India’s micro managers will by now have realized that relations with Nepal are at an all time low. They cannot but realize, given the extent of micro-management, that Nepal’s national capability too is at an all time low. After all they have induced the decline. The flip side of this is that they wouldn’t be blind too of the fact that national awareness in Nepal is at an all-time high. The growing gap between national performance and national awareness is itself an indication of a major upheaval in the country awaiting a spark. What scheme of things our politics has in mind is itself a portion of that spark. The media is replete with the consequences of the delay in the much anticipated cabinet change. Whether it is awaiting constitutional formalities or whether the delay too is induced keeps everybody guessing. This is as much a sign of uncertainty as it it is of the malaise that keeps the system from performing. And now it is a question of Prime Minister Oli’s health. As very carefully worded medical statements pronounce, our doctors say they are capable of conducting the now necessary kidney change but may not take that onerous responsibility in the presence of less controversial alternatives. This means that, given the urgency induced by frequent dialysis, PM Oli will soon be traveling abroad for medical treatment. Knowing Oli, he will have made arrangements for the ship of state to continue its course. It is this course that is put to question. The streets continue to resound with this or that opposition in search of a spark seemingly. And an Indian map has given excuse for daily lambasting of Indian expansionism. This is accompanied by continuous media discussion on possible government alternatives and so much public opinion is being aroused that experts are spilling their cards much before even the preliminaries for bilateral discussions have been brought to light. To add to the confusion Oli has himself declared that he will remove the Indian military base from Kalapani.
Such is the lack of public trust in government and politicians that all this talk is being accounted to cheap election stunts while the awareness on border encroachment has been extended to allegations of Chinese encroachment as well. It is another matter that the Chinese have denied this. But the fact is that the Sino-Indian agreement on Lipu Lekh as a trade route appears already to have tri-lateralized a bi-lateral issue. The concern and awareness that the border issue is not going to take a back seat as on previous occasions is also raising questions as to the design. Even more so, perhaps, is the possibility of extra-regional designers facilitating room for more grounds for conflict on what is essentially a longstanding border dispute. It is these possibilities that heighten the public anticipation for change. A non-performing government seemingly oblivious of a pressing environment in doubly dangerous and, as the awareness of thi rises, the players mount. The uncertainty threatens also on account of the increased awareness that national performance is diminishing throughout.
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