Review of World Affairs (RWA)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
The State of Democracy: In Nepal & the World
U.S. President Joe Biden is holding the virtual “Summit for Democracy” next month. There are 110 participants on the State Department’s invitation list for the virtual event on December 9 and 10, which aims to help stop democratic backsliding and the erosion of rights and freedoms. The list does not include China and Russia – America’s leading antagonists (Reuters, Nov. 24).
But – surprise, surprise – Nepal has been honoured to participate in this august gathering, although the American Embassy in Kathmandu should be aware that the country’s democratic process has been steadily backsliding and that the so-called leaders – including their own blue-eyed boy Sher Bahadur Deuba — are beyond redemption.
Perhaps, this was a last-ditch attempt by the Americans to goad the Dons [the bosses of the various Mafia clans posing as democratic political parties] to push through the US-aided MCC project. But this belated attempt is a hopeless endeavour – the country has already gone to the dogs and there is nothing in the pact to serve the dons personally.
Nepal’s position as a geopolitical buffer to China – which the U.S. now considers its main antagonist and rival for the number one slot in world affairs – and, of course, adjacent to its strategically India, was the principal reason for its inclusion.
Combining Freedom House’s index scores with tallies from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project yields revealing results.
V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index: a score closer to 0 signifies a country is less democratic and a score closer to 1 signifies that a country is more democratic.
Freedom House Global Freedom scores: a score of 0-33 indicates that a country is not free. 34-71 indicates that a country is partly free, and 72-100 indicates that a country is free.
(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
How South Asian Invitees Score on Democracy Indices:
Country V-Dem Index Freedom House Scores
India 0.45 67
Maldives 0.583 —
Pakistan 0.368 37
Nepal 0.573 56
Switzerland 0.892 96
India’s country status has been judged partly free, and the regime type electoral autocracy.
According to the French scholar Christophe Jaffrelot, India under Narendra Modi has completely succumbed to “electoral authoritarianism”. Multi-party elections still take place, but they lack “democratic substance” (“Modi’s India: Hindu Nationalism and the Rise of Ethnic Democracy”).
Pakistan is also considered partly free and also an electoral autocracy.
Nepal has been adjudged partly free and [surprisingly] an electoral democracy. Data lag was definitely an issue.
In comparison, Switzerland is a fully free and liberal democracy.
The U.S.’ mix of invitees includes liberal democracies, weaker democracies and several states with authoritarian characteristics. The Biden team did not limit participation to a core group of committed democracies, rather it opted for a big tent approach.
The majority of invitees – 77 countries – rank as “free” or fully democratic according to Freedom House’s 2021 report.
Another 31 invitees rank as “partly free”. To this group belong the only 4 participants from South & Central
Asia – India, Maldives, Nepal and Pakistan. It is doubtful whether any country from this group can make a meaningful contribution to the proceedings or later development.
Finally, three countries fall into the “not free” camp – Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo, Iraq.
According to Carnegie Endowment, three factors played a role in the choice of participants:
- Regional dynamics
2. Broader U.S. strategic interests
3. A ‘democratic do-no-harm test’ played a role in certain cases
Taking into consideration the above, the ‘Summit Invitation List’ also made certain revelations:
- Reform-minded leadership helped nudge several borderline countries onto the list, as in Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia.
2. Upcoming elections with the potential for big leadership changes, as in the Philippines and Kenya.
3. Big democracies generally received a pass, notwithstanding troubling reversals on individual rights and freedoms, as in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan.
4. Special treatment was also offered to very small states [with populations under 1 million] – altogether 30 mini-states.
However, Biden’s ‘democracy project’ itself is on shaky ground in the world’s oldest representative democracy where democratic backsliding is well on its way. Anti-democratic norms and practices are spreading in Republican-governed states of America. Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution wrote: “The acceleration of a democratic recession into a democratic depression [all around the world] happened largely on Trump’s watch,” (Foreign Affairs: “A World Without American Democracy?”, July 2, 2021).
Russia Threatens Ukraine Again
Ukraine claims that Russia has kept about 90,000 troops near their common border following massive war games in western Russia earlier this year. The Ukrainian Defence Ministry said units of the Russian 41st army remain near Yelnya, about 260 kilometers north of the border.
Moscow denies that it’s planning any invasion and refuses to provide details about troop movements on its own territory.
However, NATO has reacted very sharply. NATO-Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned last Friday: “If Russia uses force against Ukraine that will have costs, that would have consequences,” ahead of a meeting of the 30-nation military organization’s foreign ministers in Latvia, November 30-December 1. (AP/Nov. 26). Stoltenberg did not elaborate about what help non-NATO member Ukraine could expect.
“This is the second time this year that Russia has amassed a large and unusual concentration of forces in the region,” Stoltenberg enumerated. He said it includes tanks, artillery, combat-ready troops.
“This military buildup is unprovoked and unexplained. It raises tensions and it risks miscalculations, he added further. At the same time, he conceded that “there is no certainty about the intentions of Russia” but added that “this is a military buildup by a country that has invaded Ukraine before.”
Ukraine President alleges Russia-backed Coup immanent
Ukrainian President VolodymyrZelenskyy claimed last Friday that his country’s intelligence service has uncovered plans for a Russia-backed coup d’etat in the country set for next week that allegedly involves one of Ukraine’s richest oligarchs, RinatAkhmetov.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the allegations. “Russia had no plans to get involved,” he insisted. “Russia never does such things at all” [ ! ].
Russia Denies Invasion Plan
Russia has no plans to invade Ukraine and suggested to the contrary that these are malicious propaganda fabricated by the US State Department, according to Moscow’s foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin (Reuters, Nov. 27).
Moscow has also accused Washington, Kyiv and NATO of provocative and irresponsible behaviour near its borders.
American Pundits’ Opinion
Two American scholars, Michael Kimmage (professor of history at the Catholic University of America) and Michael Kofman ( senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security) paint a more dire picture: “Ominous signs indicate that Russia may conduct a military offensive in Ukraine as early as the coming winter” (Foreign Affairs: “Russia Won’t Let Ukraine Go Without a Fight,” Nov. 22).
First, gradually Russia has been losing political influence in Ukraine.
Second, Ukraine has simultaneously been expanding its security cooperation with Russia’s main rivals – the U.S. and Western Europe.
Third, America’s shifting of attention and resources to its intense competition with China may have convinced Vladimir Putin that Ukraine is now only of peripheral interest for the U.S.
Germany’s New Coalition Promises Progressive Agenda
The Social Democrats, the Greens and the Free Democrats have put forward several progressive policies in their coalition agreement that represents a departure from those of the Angela Merkel era.
The three parties set to form the next German government [after two grueling months of negotiations] presented their plans in Berlin last Wednesday under the title “Dare more Progress”, aiming to set themselves apart from the Merkel era by serving as an “Alliance for Freedom, Justice, and Sustainability”, as the parties designated their cooperation pact (DW/Deutsche Welle, Nov. 24).
The key point appears to be between the two junior partners in the coalition: the Greens and the neo-liberal Free Democrats (FDP). The environmentalists were able to secure the goal of ending Germany’s coal industry “ideally” by 2030, eight years ahead of the German government’s current target.
The FDP managed to claim the second most powerful office in the land: their party leader, Christian Lindner, is now poised to take over the Finance Ministry, currently held by the future SPD-chancellor, Olaf Scholz.
Green co-leader Robert Habeck is set to take over the Economy and Energy Ministry whose portfolio is to be expanded into climate as well. He will also be vice-chancellor.
The other Greens’ co-chair, Ms Annalena Baerbock is set to become the country’s next foreign minister, the first woman to do so.
Instead of giving her the benefit of any doubts, the maverick, firebrand and disruptive Left party politician, Oskar Lafontaine [formerly of the SPD] has prematurely jumped to conclusions and predicted that the 40-year-old would be a ‘catastrophe’ in the post [strangely in the conservative Die Welt newspaper!].
In fact, Baerbock has an interesting and impressive background. She has attended school in the U.S., studied at the London School of Economics & Political Science, where she was awarded an M.A. in Public International Law. She could not complete her doctorate in Berlin because of the pressing duties of family [she is the mother of two girls] and politics.
Besides her experience in the Bundestag, she has also served as an assistant to a Green lawmaker in the European Parliament.
Therefore, before acting as prophets of doom, her presumptive critics should give her an opportunity to prove herself!
Other Green priorities have also been included: The new government is aiming to ensure that by 2030, some 80 % percent of the country’s power comes from renewable sources (doubling the current production) and that 15 million fully electric cars are on German roads.
Habeck also promised that the tripartite contract would put Germany “on the path to 1.5 degrees” – meaning to cap the current rise in global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, a goal many climate scientists already see as out of reach.
Abandonment of Conservative Policies
There was plenty of evidence that the conservative impulses of Chancellor Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which has been leading the country for the last 16 years, have been largely eradicated.
The new government contract promises several progressive measures that would have been unthinkable under a CDU-led government.
- The voting age will be lowered to 16
- A new citizenship law is to be introduced, which will make two crucial things easier for millions of immigrants already in Germany:
– Residents will be granted citizenship after as little as three years in the country, and
– They will be allowed to keep their prior nationalities upon naturalization.
* Next year the minimum wage will be raised to Euro 12 per hour from the current Euro 9.60 [Higher than Biden’s proposed US Dollar $ 12 per hour].
- An all-new Construction Ministry will build 400,000 new apartments per year to ease the rent crisis in several major German cities.
Gains of the Social Democrats
The winner of September’s election, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) can point to their overall power in the new government. Apart from Olaf Scholz as chancellor [prime minister], Social Democrats will take over six Cabinet posts, including Interior, Defence, Labour and Health.
The Social Democrats have taken up the crucial role of managing the basics of maintaining social cohesion.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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