Review of World Politics
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Considering current developments in the Himalayan Federal Democratic Republic [HFDR], we can expect or at least hope that an imminent implosion of the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) is at hand. At the least, the two opposing factions – the Prachanda-Makune and the Oligarchy – are at daggers drawn. The former sees its hopes in the restoration of the House of Representatives, the latter is going full steam ahead with preparations for the general election. It would be quite funny if the Election Commission refused to assign the coveted election symbol of the ‘Sun” to either faction. It would also be another sign of the death-knell of the Communist movement in Nepal.
Simultaneously, it would also be the demise of the term Loktantra, which should be precisely translated as the ‘new democracy’, but which has acquired a dubious meaning, connected as it is to the political developments after 2006. It is ‘democracy’ only in name, i.e. ‘fake democracy’.The participants then were willingly duped by the Indian establishment.
For a fresh start, we would have to revert back to the term Prajatantra. In this term, sovereignty rests genuinely with the people.
Our political pundits – academics, intellectuals, political commentators – missed a major development these last few weeks, and our major stakeholders failed miserably to make capital of it. However, the world’s leading newspaper The New York Times did follow this development.
Any major stakeholder would have taken the golden opportunity to highlight their patriotism and pinpoint their leadership bona fides. It just shows that leadership is in short supply in our country and that would be leaders do not have the proper, educated and experienced advisers to navigate the domestic Kathmandu Quagmire and also international affairs.
We are talking about the astounding feat of our mountaineers who scaled the treacherous K 2, the world’s second-highest mountain, but the most difficult, and that in the midst of winter – never done before.
This paper did honour this brave and perilous endeavor but the NYT put it better in perspective:
— “For Nepal: Climbers conquer a killer in winter”, January 29.
What those stakeholders who aspire to guide the country’s destiny completely failed to do was to honour these tremendously pioneering intrepid, daring, and audacious summiteers. They should have been invited in a small circle and venerated with ceremonial scarves and honoured profusely as was their due. The stakeholders were indeed derelict in their duty also vis-à-vis Nepalese society. Where was the head of government, or the head of state [or putative candidates for that matter?].
We must not forget that the first summiteers of Sagarmatha/Mount Everest – Tenzing Norgay Sherpa and Edmund Hillary – were treated differently. As the ascent was in honour of her coronation, Queen Elizabeth II knighted Hillary, but did not grant Tenzing anything, although it was a joint venture – not a magnanimous gesture!
This time around, what a poor performance by our would-be leaders!
The Pakistan Embassy in Kathmandu did host a reception in honour of the Nepali Winter K2 ascent team. This was attended by Ambassador-designate Syed Haider Shah, who presented souvenirs to the team’s leaders Nirmal Purja and Mingma Gyalje Sherpa.
The ascent team graciously thanked the Embassy of Pakistan for their support, appreciation and recognition of their success. They also recalled the warm and memorable reception from the leadership and people of Pakistan (my Republica, Jan. 30).
As already mentioned, nothing at all from their own home country. What a miserable showing!
Vaccine Nationalism: The West Hoarding Vaccines to the Detriment of the World
At the height of the Covid-19 pandemic last year and optimistic views about the development of new vaccines, the general view was quite uplifting: ‘no one is safe until everyone is safe in the world’. This has now changed dramatically – the rich nations of the West are all for themselves. They are even fighting turf wars – see the tug-of-war between the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK).
The terrible state of affairs has prompted the UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina J. Mohammed to warn that more needs to be done to distribute vaccines equitably. The end of the pandemic would not come until vaccines are available to the world’s vulnerable, and, therefore: “Vaccines must be available for everyone, everywhere” (DW/Deutsche Welle, Jan.29).
The brilliant Washington Post columnist Fareed Zakaria notes: “The richest countries have paid for hundreds of millions of Covid-19 vaccines doses, often far in excess of what they need. Canada, for example, has preordered enough to cover its 38 million residents five times over.
Zakaria further comments that this is a major problem. If the virus is to be eradicated, inoculation will need to be global. In certain countries like Israel [which has, however, ignored the Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip], the UAE, Britain, and the U.S., vaccination rollouts are encouraging, and an end to pandemic may [mistakenly] appear to be within reach.
But developing countries are not getting the vaccines they desperately need. The world is facing a long-term, simmering crisis of periodic outbreaks and new mutations emerging from places where herd immunity was never reached.
He concludes: “It is entirely understandable that rich countries want to vaccinate their own populations first. But there is a way to act rationally and sensibly, without hoarding vaccines, and to make policy that will ensure the disease is eradicated faster everywhere.
Germany’s leading weekly magazine Der Spiegel is even more devastating in its judgement over the stalled global vaccine drive. In a far-reaching opinion piece titled: “The West’s Greed Could Come Back to Haunt It”, it paints a dire picture of possible vaccination failure in the Third World: “A global initiative was launched to ensure that poorer countries would also have access to vaccines for the coronavirus once they were developed. Instead, the West is panic-buying the available stocks – and that could be devastating, politically, economically and in terms of human lives” (29.01.2021).
The Sino-American Rivalry: Two Would-Be Imperial Powers
Writing for the Atlantic Council and in Politico Magazine (shorter version), an unnamed writer, but identified as “a former senior government official with deep expertise and experience dealing with China” [therefore a China pundit or sinologist] has laid down the possible/virtual policy vis-à-vis a rising China.
The main thrust of Mr./Ms. ‘X’s argument/thesis/near-manifesto is that China is rapidly rising, and the US needs both a strategy and urgent help from allies because the Middle Kingdom will soon become an overwhelming superpower.
At the same time, Sinologists should note that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is not monolithic, and despite having put his personal stamp on the party and country, ‘X’ asserts that Xi Jinping does not command total support.
Furthermore, “The political reality is that the CCP is significantly divided on Xi’s leadership and his vast ambitions. Senior party members have been greatly troubled by Xi’s policy direction and angered by his endless demands for absolute loyalty.”
According to ‘X’ Washington needs to concentrate and play on its strengths and define its areas of potential cooperation with China – and then pursue “a full-fledged, global ideological battle in defense of societal freedoms against China’s authoritarian state-capitalist model” – all the while maintaining a more nuanced view of China’s internal politics.
‘X’’s astute and balanced argument has a great resemblance to those of former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd, who is currently chair of the Asia Society Policy Institute. His advantage over other sinologists is the fact that he is fluent in Mandarin and can follow developments in China firsthand.
Biden Administration Confronts Three Pacific Military Flashpoints
The incoming Biden Cabinet secretaries have made clear where his administration will stand on Chinese territorial claims in the Western Pacific.
“I think China is our most challenging, our most significant challenge going forward,” the new Defense Secretary Lloyd Austen told his confirmation hearing.
Austen further elaborated that the Defense Department would focus on convincing China, or any adversary, that taking on the US military would be “a very bad idea” (CNN, Jan. 29).
The three key military flashpoints between the two super-powers are:
- The South China Sea
China claims almost all of the 1.3 million square miles the South China Sea. Since 2014 it has built up tiny reefs and sandbars into man-made artificial islands, fortified with missiles, air-runways and weapons systems. In the process, it has antagonized other maritime states in the region with overlapping claims, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei.
Washington does not recognize those claims and regularly sends warships and military aircraft through the region. It also regularly holds drills with allies and partners.
China maintains that the presence of American warships raises tensions in the region and regards US naval patrols as tantamount to interference in its domestic affairs.
- Taiwan & the Taiwan Straits
The U.S. has remained a decades-long ally of Taiwan following the retreat of the nationalist Kuomintang to the island from the mainland after losing out to Mao’s Communists in the civil war.
China itself views the self-governing democracy of 24 million people as an inseparable part of its sovereign territory and has vowed to unify the island with the mainland.
The U.S. shows its support for Taipei by sending its warships of the 7th Fleet through the Taiwan Strait, the 180-kilometre wide body of water separating the island from the mainland.
- Japan & the East Asian Partnerships
The U.S. alliance with Japan is possibly its most important. Yokosuka, near Tokyo, is the headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet, which patrols the Indo-Pacific. The island of Okinawa nicknamed the “Keystone of the Pacific”, is home to key US combat assets.
The Japanese “Self Defence Forces” represent one of the world’s most modern and professional militaries. They train regularly with their American counterparts.
Part of that training is centered on defending some of Japan’s far-flung island possessions. The most high-profile is the Senkakus, an uninhabited rocky island chain, 1,900 kilometers southwest of Tokyo.
However, China also claims sovereignty over them, calling them the Diaoyus. It attempts to assert those claims by deploying coast guard vessels to waters surrounding the islands.
Like Japan, the U.S. also has a mutual defence treaty with the Philippines. This is part of the web of alliances and partners Washington has established around the Indo-Pacific – including with Australia, India and Vietnam.
The U.S., Japanese and Philippine forces have conducted joint exercises, and the Philippines last year became Japan’s first military export customer, signing a deal to buy advanced air surveillance radars.
Myanmar: The Military Strikes Again
In the early hours of Monday, Myanmar’s unscrupulous army seized power again in an almost expected coup d’etat. The de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the state president and members of her political party were summarily detained. The junta declared a state of emergency for at least one year, signaling an abrupt end to the South/South East Asian nation’s nascent democratic experiment (ABC News, Feb. 1).
Power has now been handed over to the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. The military also previously ruled this nation sandwiched between South and South-East Asia, also known as Burma, for nearly five decades before appearing to slowly transition to democratic rule a decade ago and holding its first general elections in the years 2015 and again this past November.
The military-owned Myawaddy TV cited fraud in the country’s elections last November, in which Suu Kyi’s party National League for Democracy (NLD) won in a landslide.
Nobel Peace Prize laureate Suu Kyi is still revered in her country although she has lost her international reputation for her adamant refusal to acknowledge the Myanmar army’s atrocities against the Rohingya Muslim minority – actually genocide.
Suu Kyi had a shared power agreement with the military since she came to power in 2015, offering the government a façade of democratic legitimacy as they embarked on a decade of reforms. This has now come to an abrupt end, as has the period of ‘cohabitation’.
Myanmar historian and celebrated writer Thant Myin-U [his maternal grandfather U Thant was the UN Secretary-General in the 1960s] warned of an ominous future: “The doors just opened to a very different future. I have a sinking feeling that no one will really be able to control what comes next. And remember Myanmar’s a country awash in weapons, with deep divisions across ethnic and religious lines, where millions can barely feed themselves.”
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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