Review of International Affairs: August 2020 III
- Belarus: Beginning of the End of Europe’s Last Dictator
- Palestinians Betrayed: US-Israel-UAE Tripartite Collusion
- Thailand’s Military & Monarchy under Duress
- Trump Flummoxed: Kamala Harris as VP-Candidate
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Turmoil in Putin’s Front Yard
Belarus [once referred to as White Russia] is a land-locked East European country surrounded by [clockwise]: Russia (in the north and west), Ukraine (in the south), Poland (in the west), Lithuania and Latvia, both European Union members (in the north-west. Its nearest access to the sea is through the last two countries to the Baltic Sea northwestwards. It emerged after the Treaty of Riga, 1921 as the Soviet Socialist Republic of Belorussia and joined the Soviet Union.
Its land area is 83rd in the world and its population of 9.7 million 86th. Even during the time of the Soviet empire, Belarus like Ukraine (both constituent republics of the USSR), were ‘independent’ members of the United Nations!
Last week Sunday, Aleksandr Lukashenko, known as “Europe’s last dictator”, who has been ruling in an authoritarian manner for the last 26 years, claimed his sixth consecutive victory in the marred presidential election. After winning his third term in 2006, he had openly conceded: “Yes, we falsified the last election” (NYT/New York Times). This time around, he claimed more than 80 percent of the vote!
Former Belarusian diplomat Andrei Sannikov said: “He has been falsifying elections for decades”, but this year was different because people now [finally] saw Lukashenko in a new light. His nonchalant response to the coronavirus pandemic, which left Belarus with one of Europe’s highest per capita infection rates, “shattered Mr Lukashenko’s ability to impose his own alternative reality” commented MarynaRakhlia at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, adding: “This was the straw that broke the camel’s back” (NYT).
Belarus has been forced to release hundreds of detained demonstrators who took to the streets following the disputed presidential election result. Many were not only mistreated but also tortured. The move came after intense pressure from the European Union/EU (DW/Deutsche Welle, August 14).
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen has demanded sanctions against the responsible persons in Belarus.
The EU foreign ministers are discussing the situation in the country.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said she is deeply shocked by the extent of the detainees’ mishandling and demanded their immediate and unconditional release.
Lukashenko claims his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin has offered full assistance to “help ensure security”. At the same time, in an attitude of contradictory bravado, the embattled dictator had vowed to solve his country’s acute political crisis singlehandedly, rejecting any foreign mediation.
Isolated from the political West and swamped by mass protests, Belarus has made repeated calls for Putin to intervene and save the brutal 26-year-old regime.
Lukashenko said that Lithuania, Latvia, Poland and “our” native Ukraine are ordering us to hold new elections: “If we follow their lead—we will go into a tailspin – we will perish as a people, as a state, as a nation” (The Guardian, August 17).
In a last ditch effort to save himself and his regime, he has promised a referendum, but the people have already recognized this for what it actually is – delaying tactics.
Dmitry Suslov, the professor and foreign affairs expert at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics, put it succinctly: “Now it is clear that Lukashenko’s era is over, and I think that’s clear for everyone in Moscow, including the Kremlin.”
There is no way that Putin can exploit the situation as he did in Ukraine’s Crimea in 2014. Russian armed intervention in Belarus could very well backfire, turning a protest against Lukashenko into one against Putin himself.
U.S., Israel and the UAE Collude to Betray the Palestine Cause
Both Iran and Turkey — at opposite ends of the political spectrum and with burning ambitions of being regional great powers – lashed out at their regional rival the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last Friday over its decision to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel in a US-brokered deal, betraying the Palestinian cause (AP/Associated Press, August 14).
Iran’s Foreign Ministry called the deal a “dagger that was unjustly struck by the UAE in the backs of the Palestinian people and all Muslims.”
Turkey said the peoples of the region “will never forget and never forgive this hypocritical behaviour” by the UAE.
The UAE which has never fought Israel and has been improving bilateral relations for years – the Middle East’s best-known secret! – has argued the agreement put a hold [but not completely abandoned] Israel’s plan to annex parts of the occupied West Bank [especially the Jordan Valley], which the Palestinians view as the sovereign heartland of their future state.
However, the Turkish foreign ministry said the UAE [for that matter also the U.S.} had no authority to negotiate with Israel on behalf of the Palestinians or “to make concessions on matters vital to Palestine.”
The Palestinians are definitely a nation, but still without a state, an entity existing with spatial boundaries – with the exception of the Gaza Strip. But they do already have government authority in the form of the Palestine Authority.
The agreement makes the UAE the first [Persian] Gulf Arab state – and the third Arab country after Egypt and Jordan – to have full diplomatic relations with Israel. However, the Palestinians say the deal amounts to “treason” and have called on Arab and Muslim countries to oppose it.
The deal may have been long in the making and the Trump administration’s hand in it is evident, especially that of his son-in-law Jared Kushner [who doesn’t have the faintest idea about the Middle East, discounting his close relations with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman/’MBS’]. By no stretch of the imagination can it be labelled ‘historic’, and it is unlikely to influence the US presidential election either way.
The Sunni majority countries in the Gulf region do have some shared concerns about arch-enemy Iran which is Shia, but the deal does not reflect the changing Middle East.
The traditional Arab support for Palestine remains intact. Trump has predicted that other countries in the region will follow the UAE’s lead, but he is quite off the mark. Which country? Like the UAE, even Saudi Arabia, the major Sunni power in the world, has comprehensive trade relations with Israel, which are also hardly secret, but the all-powerful, crafty and murderous MBS will observe how things work out, but not take the plunge.
Turkey has had diplomatic relations with Israel for decades, but under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has positioned itself as a champion of the Palestinians. It also finds itself in a triangular competition with Iran and Saudi Arabia for supremacy in the larger Middle East/West Asia and North Africa. Turkey and the UAE also support rival camps in the conflict in Libya.
Egypt which would normally be a major player in these developments is now largely a mute spectator because of its intense domestic debility.
Symptomatic for the UAE’s scheming role is the fact that the corrupt and philandering former king of Spain sought and was given refuge there.
Thais Demand Comprehensive Changes
Last Sunday, more than 10,000 people joined the biggest pro-democracy protest in Bangkok since the 2014 military coup to demand that the government step down and introduce a new constitution for fresh elections (Reuters, August 16).
Some protesters are also pushing for reforms to the monarchy a taboo subject in highly monarchical Thailand, which considers its kings god-like.
King Maha Vajiralongkorn, the philandering and wanton son of the truly great and highly revered BhumibolAdulyadej [of the Chakri Dynasty title Rama IX] has been mostly absent from his native country during the highly contagious coronavirus pandemic.
He has been taking a respite from the extraordinary rigours of his august office with his bevvy of buxom wives and concubines at his ritzy second home in Germany on the shores of Lake Starnberg – with scintillating views of the Bavarian Alps. He is also a short drive away from another charming lake – Ammersee with the nearby monastery of Andechs, where the monks brew superb beer, probably second to none. If the pleasure-loving, royal epicure seeks something stronger, he has not far to go to still another nearby lake ofSchliersee, where hardy, but competent entrepreneurs have created an exclusive Bavarian Scotch.
Kamala Harris, the Rising Democratic Star
It would be too much to expect Trump, whose sense of reasoning is downright putrid, to appreciate the symbolism of the South Asian name “Kamala”. Its Sanskrit origin reflects the supreme respect Hindus and Buddhists have for the Lotus flower, its synonym being “Padma”.
For Hindus, symbolically the Lotus bursts forth from Mother Earth, through the Primeval Ocean into the all-encompassing Atmosphere. It also carries Laxmi, the Goddess of Wealth & Prosperity.
For Buddhists, the Adi or primaeval Buddha manifested himself through this holiest of flowers:
“Om Mani Padme Hum”
Oh You Jewel in the Lotus
The bard may claim:
“What’s in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other Name would smell as sweet.”
[Romeo and Juliet]
In this case, the exception proves the rule, and Kamala is destined to make history!
It seems that Trump and his re-election campaign were completely flummoxed by Joe Biden’s choice of Senator Kamala Harris of California as his vice-presidential running mate.
Consequently, instead of a well-crafted reaction, the moment Biden made the announcement, Trump and his campaign have been tying themselves in knots.
According to Frida Ghitis, the noted world affairs columnist: “The news has thrown Trump visibly off-balance, and sent his campaign flailing just as badly. Even his chorus of cheerleaders at Fox News [or “Trump News”] is having trouble deciding what to make of Harris – further evidence of what a smart decision Biden made” (CNN, August 14).
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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