- Has Nepal Reached the Tipping Point?
- S. Debt Ceiling Crisis & International Repercussions
- Sudan Conflict & External Implications
- Turkey’s Election: The Most Important of 2023
- Putin’s Ukraine War: Make or Break?
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal on the Brink
Currently, Nepal does exude a sense of calm. But is it the stillness before the storm?
Social media is full of the inequities and malfeasance of the entire political class and their hangers-on.
Rampant endemic corruption seems to be the very way of life of all politicians.
There is deep disgust among the common people and demand for change. At the same time, there is utter helplessness – the feeling that they can do nothing – as if they are crying in the wilderness and no one is listening.
The whole political edifice seems to be shaky – rotten to the core. All the three branches of government – executive, legislature and judiciary – are dishonest, unscrupulous, unprincipled and fraudulent.
And the bureaucracy whether at the centre, state or district levels is no iota better.
Nothing is done – no one lifts his little finger – until and unless some money changes hands. The bigger the job, the larger the largesse.
Becoming a minister has become synonymous with being appointed to a fabulous job.
Pilfering ministers and officials at various levels means that good governance becomes a major victim.
And then broadly, vital national interests are impacted detrimentally.
This is of no interest to the venal politicians and officials. The only thing that counts is that their pockets are lined!
The government has not been able to get a handle on re-charging the economy. Ordinary people are suffering from the rising costs of living. Small businesses are at their wits’ end. Many cannot even afford basic health services – let alone expensive operations and physicians’ fees [pharmacies have become the go-to places for medical advice].
Quality education has become unaffordable. Rural areas are badly disadvantaged. Higher education is the domain of the privileged and moneyed classes.
The country has become a veritable quagmire of fraud and double-dealing, of bungling and unproductivity, of ineptitude and incompetence.
Various scandals – whichever political party is in power – is the order of the day.
These have been very damaging to Nepal’s global image – but the country’s self-serving politicians are least bothered.
Even glowing supporters of the present political dispensation are having second thoughts. Perhaps the federal system is not suited to the country, and it is way too expensive to maintain.
In the general and by-elections elections, the people showed their intense dissatisfaction by supporting emergent parties.
However, it may be too little, too late. A political wag once said ‘a people get the government they deserve.’ Some even say that the Nepalese are ‘sheep, in sheep’s clothing’ – lacking pride by meekly following such bungling and inferior so-called leaders!
However, the prominent Swedish writer Malcom Kyeyune has noted [presciently?] : “the single most dangerous period for a political system is when it has ignored a looming crisis for years and decades, and then finally, backs snugly perched against a wall that cannot be moved, tries to apply wide-ranging reforms.”
It is in such a situation that political revolutions are most liable
The French Revolution comes to mind, as well as the fall of the Qing dynasty in China, or the collapse of the Soviet Union.
It can be argued that the raging war in Ukraine has its origin in a similar situation. [It has now morphed into the cause celebre of the defenders of the US-led world order].
The Maidan Revolution in Ukraine occurred in large part because the politically bankrupt Yanukovych regime tried and failed to save the country’s economy. It was described in 2014 by the Washington Post as “a legacy of 23 years of incompetent economic management.”
Sounds familiar? What have the two Jana Andolan (People’s Movements) actually achieved in Nepal?
The transition from constitutional monarchy to a Himalayan Republic has not moved the needle much.
Supreme Drama of the U.S. Debt Crisis
In a New York Times op-ed, the brilliant Economics Nobel Laureate, Professor Paul Krugman has warned that the United States is “barreling toward a debt crisis; the possibility of default on U.S. debt is already beginning to roil markets” (May 6-7).
The odd thing about this potential crisis is that it has nothing to do with excessive debt!
The fact is that the looming crisis will be entirely self-inflicted.
Krugman insists that it will be Republican-inflicted.
The Republican Party controls the House of Representatives [lower house] and is refusing to raise the debt ceiling.
This is actually an oddity/peculiarity of the US budget process that allows Congress [the legislature] prevent the government [executive] from making payments that have already been approved through past legislation!
Krugman cites three relevant elements of the looming crisis:
- Budget decisions should be dictated by votes over spending and taxing, not by hostage-taking in which the party most willing to destroy the economy gets what it wants.
- If the politics of extortion do lead to a debt default, the consequences will be catastrophic.
- There is no economic downside to the various ways the Biden administration might seek to bypass Republican extortion and continue normal governance.
Congress passes bills that set tax rates and determine spending, which become law when the president signs them.
However, much of the time the legislated spending exceeds revenue, so the government must borrow to cover the difference.
If Congress refuses to authorize that borrowing, i.e., refuses to raise the debt ceiling, this would amount to preventing the president from making payments Congress has already mandated.
Krugman compares this situation to someone ordering furniture, taking delivery, and then refusing to pay the bill!
This would be “hugely destructive.”
What is at Stake
A protracted default could cost:
- 8 million jobs as a result of shocks to consumer and business confidence;
- Increased interest rates on U.S. debt, which investors would no longer consider safe;
- Drastic forced cuts in government spending.
More significantly, US Treasury bills, which play a crucial role as collateral in many financial transactions, would be made deliberately unsafe and “the whole global financial system could freeze up.”
The top-notch Economics professor vehemently opposes giving in to the Republicans extortionist and unrealistic demands.
The Solution
He proposes an elegant and uncomplicated way forward. Biden should: “simply declare that he must implement duly enacted fiscal legislation and that a debt ceiling that prevents him from doing so is unconstitutional.”
Since the debt-limit was never intended to provide a mechanism for extortion, Biden could also feel free to apply certain “gimmicks” at his disposal:
- Issuing premium bonds;
- Minting a trillion dollar platinum coin.
Krugman is adamant that the guiding rule should be to do whatever it takes to get through this manufactured crisis.
Unfortunately, domestic political unity has eroded over the past few years.
And America’s socio-political and economic system is no longer working. There are serious doubts that it can be reformed.
It is incomprehensible to the world at large that America is incapable of enacting sensible gun laws, and politicians keep tolerating ordinary people being brutally massacred.
The Republicans in particular – like the self-satisfied governor of Texas – are utterly bereft of the pre-eminent virtue of compassion [ and without it, supremely unfit for public office! ].
Biden should be rather concentrating on healing America domestically, than on insisting hot-headedly on another presidential term.
This will be his cardinal mistake in the domestic arena; in foreign affairs, it was the avoidable, but terribly gone wrong Afghanistan fiasco.
Everyone Should Care About Sudan
The flare-up of violence after Sudan’s two most powerful generals fell out with each other for no other reason than humongous ambition and unmitigated greed has led to hope for a permanent cessation of hostilities and the establishment of civilian rule, once and for all.
Human suffering is reason enough to follow developments closely in Sudan [as is also the case in Ukraine, Myanmar and other international hot-spots].
Observers have noted some more-self-interested motivations for people in other countries to track Sudan’s return to civil war.
The Economist of London has warned about the potential for massive refugee outflows – the UN is bracing for as many as 800,000 people to flee the country.
There is also the acute danger and prospect for neighbouring and even world powers being drawn into the conflict.
Sydney’s Lowy Institute is even more despairing: clear and present danger specifically to neighbouring and relatively unstable South Sudan.
In addition, there is the possibility of heightened international gold smuggling, as war could incentivize illegal diversions in Sudan’s gold-mining sector.
There could also be a lost opportunity in global wheat production, as war would interrupt an African Development Bank plan to grow more wheat in Sudan, intended to alleviate high prices and still-recovering in light of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Political analysts suggest that a long-term solution of the Sudan conflict requires resolute action from the international community:
- Eliminating the two military vagabonds as soon as possible;
- Terminating the malign influence and interference of regional actors – Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Libya;
- A robust military UN Peace-Keeping presence;
- Strengthening the role of civilian groups and civil society.
World’s Most Important Election in 2023
The Washington Post’s star columnist and CNN’s astute presenter of the Global Public Square show Sundays, Fareed Zakaria has declared Turkey’s parliamentary-cum-presidential election debatably the most important election in the world this year (CNN/Fareed’s Global Briefing, May 5).
On May 15, authoritarian-leaning President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will compete against challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of an established party and now head of an opposition coalition of six parties.
In the wake of Turkey’s devastating earthquakes in February of this year, Erdogan’s reelection prospect had begun to look shaky.
The earthquakes in the south-eastern part of the country revealed an unprepared emergency-response agency and the deadly risk of having dodged building regulations as Turkish construction boomed.
Erdogan has managed to reverse the trend, according to Soner Cagaptay, writing in Foreign Affairs: “Using his broad influence over Turkish media, Erdogan has effectively limited public debate of the earthquake, shifting the domestic discussion to Turkey’s industrial and military achievements under him.”
He is using all the tricks of the trade, Cagaptay adds: “Meanwhile, a third-party candidate has entered the race, providing Erdogan with additional means to fracture the opposition.”
In addition: “a government reform to the way Parliament apportions seats could give the president’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) a considerable advantage in the coming vote. As the May 14 election approaches, it now seems likely that Erdogan may at least be able to force a runoff and that the AKP and its coalition partners might even hold the majority in Parliament.”
Repercussions
The Economist has endorsed Kilicdaroglu: “The election is on a knife-edge. Were Erdogan to lose, it would be a stunning political reversal with global consequences.”
Consequently: “The Turkish people would be more free, less fearful and – in time – more prosperous.”
In the international arena: “A new government would repair battered relations with the West.”
Most importantly according to the respected news magazine: “in an era when strongman rule is on the rise, from Hungary to India [besides Orban and Modi, also Xi and Putin], the peaceful ejection of Mr Erdogan would show democrats everywhere that strongmen can be beaten.”
Putin’s Ukraine War: Decisive Moment
It is indeed ironic, but ahead of Victory Day over Nazi Germany in WW II, Russia launched dozens of Iranian-made kamikaze drones against ‘Nazi Ukraine’.
‘Unfortunately’, Kyiv air defences successfully shot down every attack drone.
New Twist: Drone Attack on Putin & Kremlin?
In a bizarre incident, Russia audaciously claimed that two drones attacked the Kremlin late at night.
It was most suspicious that the Russian government wanted the whole world to know about this ‘despicable’ incident very quickly.
The Kremlin published an unusual, five-paragraph statement on its website that named the Ukrainian government as the perpetrator and asserted the right to retaliate against Kyiv.
The chairman of Russia’s lower house of parliament warned ominously: “We will demand the use of weapons capable of stopping and destroying the Kyiv terrorist regime.”
However, the supreme irony of publicizing the alleged attack seems to have been lost on the members of Putin’s regime.
After all, there was no evidence of serious damage.
How were two unmanned aircraft able to penetrate central Moscow’s stringent defences and approach the Kremlin?
Was this not the latest embarrassment for the Russian military and secret services?
The drone incident definitely comes at a particularly tense moment in Russia’s nearly 15-month war [sorry: rather special military operation].
It is common knowledge that Ukraine is gearing up for a decisive counter-offensive against entrenched Russian troops in Ukraine’s east and south.
A Russian Hoax?
Most experts are united in their assessment that the drone incident can only be a subterfuge/smokescreen/ploy. It is an attempt to muddy the waters.
Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations is convinced that the drone “attack” on Putin and the Kremlin is nothing more and nothing less than a Russian false flag operation.
It is primarily intended to provide justification for new missile strikes on Ukraine’s leadership, government buildings, essential physical infrastructure in Kyiv and other cities.
Russia is also driven by a desire to shore up dwindling support among the Russian population ahead of what could turn out to be a punishing counteroffensive.
The Russian attempt was “crude and clumsy” and convinced few. However, it will feed into the regime’s narrative of Russia as a victim.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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