By Our Political Analyst
When the Nepali Congress’ new generation leaders Dhanraj Gurung, Gagan Thapa and Minendra Rijal compared Madhav Nepal and Prachanda as pats hanging on the ear of an elephant (NC) and publicly claimed that NC is not interested for developing an election alliance with the communist parties, Madhav Nepal, chairman of the CPN Unified Socialist Party (US) rushed to Baluatar and held one-on-one talks with PM Deuba.
Nepal is learnt to have said to Deuba that if NC is not ready to develop an election alliance, the situation for the Nepali Congress could be counterproductive.
Deuba, responding to Nepal, said that he has never thought about contesting elections without an alliance.
Deuba again assured Nepal saying that he has already given words to the alliance partners for contesting all three elections – local level, provincial and federal elections – through an alliance.
Deuba clarified that those NC leaders who are speaking against the election alliance, are afraid of not getting the election ticket by their men. However, Deuba said that he is going to incorporate their (leaders from Deuba’s rival camp) men in the election.
Deuba finally assured Nepal of consolidating the election alliance among the five parties in the government.
Deuba has publicly instructed party leaders in the NC not to use humiliating words against the alliance partners.
Deuba’s rival camp against alliance:
Those in Deuba’s rival camp led by Sekhar Koirala are against an alliance during the election. They believe that after the split in the communist parties, they have become weak and NC alone can secure a majority in all three levels of elections.
Also, NC is a large and old political party. Many leaders are waiting for the election ticket. Distributing tickets to the party workers is a Herculean task even if NC will give candidature in all the seats. Cutting down the candidature and giving tickets to other party’s candidate is thus difficult. In such a situation, many of the candidates may revolt in the party and give independent candidature if they fail to get a ticket.
Although Deuba has assured Nepal and Prachanda of developing an election alliance, the elected central committee members are putting pressure on Deuba for not developing an election alliance.
Meanwhile, Deuba’s confidant and vice president Purna Bahadur Khadka said that the NC is yet to decide on developing an election alliance with other political parties.
Madhav Nepal’s worry:
Madhav Nepal during the meeting of the alliance partners had proposed holding an early election of the federal parliament by dissolving the House.
Nepal, also talking to journalists, had remarked that as Olijee is continuously disrupting the House affairs, it would be better to go for an early election by dissolving Parliament.
In fact, Nepal is suspicious of the honesty of the NC voters and whether they will cast vote for the communist candidates or not.
The other thing is that after splitting from the UML, Nepal has felt that he has become very weak. During the party meeting also, Nepal said that his party is yet to be organized in a better manner. The party organization in the different districts is very poor. The party has even no candidates to contest in many of the local organs.
UML claims that a small portion of people has quit the party but the party has compensated for the loss from joining the Maoist Center leaders in the party. Therefore, the party is still strong in grassroots organizations, UML leaderships have believed.
As Nepal is suspicious of the honesty of the NC voters, he suspects that if there will be a betrayal from the NC voters, the election alliance can break and during the federal election, the parties in the alliance may contest elections separately. Therefore, he was insisting on holding all elections together or holding the federal elections earlier than the local elections.
The other reason is that in the previous local level election, UML had bagged the majority of the local organs. If again the UML will bag majority in the upcoming local level elections, it may affect the result of the provincial and federal level elections.
Nepal and Maoist Center chairman Pushpakamal Dahal Prachanda are disturbed from the same psychology and time and again, talking about postponing the local election scheduled for 13 May 2022.
Deuba’s suspect:
Deuba doesn’t trust the communists. Deuba believes that still the communist parties are closed to China. Therefore, the communist parties may join hands together under the initiative of the Chinese diplomats. Deuba believes that anytime, UML and Maoist Center may join hands, however, due to the enmity between Oli and Nepal, the latter may not join hands with Oli, Deuba has analysed.
If Oli and Prachanda join hands during the elections, as in the previous elections, the NC will face a defeat.
Therefore, Deuba is compelled to engage Nepal (CPN-SP) and Prachanda (MC) to secure victory.
No early elections:
Madhav Nepal said to go for an early election but there is a constitutional hurdle for conducting an early election. However, constitutional expert Bhimarjun Acharya said that the constitution has not allowed going for an early election.
It is believed, by now, Nepal is convinced by Deuba and he has given up the idea of an early election.
Election alliance modality:
Although the alliance partners have talked about developing an election alliance, they have not forged the modality of the alliance.
Deuba is thinking about sharing the seats at the ratio of 60:40 i.e. keeping 60 percent seats for NC and giving 40 percent to other alliance partners, said a NC source.
Another modality could be the allotment of seats based on the party’s position. Giving the seat to NC candidate if NC had won the post in the previous election. If NCP-US (presently sided with CPN-US) has won the seat in the previous election, that should be given to NCP-US and if Maoist Center had won the post, giving the seat to MC. And sharing the posts in which UML had won the elections based on 60:40 ratio.
These are the two modalities developed until now.
During the recent National Assembly election for 19 seats, the second modality was endorsed and that had become effective.
Election patron:
Still, UML seems strong organization. There will be competition between UML and NC if contested elections individually.
Whether the alliance will work effectively during the local elections, cannot be said.
Especially in local elections, local circumstances, local agendas, candidates’ relations, and behaviour of the candidate will influence the election rather than the political ideology.
However, in federal and provincial elections, party-wise voting will work. Nevertheless, a certain percent of voters will not cast their vote to the candidate having another political belief.
In the previous local elections also, the alliance between the different political parties didn’t work effectively.
If alliance is failed, it is sure, the future of the CPN-US and Maoist Center is going to be finished, however, it is believed, they remain in the mainstream politics if they receive the blessings of the Nepali Congress.
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