of India address publicly and clarify them matters. (Re: Palki Sharma; First post, VINTAGE TV, June 8, 2024)
Geopolitically, Nepal is sandwiched between two economic giants and military powers like India and China. Recently, the Global Firepower Index ranked India as the fourth strongest military in the world, just after China. China has become the biggest in defense in Asia. In the year 2023-24, India allocated 73.9 billion US dollars on defense and China reserved 229 billion US dollars budget for military. Now India has become one of the top twenty-five arms exporting countries of the world (Stockholm International Peace and Research Institute (SIPRI) Report)
In such a volatile situation, Nepal is embroiled in political chaos and its security equation is nowhere in the picture. In 2022, a visiting US four-star general Charles A. Flynn had said that only Nepal’s desire to be out of conflict and war may not be possible when its internal and external actors and forces intend otherwise.
Therefore, politics aside, Nepal also needs to pave the way and reorient itself to understand, adjust and accommodate to the changing geopolitical situation.
Besides border security issues with China and India, Nepal is committed to international commitments like the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) which has prompted China to push forward its stalled BRI implementation plan recently. Nepal has been able to stall the State Partnership Program (SPP) which is still in limbo to date. The US Embassy in Nepal has interpreted security relationships other than a military alliance. (US Embassy Kathmandu Factsheet, June 17, 2022). Very few Nepalese may have a good idea of what really SPP is.
Despite security sensitivity and vulnerabilities, Nepal’s national security issues have not been able to get priority as required. There is a trust deficit in policymakers, oversight government institutions and security actors as far as the national security is concerned.
All Nepalese security apparatus–Nepal Army, Nepal Police, Armed Police Force and national intelligence agency–lack enough manpower, training and resources.
Whatever may be the case, Nepal needs to strive hard to immunize itself by least indulging in security pacts and agreements. That may be the only way to get out of security issues which may push Nepal quagmire of future conflict and save Nepal from falling a frying pan to fire.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect People’s Review’s editorial stance.
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