Review of World Politics (RWP)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
After his resounding victory in 2018, K.P. Sharma Oli had the golden opportunity of taking Nepal on the path of sustained development on all fronts. But he made a hash of everything and failed miserably. Mainly, he did not have it in himself to lead successfully.
We are also aware that Shri Sher Bahadur Deuba is no decisive leader, able administrator or internationally respected statesman. But fate has given him a unique chance to bring the country on the right trajectory. He has to stop being frightened of his own shadow and make the right, far-reaching decisions. To lead is to delegate. Thus:
– He must disregard the crowning principle of Nepali politics, i.e. on no account practice bhagbanda, nepotism, favouritism and distributing the spoils of office. He must be able of scaling down corruption to the lowest rung.
– He must insist on appointing the right, capable people to the right, necessary posts and positions without fear or favour, i.e. attempt at least to introduce meritocracy.
– He has indeed made the right start by cancelling the appointments of ambassadors to 11 countries done by the previous government. He must embrace tradition, continuity and modernity in future appointments, guided by one overriding principle – the pursuit of our national interests, not that of a person, coterie or political party.
– His cabinet must be well-balanced and contain capable personalities. One of the important portfolios is that of foreign affairs. Because of Deuba’s own manifest limitations, the minister will be our most important face to the outside world. He must be able to chart an independent and sovereign course and faithfully follow the precept of Prithvi Narayan Shah of pursuing the policy of equidistance between our two immediate neighbours. After all, Nepal’s geo-political position is most precarious – as that between Scylla and Charybdis.
– His web of information and communication must be compact and expert among his personal, bureaucratic and ministerial aides and colleagues.
– Above all, in all the twists and turns of his tenure, Deuba has to realize that he is the servant and not the master of the Nepalese people.
After Oli’s machinations, the Nepalese people are generally favourably disposed towards Deuba. He has sufficient time to establish himself and his bona fides, and book his place in history.
Last Ditch Efforts for Peace in Afghanistan
Intense fighting rages all over Afghanistan, while U.S. and NATO forces finalize their withdrawal. Still, representatives of the Afghan government and the militant Talibanmet for talks last Saturday in a last-ditch effort to reach an elusive peace settlement.
Several high-ranking officials including former president Hamid Karzai and former chief executive Dr Abdullah Abdullah headed to Doha, Qatar. Najia Anwari, the spokeswoman for the Afghan government elucidated: “The high-level delegation is here to talk to both sides, guide them and support the [government] negotiating team in terms of speeding up the talks and have progress” (AFP, July 17).
A joint statement released late Sunday said little more than they had agreed on the need to reach a “just solution”, and to meet again “next week” (AFP, July 19).
However, it is most unlikely that the war-torn country “will witness a durable and dignified peace”, given that the Taliban have capitalized on the last stages of the futile withdrawal of US and other foreign troops to launch a series of lightning offensives across the country, which have completely surprised military observers.
Taliban Onslaught
Afghan forces clashed Friday with Taliban fighters in Spin Boldak [near Kandahar] after launching an operation to retake the key southern border crossing to Balochistan, Pakistan. In the fierce fighting, the Pulitzer Prize-winning Reuters photo-journalist Danish Siddiqui, an Indian national embedded with the security forces, was killed.
They have also tightened their grip in the north and battled for the stronghold of a local warlord.
The battle at the south-eastern border follows weeks of intensifying fighting across Afghanistan, with the Taliban pressing multiple offensives and overrunning dozens of districts at an astounding rate.
On Monday, an enigmatic and forlorn statement – signed by the US, EU, and over a dozen other missions in Kabul – called for “an urgent end” to the Taliban’s ruthless military offensive, saying it was at odds with claims they want a negotiated settlement to end the conflict, including by the Taliban’s supreme leader HibatullahAkhundzada (AFP, July 19).
This is indeed the Biden’s administration’s swan song, after refusing adamantly to listen to words of caution by pundits and military experts.
Afghanistan-Pakistan Spat
As fighting raged over large swathes of Afghanistan, a war of words also heated up between Kabul and Islamabad after the Afghan vice president accused the Pakistani military of providing “close air support to Taliban in certain areas.”
Pakistan strongly denied the claim, with a foreign ministry statement saying the country merely “took necessary measures within its territory to safeguard our own troops and population.”
Pakistan had called a conference of regional leaders to address the spiraling violence, but this was postponed until after the Muslim Eid al-Adha feast. Afghanistan’s eastern and southern borders with Pakistan have long been flashpoints with its neighbour. Pakistan’s Balochistan province has been a refuge to the Taliban’s top leadership for decades, along with a large contingent of reserve fighters who regularly enter Afghanistan to bolster their ranks (AFP).
International Dimension
At the “Central and South Asia 2021” conference in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, Russia’s foreign minister said that America’s hasty retreat from Afghanistan had destabilized the region and worsened the terrorist threat. The US mission in Afghanistan had “failed”.
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani claimed that 10,000 militants had sneaked into Afghanistan from Pakistan to create unrest there. He was immediately rebutted by Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, who countered: “Due to the Afghan conflict, Pakistan is the worst affected country and it was unfair to blame Pakistan for turmoil in Afghanistan” (Dawn, July 17).
Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Director-General Lt-Gen Faiz Hamid, who accompanied the PM to the conference, told the media that the violation of the border was not from Pakistan, but was being committed from Afghanistan.
U.S.-German Rapport
Joe Biden hosted Angela Merkel at the White House last Thursday for bilateral meetings as the outgoing German chancellor prepares to step down next September after the general elections. This marks Biden’s latest attempt to strengthen relations with all US allies – which had markedly deteriorated under Donald Trump.
The two leaders met in the Oval Office and later held a joint press conference. Biden and Merkel vowed to work together to defend against Russian aggression and stand up to anti-democratic actions by China. They also spoke to the importance of the US-German alliance.
Biden said he had also reiterated his concerns about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a major, nearly complete pipeline that runs from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea. However, he and Merkel were united in their belief that Russia should not use energy as a weapon. Biden recently waived sanctions against German entities involved in the project, a move that angered many in the US Congress, but was nevertheless a great conciliatory gesture vis-à-vis Germany.
Biden paid tribute to the German leader, as she nears the end of a political career that has spanned four American presidencies [Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden]: “I must tell you I will miss seeing you at our summits,” he said as he stood by Merkel, the second-longest serving chancellor in Germany’s history [after Helmut Kohl].
Merkel’s visit underscored Biden’s efforts to strengthen US alliances, after four years of Donald Trump’s divisive leadership. Biden, 78, and Merkel, 66, have known and worked with each other for years, and see eye to eye on a string of broader matters. Both leaders want to strengthen the transatlantic relationship that suffered badly under the former president’s frequent, withering criticism of close US allies and NATO.
But personal warmth notwithstanding, the US-German relationship is now at a pivot point as Merkel nears her departure from office. The two leaders do not have much time to work together to strengthen ties between the world’s largest and fourth-largest economies. Germany is also the leading voice in the European Union (EU). There are concerns on both sides about how the two nations will negotiate growing disagreements on various matters.
Germany and the United States also disagree over the wisdom of partnering with China on business projects, temporary patent waivers aimed at speeding global Covid-19 vaccine production and ongoing restrictions on Europeans travelling to the United States.
Germany’s Flash Floods bring Climate Policy into Limelight in Election Year
When the storm and floods hit the west German states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate last week, Germany’s top politicians all rushed to express sympathy for the flood victims and head to the disaster regions (DW/Deutsche Welle, July 16).
The leading candidates of the three main political parties hoping to replace Angela Merkel as chancellor in this September’s general election dropped everything to go to the region – the centre-right Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) Armin Laschet,
the Green Party’s AnnalenaBaerbock, and the centre-left Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) Olaf Scholz,
The behaviour of politicians during and after natural catastrophes has been decisive in previous German election campaigns and politicians’ careers.
The colossal North Sea flood of February 1962 killed over 300 people and left tens of thousands in West Germany’s port city of Hamburg without shelter. It was a crucial turning point in the career of Social Democrat Helmut Schmidt, then interior minister in the city-state. His handling of the crisis, particularly his unique and brilliant decision to mobilize soldiers to help gained his nationwide popularity. Schmidt went on to become federal minister of defence, then finance and finally served two terms as chancellor. Internationally, he was a respected statesman, second only to the legendary Willy Brandt.
In 2002, then-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of the SPD was immediately on the scene when the Elbe River burst its banks and caused immense suffering.
This time around, Armin Laschet, the candidate of Merkel’s centre-right bloc to be Germany’s next leader, may regret immensely to have let down his guard at a crucial moment. On Saturday, he visited the town of Erfstadt together with federal president Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
While Steinmeier gave a statement to reporters after the visit, Laschet and a group of others stood in the background. Photos captured him turning to someone else and laughing (AP, July 18). Thus, at a moment of great loss, Laschet, who is also the governor of the affected state, North Rhine-Westphalen, did not show the necessary gravitas. He did apologize later, but the damage had been done.
As LarsKlingbeil, the general secretary of the centre-left Social Democrats told Sunday’s Bild am Sonntag newspaper that Laschet’s behaviour was “lacking in decency and appalling”. He added: “They say that people’s character shows in time of crisis.” (AP).
There is no denying that now climate change has gone to the forefront of the German election campaign.
Ethiopia: Tigray Crisis Metamorphoses into Ethnic Conflict
There has been a sudden upsurge in ethnic violence in the far western corner of Ethiopia’s Tigray region. At night, people have been slipping across the well-guarded border, swimming across a fast-flowing brown river and trudging into Sudan to escape (BBC, July 16).
This fertile area is still held by soldiers and militias loyal to Ethiopia’s federal government under PM Abiy Ahmed – the Nobel Peace Laureate turned war-monger. This area is likely to be the next target for Tigray’s rebel fighters as they seek to strengthen their control over the region and secure the potentially crucial supply route into neighbouring Sudan. The northern route is cut off since Eritrea is currently Ahmed’s military ally and its troops – together with Ethiopia’s — have been marauding in Tigray.
The conflict in Tigray is now showing dangerous signs of transforming into a more widespread ethnic conflict that could implicate other parts of Ethiopia. Soldiers from the neighbouring region of Amhara – who currently control the key border town of Humera – have been targeting Tigrayan men of fighting age. Amhara conscripts and volunteers are now being rushed to reinforce the area, along with other militia forces from different parts of the country including Oromia and Sidama.
The isolated Sudanese border town of Hamdayet, just across the border from Humera, has become a transit point for thousands of Tigryan refugees – and almost certainly for rebel fighters too – who cross in and out of the town, sometimes slipping through nearby Eritrea.
The Ethiopian government has meanwhile indicated that it may end its unilateral ceasefire in Tigray, blaming “provocations” by the rebel forces, and started mobilizing more troops from different regions.
The flow of refugees has slowed in recent months. It began in November 2020, when the conflict in Tigray first erupted between forces loyal to the regional government and Ethiopia’s federal state.
According to multiple security and intelligence sources in the region, the upsurge of ethnic violence inside Tigray – particularly in and around Humera – was a sign that a major battle could be imminent. After its spectacular recent successes further south and east, the rebel “Tigray Defence Forces” are widely expected to try to seize all of western Tigray before the rains cut off much access (BBC).
However, this strategic town lies in disputed territory, long-claimed by ethnic Amharas, who took control of the area soon after the Tigray conflict started. The main concern is that an escalating conflict here will further fire up ethnic tensions within Ethiopia, and could also regionally fuel instability in neighbouring Sudan and Eritrea.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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