Regional/International
By N.P. Upadhyaya
Kathmandu: The US top diplomat Antony Blinken made a call to President Ashraf Ghani, August 3, and “underscored” the US commitment to Afghanistan, duly confirmed Ned Price, the official US spokesman.
Both Blinken and Ghani talked to “accelerate the peace negotiations” to achieve an “inclusive” political settlement which paves the way for the Afghan people to have a say in choosing their leaders. However, both Ghani and Blinken stated that care must be taken that the “leaders thus chosen a refrain from doing any harm to the US and its allies and partners. The US bottom-line perhaps. The US means it.
Notably, Ghani considers the Indian regime its “fast” friend and has “imported” arms and ammunitions to attack the insurgent Talibs who are upbeat with their speedy advancement towards Kabul and with the meet with the high profile Chinese officials in Tianjin.
Talibs anger towards India and Ghani is obvious.
President Ghani and Blinken have talked with each other close on the heels of the much-awaited talks of the troika plus that is going to be held in Doha, Qatar August 11, 2021, this week that has excluded India with calculated finesse.
(By the time this paper gets published, the Doha meet will be in progress).
President Ghani is taken as a political man very close to the US and India as stated, however, accuses the US and says “US’s sudden withdrawal from the region is the reason for the worsening security situation in the country.
Fresh reports say that President Ghani is feeling isolated” with the advancing Talibs and also with the nearing “exit” of the US forces.
Ghani may have added fear in that the Talibs in an implied manner have got recognized by three “great powers” and one super regional power which are Russia, China, the US and Pakistan respectively.
Fresh reports have it that the Talibs are just 20 miles away from Kabul. (As of Monday evening).
While writing this story, the United States has sent B-52 bombers and Spectre gunships to Afghanistan in a bid to stop Taliban insurgents who are marching towards Kabul with several places under Talibs control.
The B-52s are flying into Afghanistan from an airbase in Qatar, say media sources. Notably, Qatar is hosting the Troika Plus meet, August 11.
Speedy advancement of the Talibani forces that has caused annoyance in various world capitals fearing as to what would happen if and when the Taliban capture the seat of power in Kabul?
The troika plus Doha meet will be less than three weeks (20 days) of the US and the NATO forces departure from Afghanistan after two decades.
Representing the extended troika plus are Zami Kabulov from Russian Federation, Zalmay Khalilzad from the US, Yue Xiao Yong from China and Mohammad Sadiq Khan (who has stayed in Afghanistan as Pakistan’s Ambassador).
Veteran Zamir Kabulov is a high ranking Russian diplomat. He has served his country in Afghanistan as well. Needless to say, all these four diplomatic experts are foreign policy authorities in their respective countries. India wanted to be included in the troika plus, however, Russia appears to have ignored India because at the moment Russia and India have sharp differences on world political issues more so the Quad.
In addition, Zamir Kabulov, the special Russian Presidential envoy for Afghanistan point-blank told recently that “Since India has less or no influence on Taliban thus India’s role at the moment is not necessary”.
In the words of Kabulov, (sic) “India can’t participate in the format of the expanded group of three because it did not have any influence on the Taliban”, reported, Tass July 20.
The much-publicized troika plus firmly believes, “no military solution in Afghanistan and a negotiated political settlement through an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned process is the only way forward for lasting peace and stability in Afghanistan”.
According to Kabulov, the primary goals of the Afghan settlement at the moment are to achieve a cease-fire, resume the stalled inclusive intra-Afghan dialogue, and form an interim coalition government with tasks to carry out constitutional reform.
And this is the standard policy of Pakistan on Afghanistan though President Asharaf Ghani cries foul against the neighbour as he had bad mouth for Pakistan in Tashkent, Uzbekistan in mid-July last month.
And it is this Russian deliberate ignoring of India that encouraged the latter to land in Iran which too has been not included in the high-level meet of the envoys from Russia, China, the US and Pakistan.
However, the Indians believe that it was China that under the recommendation of Pakistan scuttled the Indian inclusion in the troika plus.
As of Iran, the country too wished to get included in the troika plus but Russia apparently avoided the US and Iran from embarrassment if and when the two would have sit at the negotiating table in Doha.
Clarifying the reason behind Iranian non-inclusion in the troika plus, Kabulov said, “Iran was suggested to be the fifth participant of the troika plus, but because of the differences between Washington and Tehran, the latter refused to take part in work of any format with the participation of the US”.
Now that Iran and India are out from the troika plus meet in Doha, the pained Indian Foreign Minister S. Shankar must have rushed to Iran to “reset” its ties with the latter simply because India being excessively closer with the US in the recent years must have annoyed Iran.
Let’s presume for a moment, India and Iran are coming closer than how Iran, the number one enemy of Israel will behave with India which is the biggest friend in the world after the US?
India’s closer ties with the Arab countries should perhaps also annoy Iran for it has not that good ties with the countries in the Gulf more so with Saudi Arabia which of late has some visible preferences for Israel.
If and when Iran and India come close, India will undoubtedly “spoil” the Afghan peace process championed by the troika plus. India, Iran and Afghanistan may form a separate front for peace in Afghanistan.
The fun is that while writing this story, President Ghani also landed in Tehran to seek Indian blessings and to thank Shankar for the arms that India sent to “annihilate” the Talibs.
The upcoming meeting of the troika plus is taking place close on the heels of the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan and by this time which is nearing completion as promised by President Joe Biden.
Meanwhile, the Foreign Office spokesman of Pakistan Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri, in a statement issued at the end of July last month in Islamabad, underscored the importance Pakistan attached to ‘Troika Plus’ and takes it as an important forum for facilitating the Afghan peace process.
Pakistan had been participating in the format regularly, he said, adding that Pakistan looked forward to the troika plus meeting.
“Pakistan will continue to support efforts to achieve a peaceful, stable and prosperous Afghanistan,” he reiterated.
Fearing infiltration, the Pak-Afghan border has been tentatively sealed.
To recall, Pakistan is on record to have signed a statement saying a Talibani Emirate would also be unacceptable to the country.
The unannounced visit of the Taliban delegation to China and their meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin, July 28 last month speaks so many things unspoken.
While Afghanistan is a member of the SAARC regional body then China has an “Observer” status in the same body.
China wants the upcoming set-up in Afghanistan a China-friendly as is Pakistan, Sri Lanka and to some extent, Bangladesh and India controlled Nepal and the Maldives. Recently, the “Go back India” slogan was heard in the Rawfied tiny island nation.
China told a visiting Taliban delegation that Beijing expected the insurgent group (Taliban) to play an important role in ending Afghanistan’s war and rebuilding the country, reports the Reuters. Nine Taliban representatives had met Wang Yi in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin who was on a two-day visit during which the peace process and security issues were discussed, a Taliban spokesperson said, reports Reuters.
China hoped the Taliban “play an important role in the process of peaceful reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan”, media sources claim.
China’s fresh “understanding” with the Taliban forces must have annoyed the US and India yet the former has agreed to work with China for the peace to prevail in Afghanistan.
India is the loser provided the Afghani warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum comes to the rescue.
Dostum is talked to be a close friend of Ashraf Ghani and concurrently an enemy of Pakistan claim media sources.
With the arrival of warlord Abdul Dostum, India has now one more “card” against Pakistan awaiting use and overuse.
To recall, Turkey is in NATO and wants to keep its army for the security of the Kabul airport.
Some say that after the US exit, China will enter Afghanistan as a small strip of land separates China from Afghanistan. Russia too would wish to enter Kabul through Central Asian states.
China fears that the Taliban may come close with the Uighur Muslims and create added problems for Beijing.
Analyst Phelim Kine for the ‘Politico China Watcher’ opines that China’s nightmare is that a Taliban victory might embolden the Uyghur armed insurgency group, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, to launch attacks in China.
The US wants Pakistan to “do more” and expects Pakistan to push the Talibs to a peace agreement with the establishment.
Pakistan responds that it has “exhausted” its leverage over the Taalibs because of the US announcement of the exit.
The Talibs felt that they have won the game with the exit date set by President Biden.
Islamabad now wants the ties with the US not limited to the Afghan peace but expects the ties to be based on “geo-economics” that takes care of trade, investment and connectivity.
Having said all these, the US largesse will approach Islamabad if and when peace is restored Afghanistan with the “do more” from Pakistan.
Despite the Taliban advance, the U.S. government hopes for the survival of Ghani’s government and a peaceful end to the conflict.
In a discussion, August 3, at the Aspen Security Forum, the U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad noted the “emboldened” Taliban was “in a maximalist frame of mind, “but insisted that a “political settlement and agreement” is possible.All in all, observers in Nepal believe that the extended troika plus will do all it can for the prevalence of peace in Afghanistan. South Asia needs peace and tranquillity. Indian occupied Kashmir is already a flashpoint. Let Kabul be free from Indian misadventure. And Kathmandu is also on the way to become a hotspot. That’s all.
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