By Nirmal P. Acharya
US President Donald Trump has been announcing since last year that he would visit China. However, it was not until May 11 that the Chinese government officially announced the invitation for President Trump to visit from May 13 to 15.
The long-held view is that Nepal is a country sandwiched between the two major powers–China and India. In my opinion, Nepal is more of a country caught between China and the United States. As a result, after a long period of political struggle, Nepal has chosen the American-style political system rather than the Chinese socialist path. Therefore, we should be very interested in observing the process of the China-US game.
In contrast to the calmness of the Chinese authorities towards President Trump’s visit, the “high-profile continuous pre-preparation” by the US side was quite different. Among the Chinese public, the reception to President Trump’s visit was even more indifferent, as if it were a matter of “whether to come or not”. This indeed reflects the profound changes in the Sino-US relationship and the mindset of both sides’ people. Behind this, it is the reconstruction of the national mindset brought about by the enhancement of China’s comprehensive national strength.
From “Looking Up” to “Looking Straight Ahead”: The Deep Changes in Chinese Social Attitudes.
Compared with the almost “boiling” enthusiasm of the domestic internet during Trump’s first visit to China in 2017, the reaction of the Chinese people this time was indeed rather calm. This was the result of multiple factors combined.
The economic and technological landscape has changed: Over the past eight years, the script of the competition between the Chinese and American industrial chains has been rewritten. The United States, which was once the “only option”, has now become “one of the important options”. At the same time, the technological blockades imposed by the United States have accelerated China’s independent innovation process in areas such as chips and operating systems. When external threats can be effectively addressed, the sense of dependence and anticipation naturally decreases. · “Standing on an equal footing with the world”: China’s economic output, calculated by purchasing power parity, has ranked first in the world, and it has the most complete industrial system. More importantly, a survey by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences shows that over 67% of Chinese respondents believe that the United States is no longer the sole superpower, and the proportion of those who believe that China and the United States are “on par in terms of strength” is as high as 58.3%.
The exhaustion from “inconsistent words and deeds” towards the United States: Many people lament that “now I don’t believe a single word from the United States.” “I turn against them as soon as I board the plane.” This mentality stems from repeated confirmation of the frequent failure to fulfill promises and the frequent policy shifts by the US side in the past, leading to widespread distrust of the US’s diplomatic commitments.
From “Arrogance” to “Seeking Stability”: The Pragmatic Shift Under the US Strategic Anxiety.
The “modest” stance of China, both at the official and public levels, is also based on the backdrop of the US strategic changes. When China announced it, it was merely a routine public release, while the US was the main driving force behind this visit.
Calm mindset: The “zero-sum game” mentality within the US is rationally shifting towards “coexistence and symbiosis”. As early as this year, the US’s new defense strategy report even removed the wording that regarded China as the “number one security threat”.
Actual demands:
Economic and trade pressure: Imposing tariffs on China has proven to be counterproductive. It not only pushed up inflation in the United States but also harmed the interests of American enterprises.
Geopolitical predicament: The military conflicts in the Middle East have greatly depleted the US national strength. Members of the US Senate’s military committee stated outright that the war in Iran has severely weakened their situation. This visit to China is “seeking Chinese assistance” rather than “making demands in a condescending manner”.
Future Outlook: A New Phase of Controllable Competition and Pragmatic Cooperation
This visit marks a shift in China‑US relations from all‑round contention to a new phase that is more pragmatic, more operational yet still fraught with challenges. The trajectory of bilateral ties in the period ahead will feature the following characteristics:
Overall Trend: Stabilized Relations Enter a New Normal of “Risk Management and Competition”
China‑US relations will transition from a tense, high‑pressure state to a relatively stable phase marked by refined contention. Analysts generally agree that bilateral relations are expected to operate under the framework of controllable competition, priority on cooperation, and dispute management. The strategic guiding role of head‑of‑state diplomacy will become more prominent, with the primary goals of establishing regular communication mechanisms and setting red lines for risks.
Key Agenda: Three Core Issues Shaping the Contention Landscape
Core topics of the talks will revolve around the areas below, along which future trends will unfold:
1. Taiwan Question: As the “top red line”, efforts are expected to advance the establishment of a crisis hotline for the Taiwan Strait to prevent escalation stemming from miscalculation.
2. Economic and Trade Contention: Serving as a “ballast stone”, discussions will focus on removing certain unreasonable tariffs and resuming regular economic and trade dialogue mechanisms. The US has a stronger need for China’s cooperation to ease inflationary pressures.
3. Technological Competition: As a central focus, comprehensive détente is unlikely. Nevertheless, a communication mechanism on tech security will be put in place to pursue cooperation in limited areas such as AI safety and climate technology, so as to avoid vicious confrontation.
Concerns and Challenges: Path Dependence and the Risk of “Changing Attitudes”.
It is essential to recognize clearly that the structural contradictions between the two countries will persist for a long time. The underlying strategy of the United States to “contain China’s development” will not fundamentally change due to a single visit. A worrying potential risk is that the decision-making style of the Trump administration in diplomacy, which is prone to “changing one’s mind at will”, may cause even if the two sides have achieved initial results, there could still be repeated situations where the agreement made before boarding the plane changes upon landing due to domestic political shifts in the United States (such as pressure from midterm elections), adding tremendous uncertainty to the predictability of the bilateral relationship.
In conclusion, the “calmness” of the Chinese people represents a significant turning point, reflecting the profound transformation of Chinese society after experiencing the competition among major powers, from collective expectations to a mature mindset, and finally to a perspective of equal standing with the world. Meanwhile, the Sino-US relationship will enter a new cycle of instability, where the old consensus has been broken, new consensus is being formed, and cooperation and competition coexist.
At this point, as a relatively insignificant person, I would like to say a very important statement: The outcome of the competition between China and the United States will indeed have a significant impact on the future direction of Nepalese society.
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