Trump Causes Havoc in the Middle East Region
By Shashi Malla
US President Donald Trump’s abrupt pullback of US troops from north-eastern Syria has not only completely reshaped the complicated civil war in that country, but also the political and military landscape, as well as, the international strategic constellation in the region.
It is first of all important and necessary to evaluate the instigator-in-chief of this catastrophic turn of events. Trump has turned out to be the most inept chief executive and commander-in-chief in the history of the United States [and also the most corrupt according to former Vice President Joe Biden, his putative challenger], but still he considers himself the most competent president [POTUS] and brags about it most unabashedly! The mythological Greek Narcissus must be squirming. He stands completely naked, like ‘the emperor with his fantastic new clothes’, but no one has the guts to inform him, least of all the Republican leaders with their cowardly behavior. Thus Trump plods on, causing havoc not only in the domestic arena, but in the world at large.
In the short span of only seven days, since Trump used what he called his “great and unmatched wisdom” to order the withdrawal of US troops from their outposts in north-eastern Syria, the map of the Syrian civil/international war has been completely transformed.
Trump’s unilateral and shortsighted decision was made without the help of his own national security and foreign policy advisers, his Kurdish allies on the ground in Syria, as well as, his international coalition partners in the region in the fight against the dreaded Islamic State in Syria (ISIS). His order to pull out of a so-called “endless war” gave Turkey the green light to send its troops into Syria, i.e. invade the sovereign territory of a neighbouring state. This has complicated the ground reality in this northern part of the country no end.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has claimed and justified his military’s incursion with the argument that he was targeting the Kurds of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) because they are allied to his country’s own minority Kurdish rebels, fighting for their own autonomy, and, therefore, posing a grave security threat. He planned to control both sides of the Turkish border with north-eastern Syria, and to set up an occupation/security zone around 32 km deep. And into that zone he wants to evict more than two million Syrian refugees, currently living in Turkey. This would not be a good idea, as it would change the demographic structure of that region radically.
Just a week ago, the small number of US troops [mostly in an advisory and training capacity] were the substantial symbol of what seemed to be a security guarantee to the Syrian Kurds, who had become indispensable allies in the war against the extremist jihadists of the Islamic State (IS). The Kurds fought valiantly and resolutely and died on the ground in substantial numbers [the allied loss was negligible], while the US, the UK and others provided air power and special forces troops. When the so-called Caliphate, the self-styled entity of the IS collapsed [but was not completely wiped out as Trump had claimed], the Kurds rounded up and jailed thousands of jihadists fighters and put their family members in guarded camps.
In the blink of an eye, Trump changed the scenario by capitulating to Erdogan and “set off a chain of events that betrayed America’s ally, the Syrian Kurds, and opened a cornucopia of opportunities for Turkey, the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad, its backers, Russia and Iran, and the jihadist extremists of Islamic State (IS)” (Jeremy Bowen/BBC).
After Trump’s ignominious betrayal, the Kurds, for reasons of existential self-preservation, had no other option than to make a quick deal with the detested regime of President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia and Iran and a sworn adversary of the United States.
After massive domestic and international condemnation, the Trump administration has now attempted to put back the clock in damage control, or to use another metaphor, it is trying to shut the stable door after the horse has already bolted. The US has sanctioned Turkey’s defence and energy ministries, as well as the ministers of defence, energy and the interior. Trump also phoned his Turkish counterpart Erdogan to demand an immediate truce. But the authoritarian Erdogan will not back down, because he also sees this foreign adventure as a welcome means to bolster his flagging domestic support.
Nor will Trump’s favourite tactic of using tariffs and sanctions as a tool of foreign policy work, as it has also not done so vis-à-vis China, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela. There has already been a sea change on the ground in North-Eastern Syria, and a return to the status quo ante is well nigh impossible. Trump has been left high and dry with no domestic or international support.
Trump has now sent his vice president Mike Pence, his secretary of state [SoS] Mike Pompeo and national security adviser Robert O’Brien [in office only a bare month] on a fool’s errand to Ankara to call back the dogs of war. Because of the domestic impeachment enquiry, Trump’s beloved walls are closing in on him, and to put it very mildly and in American jargon, he has lost his cool!
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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