BY SHASHI MALLA
• Nepal: UN Peace Keeping in the Doldrums?
The United States remains the largest donor to the United Nations, contributing more than US $ Dollar 10 billion in 2017. In 2018, the US paid 28 % percent of the budget towards peace-keeping operations, but had proposed reducing its contribution to 25 % in 2019. This amounted to more than a US $ Dollar 200 million decrease this year. This has now impacted Nepal’s contribution to the UN’s peace keeping operations in various countries.
The Nepalese Army currently has 5,095 soldiers serving in South Sudan, Congo, Lebanon, Central African Republic, Syria, Libya, Mali, Iraq, Sudan, Western Sahara and Israel.
The Nepal Police has servicemen and officers in South Sudan, Congo, Haiti and Somalia.
The Armed Police Force has militiamen in South Sudan, Haiti and Somalia.
According to the Naya Patrika Daily (September 13, 2019), the United Nations Secretariat is in such financial straits, that huge amounts are now outstanding to the three national security services. The Nepal Army has yet to receive NPR 10 billion (6 arab), and the two other services one billion (1 arab) each.
This, of course, means a huge forfeiture in lost interest, according to the Nepal Army spokesman, Brigadier General Bigyan Dev Pandey. For the Army alone this would mean a net loss of NPR 1000 million per annum at a fixed deposit of 10 % percent simple interest. It can thus be said that the Army is currently self-financing its UN Peace Keeping Operations from the previously saved funds! This is all because of US President Trump’s short-sighted foreign policy in practically every sphere. The CNN’s perspicacious Fareed Zakaria wrote in The Washington Post: “Trump’s foreign policy is in shambles. It has produced turmoil but achieved almost nothing” (September 13, 2019).
• Yemen Rebels attack Saudi Oil Facilities/US blames Iran
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militants said it attacked two plants at the heart of Saudi Arabia’s oil industry in the eastern city of Abqaiq – perhaps the most critical facility in the world for oil supply — on Saturday, knocking out more than half the kingdom’s output. This latest incident is expected to send oil prices soaring and simultaneously increase tensions in the Middle East (Reuters).
The pre-dawn strikes follow earlier cross-border attacks on Saudi oil installations and on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman waters, but these were the most flagrant yet, temporarily crippling much of the nation’s production capacity.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s biggest exporter, shipping more than 7 million barrels of oil to global destinations every day, and for years has served as the supplier of last resort to international markets.
While the Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack, US Secretary of State [SoS] Mike Pompeo squarely blamed Iran, writing on Twitter that there was “no evidence the attack came from Yemen,” adding “Amid all the calls for de-escalation, Iran has now launched an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply.”
Saudi de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman [aka ‘MBS’] told US President Trump by telephone that Riyadh had the will and capability “to confront and deal with this terrorist aggression.”
The US condemned the attacks and Trump told the crown prince that Washington was ready to work with the kingdom to guarantee its security.
Saudi Arabia, leading a Sunni Muslim coalition [which includes the United Arab Emirates/UAE] that intervened in Yemen in 2015, has blamed regional rival Shi’ite Iran for previous attacks, which Tehran vehemently denies. Riyadh also accuses Iran of arming the Houthis.
Fact is that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are hopelessly bogged down in the Yemen civil war, which the UN has declared the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The US and UK are also culpable since they heavily supply arms and ammunition to the Gulf Coalition and support it logistically.
In Iran, it may be the case of the right hand not knowing what the left hand’s doing, i.e. the ‘peace faction’ around President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister, being kept in the dark by the ‘war faction’ led by the Revolutionary Guards.
As a CNN military intelligence expert stated succinctly: “This is the handiwork of a sophisticated (most likely State) actor. The precise nature of the intelligence used to conduct targeting, the mission planning that went into this to avoid radar detection, as well as the selection of the targets shows a robust capability that would most likely be the work of a government or government-sponsored group.”
Trump has warned that the US is “locked and loaded” to respond militarily. Tensions are flaring as Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were ready for a counterattack, naming the US Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar and Al Dhafra Air Base near Abu Dhabi in the UAE as immediate targets, as well as US Navy ships [including an aircraft carrier] in the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
• Kashmir: Domestic & Bilateral Tensions
In early August, PM Narendra Modi’s government withdrew the Himalayan state of Jammu & Kashmir’s (J & K) autonomous status, declaring it a union territory under New Delhi’s direct jurisdiction. The decision was followed by a security clampdown in the region, including on internet and telephone services.
The move dealt a further blow to India’s relations with next-door neighbor Pakistan which also claims the whole of the state, but only ‘administers’ certain parts. In response, Pakistan decided to downgrade diplomatic ties and suspend trade with India.
In a wide-ranging interview with the German TV-channel Deutsche Welle (DW), Pakistan’s ambassador to Germany, Jauhar Saleem, spoke about the importance of the Kashmir issue in Islamabad. He said Pakistan considers the Indian government’s actions in Kashmir tantamount to ‘genocide’. Pakistan’s PM Imran Khan had also warned of “genocide of Muslims” in J & K.
DW strongly contradicted the ambassador and also terming the issue an “international dispute” as the Simla Agreement of 1972 had called upon the two countries to resolve the issue ‘bilaterally’.
The envoy rejected India’s accusation that Pakistan was pursuing “a form of alternate diplomacy” and was at the “epicenter of global terrorism”, since even the US State Department listed a number of terror organizations: Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammed, Lashkar-e-Taiba, which are clandestinely active in India and headquartered in Islamabad and Lahore, Punjab. India had also politicized the matter by tasking the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to put Pakistan on its watchlist. After all, “Pakistan has been at the forefront of defeating global terrorism.”
Ambassador Saleem suggested that India should first withdraw the security clampdown in Kashmir which has plunged the region into a very dangerous situation, and also re-establish communication links there. Pakistan would then send its ambassador back to New Delhi and then “We will resume dialogue with India and then the two sides have to sit and speak seriously and in a meaningful way, with an open mind.”
In the meantime, India’s Supreme Court ruled on Monday that the federal government should restore normal life in Kashmir as soon as possible, as a partial shutdown of the disputed region entered its 42ndday.
The federal government had submitted that restrictions were still required in order to maintain law and order, and that they had prevented widespread casualties seen in previous periods of unrest. India’s Solicitor General stated: “Not a single life has been lost since the abrogation of Article 370” (Reuters).
• Brexit: Still No Way Forward
The opposition Labour Party has demanded that Parliament be recalled after the government published an assessment of the possible impact of a no-deal exit from the European Union (EU) in the so-called Yellowhammer document. Former PM Gordon Brown said the government was “still not telling the truth” about the “sheer scale” of the possible effects of no deal. “The worst-case scenario document downplays the risks to medical supplies, the threat to household budgets and the damage inflicted on the most vulnerable,” he said (BBC).
Scotland’s highest civil court has already ruled that the government’s proroguing (suspension) of parliament was unlawful.
MPs have also passed a bill by 327 votes to 299 that forces the PM Boris Johnson to ask for an extension beyond the 31 October deadline if a deal is not reached with the EU. However, Johnson has said he would rather “die in a ditch” than request an extension, and at present the UK is still officially due to leave the EU on Halloween.
After a meeting on Monday between President Jean-Claude Juncker of the European Commission and PM Johnson, Britain had still not proposed any workable alternatives to the question of the open border between Northern Ireland (UK) and the Irish Republic (EU) – the so-called “backstop” provisions of the Brexit withdrawal agreement. Most analysts suspect that Boris is using all the tricks of the trade!
Thus, even if the UK Supreme Court does rule against Boris’s government [and rules to restore Parliament], MPs might still not return. Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s senior adviser [and for some Brits, the ‘evil genius’], has told colleagues that the PM could just suspend parliament a second time! Not for nothing has Cummings been compared and equated with the Russian monk Rasputin, who exerted great influence over Tsar Nicholas II and his family during World War I, steadily discredited the imperial family and was one of the main causes of the Russian Revolution.
• Israel: Will Elections bring Tranquility?
Nepal recognized Israel as a state in the 50’s of the last century. It was the first country in South Asia to do so, and remained the only country in the region recognizing the Jewish state for decades: Still the Nepali Congress, and especially prime minister B.P. Koirala cultivated and promoted close relations with Israel at a time when it was surrounded by Arab enemy states and in spite of backlash from Moslem countries. India recognized Israel quite late, and Pakistan still refuses to do so. Unfortunately, in the meantime, Nepal’s relations with Israel have been allowed to cool down. Our present Maoist/Communist rulers have also not evidenced any urge to strengthen relations with the small, but most powerful country in the Middle East/West Asia.
Israel’s current prime minister Benjamin Netenyahu has done everything to remain in power leading to this Tuesday’s general elections. This includes soliciting US President Trump’s support [both have repeatedly highlighted their ‘special’ relationship] and promising to annex the Jordan Valley in the Palestinian West Bank after his election victory. He has also attempted to underscore that he has clout with great power Russia.
This week Tuesday, the Israeli electorate returned for a second round of voting in six months. He needs the extreme far-right votes in order to survive in office and prevent an impending corruption charge. Until the eve of the elections, it seemed that his Likud party did not have the numbers to overtake the Blue & White Party of Lt.Gen.(Retd.) Benny Gantz, a centrist with whom he was running neck and neck.
• CPC: To Hong Kong Protesters: ‘West can’t solve your problems’
Mainland China’s ruling Communist Party has said on social media (WeChat) that Hong Kong’s young people should look north for economic opportunities instead of pinning their hopes on Western countries to solve their financial woes. This highlighted socio-economic factors such as the lack of affordable housing in the city as a root cause of the Hong Kong protests, signaling a shift in Beijing’s publicity efforts in relation to the ongoing unrest (SCMP/South China Morning Post, September 14, 2019).
The article also said that Western countries were neither able nor willing to solve the problems facing the people of Hong Kong: “The places ‘helped’ by Western countries to usher in ‘democracy and freedom’ are all in trouble. Western countries can’t even solve their domestic problems…it is a fantasy to ask them to help people thousands of miles away.”
The commentary also noted that that the protesters were aggravating the city’s economic problems by damaging public property and causing a downturn in the catering, retail and hotel sectors.
• US: Trump’s Approval Rating Slips amid Economic Downturn & Trade War
In his bid for a second term, President Donald Trump is facing head winds. In the latest CNN polls, his overall approval has dropped to 39 % percent. A whopping 55 % percent disapprove of what he has achieved so far.
His poor approval rating consists of largely 88 % percent support from Republicans, only 34 % percent from Independents and a meagre 7 % percent from Democrats. Without garnering more support from Independents, his re-election campaign looks dismal.
If his support structure is broken down under gender and race, the situation is even less rosy. A majority of white men with 54 % percent do support him, but only 42 % percent of white women. In the 2018 mid-term Congressional elections, suburban white women abandoned the Republican Party in droves, resulting in the Democrats taking over the House of Representatives and the chairmanships of all committees.
It looks very dismal with only 37 % percent approval among Hispanic men (Latinos), and a mere 23 % percent among Hispanic women.
His approval rating among African-Americans can be termed catastrophic. Only 15 % percent of black men support him to date, and only a disastrous 3 % percent of black women. This could be an unsurmountable barrier.
His administration’s record on various policy issues is not appreciated. Thus, his approval on various policies is lower than 50 % percent:
Economy: 48 % percent
International Trade: 39 % percent
Foreign Affairs: 37 % percent
Gun Control: 38 % percent
Immigration: 37 % percent
Health Care: 41 % percent
His approval rating on various policies thus hovers around the support from his base.
Bottom Line: Only 36 % percent of all respondents thought that Donald Trump deserved to be re-elected, and a great majority of 60 % percent thought that he did not!
Trump is also trailing several Democratic presidential candidates by notable margins in potential 2020 matchups: former Vice President Joe Biden (55 % to 40 %), Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (52 % to 43 %), Massachusetts Senator (51 % to 44 %) Elizabeth Warren and California Senator Kamala Harris (50 % to 43 %). Where is he going to bring the success(es) to stem his [probable] full-blown panic?
On a lighter vein:
Trump: “America will go to hell if any of these people [i.e. these radical left Democrats] win the White House.”
Wit’s reply: ‘Under you, America is already at the gates!’
Odds & Ends
When the Nepali-American fashion designer Prabal Gurung was planning his runway show for New York’s Fashion Week titled “Who gets to be American?” with a vision of redefining American style through a multi-cultural approach, he was told [disparagingly] in a business meeting: “How can you define American, you don’t look American.”
He responded in style, rebuking at the same time Trump and his ilk for their misbegotten immigration policies: “I am American, I became an American citizen, I’ve been living here for 20 years, I pay my taxes. Not only that, but the majority of the clothes that I make, are made in New York and in America, I have spoken on social issues, contributed and been an active member of this country. So when is it going to be enough?” (TIME Magazine)
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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