* The State of Putin’s Ukraine War
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Steps Toward Ukrainian Victory & Lasting Peace With Russia
Arseniy Yatsenyuk, former prime minister of Ukraine (2014-16) and currently Chairman of the Kyiv Security Forum has enunciated the essential steps toward a Ukrainian victory and a lasting peace with Russia.
A few years back, against the backdrop of a national pro-democracy uprising in Belarus (north of Ukraine), Yatsenyuk had called on European leaders to develop a clear strategy for Eastern Europe.
This envisaged European Union (EU) and NATO membership for Ukraine, Moldova (sandwiched between Romania and the west of Ukraine), Georgia, and a free Belarus.
This was totally ignored by the European politicians who can only think short-term.
Yatsenyuk argues plausibly that by failing to integrate Ukraine and bring the countries of Eastern Europe out of the geopolitical gray zone, Western leaders set the stage for the full-scale Russian invasion of 2022 (Atlantic Council/UkraineAlert, June 30).
Further mistakes by Western leaders will be just as costly.
However, there is now a growing consensus throughout the West – with the exception of Hungary – that only Ukrainian victory can end the global security crisis sparked by Russia’s unprovoked invasion.
Nevertheless, greater clarity is required on what would constitute Ukrainian victory and how Europe can achieve lasting peace.
Yatsenyuk outlines five key elements to a sustainable peace settlement:
- Arming Ukraine Sufficiently Well for Victory
This process is well underway, but serious issues remain in terms of superior types, quantities and timing.
Ukraine’s Western partners must overcome their misplaced fear of provoking Vladimir Putin and should instead streamline the prompt delivery of weapons – including sophisticated ones.
- The Strategic Deterrence of Russia & the Creation of a New NATO-Centred Security Architecture in Europe
There should now be no misapprehensions that NATO alone can provide Europe with a credible and efficient security system.
And nothing less than NATO membership for Ukraine will force Moscow to retreat.
The upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania should conclude by inviting Ukraine to join the military alliance.
- Ukraine’s Membership in the European Union (EU)
This would mean the restoration of the Ukrainian economy in close collaboration with the wider European economy.
There has been significant progress toward this objective since the outbreak of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
However, overall results remain disappointing and fall far short of the many political statements on the importance of Ukraine’s European integration.
- Diminish Russia’s Potential to Act Aggressively
It is difficult to assess how long Russia will remain capable of waging the current war, but financial issues will play an important role.
Last year, official Russian military expenditure (most likely less than the actual amount) amounted to a staggering US $ Dollar 85 billion.
This year, the figure is set to reach at least US $ Dollar 108 billion.
[What a stupendous amount spent for one person’s vanity!)].
Clearly, sanctions must continue and need to intensify.
Additional steps could include4 the prevention of dual-purpose goods transiting through Russia, and the maximum implementation of secondary sanctions.
- Ensuring that Russian Neo-Imperialism is No Longer a Threat to the Region as a Whole
Russia must bear full legal and financial responsibility for its aggression against Ukraine and for the genocide of the Ukrainian people.
The era of Russian impunity for war crimes must end.
World Peace will remain elusive until Russian neo-imperialism is consigned to the dustbin of history!
Fallout From Russian Wagner Group’s Short-Lived Revolt
Impact of Prigozhin’s Attempted Putsch
As the Wagner mutiny unfolded over the weekend, millions of Ukrainians naturally settled down to enjoy the spectacle.
- Ukrainians Have Good Reasons to Cheer Russia’s Wagner Revolt
This gleeful reaction was perhaps predictable, given the unimaginable horror and suffering Russia has brought to Ukraine over the past 16 months.
But there may also be a number of good practical reasons for Ukrainians to cheer Prigozhin’s short-lived revolt.
The drama is likely to continue according to Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine’s former defence minister (2019-2020).
Putin does not honour agreements.
He is also notorious for never forgiving those he perceives as ‘traitors’.
We will almost certainly witness the end of the Wagner Group as an independent military force.
Individual units will either be broken up, exiled to Belarus, or
integrated into the regular Russian army.
Putin and his military chiefs simply cannot run the risk of allowing the mercenary group to maintain its powerful military potential.
This will have a considerable impact on the invasion of Ukraine.
Wagner troops were responsible for virtually all of Russia’s modest advances over the past year, including the much-hyped seizure of Bakhmut.
The removal of Wagner fighters from prominent offensive roles will definitely undermine the Russian military’s already extremely limited ability to advance in Ukraine’s battlefields.
- Wagner Mutiny Drags Belarus Deeper into Russia’s Wartime Turbulence
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko appears eager to take full credit for his role in countering Russia’s short-lived but hugely significant Wagner rebellion, according to Belarus-journalist Hanna Liubakova.
Speaking on June 27 just days after the uprising came to an abrupt end, Lukashenko provided a detailed and highly flattering account of negotiations with Wagner leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin that contrasted his own strong leadership with Russian ruler Vladimir Putin’s apparent indecisiveness.
Lukashenko has been heavily dependent on the Kremlin for his political survival ever since Russia intervened to prop up his regime during a wave of Belarusian pro-democracy protests in the second half of 2020.
He is more likely to have served as a messenger for Putin.
There is no denying the perceptions of Belarus as a vassal state of Russia that serves as a place of exile for disgraced members of the Kremlin elite.
- Putin’s Wagner Weakness is a Signal to Support Ukraine’s Ongoing Counter-Offensive
Taras Kuzio, professor of political science at the National University of Kyiv, is of the opinion that the Wagner mutiny may have been a short-lived affair, but it has nevertheless succeeded in exploding the myth of Vladimir Putin as a formidable political strongman who will go to extremes to achieve his goals.
In reality, Putin’s failure to punish mutinous troops and a ‘traitorous ally’ who seized a major Russian city, marched on Moscow and shot down military planes has revealed him as a weak leader who is more inclined to capitulate than escalate.
- Wagner Warlord Undermined the Kremlin’s Case for Invading Ukraine
In the June 23 video released on one of Prigozhin’s Telegram channels the morning he launched his mutiny, the Wagner founder undermined core false narratives Putin used to justify launching his war of aggression against Ukraine, according to Nika Aleksejeva (research fellow) and Ani Mejlumyan (research assistant) of the Atlantic Council.
Prigozhin’s remarks serve as evidence of how Putin attempted to deceive domestic audiences and the international community.
In the 30-minute video, Prigozhin also criticized Russian military leadership under Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gennady Gerasimov, castigating the reasons given to justify the war and dismissing them as false.
In challenging core pre-war Kremlin narratives, Prigozhin simultaneously undermined multiple arguments cited directly by Putin during his public address on February 24, 2022, when he announced the start of the invasion.
Expert Opinion
What’s Next for Russia
“What will follow this rebellion is an interlude of distraction, recrimination, and uncertainty, as Putin deals not only with the logistics of getting things back to normal but also with the humiliation he has just been dealt and the revenge he is likely to pursue,” Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage write for Foreign Affairs.
Fix, Kimmage and others also agree on something else: If Putin were to lose power, whoever succeeded him might be more aggressive and hyper-nationalistic even than Putin.
In another Foreign Affairs essay, Vladislav Zubok adds grimly, that “in harking back to 1917” – the year of the Bolshevik Revolution, cited by Putin in his speech condemning Prigozhin’s march toward Moscow – “Putin and his critics and adversaries alike were reaching for the wrong historical analogy. What is taking place in Russia right now bears less remembrance to the events of 1917 than to those of an earlier era: the so-called Time of Troubles, or Smuta, which lasted from 1604 to 1613. During this period, the Russian dynasty of the Rurikids came to a violent end, and it took a decade of war and civil upheaval before the Romanov dynasty consolidated monarchical authority. In the meantime, Russia almost ceased to exist as a sovereign entity – a fate that could befall Russia again today because Putin’s personalized autocratic rule has made it hard to imagine an orderly succession.”
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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