Review of World Politics
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal in the Dumps
We are currently in a state of suspended animation or rather an international political vacuum. We have neither a functioning foreign minister nor a sustainable foreign policy. Not only has Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli made a mess of domestic politics with his various escapades, but this has also spoiled the realm of foreign relations.
We are unaware of what the bureaucrats are really up to in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA), but it has become abundantly clear that our various foreign missions are not doing their work in a proper manner. The one case in point is that the government has not been able to procure the necessary vaccines in a timely manner. One day, the whole foreign relations government apparatus – domestic and external must be overhauled. We need to have a serious debate about the matter.
Probably, at no point in our modern history have we found ourselves in such a terrible mess. In the area of external relations, we even find serious academics questioning the hoary principle of the country charting the path of equidistance between the behemoths China and India. To do otherwise, would be the death-knell of Nepal’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. That is the supreme constraint of geography as recognized by the Great Unifier, Prithvi Narayan Shah the Great under whose guidance Nepal emerged as a new and unified state [actually even before the United States].
It is also a useless exercise harping on the ‘special relationship’ between Nepal and India. First and foremost, our own vital national interests must be considered. Oli and others before him have tried to play one power against another, one so-called card against another – as if such a small country like ours sandwiched between giants can afford to play such a ‘great game’. The end result has been that they themselves have become pawns, sacrificing national interests for their own selfish personal interests. Domestic politics are, therefore, being unnecessarily being dictated by foreign actors – a sure sign of weakness of our backwater politicians – no better than wheeler-dealers — who can never rise to the level of well-versed statesmen.
At the same time, we should not forget our ‘very special relationship’ with China. The various kingdoms/dynasties in the Nepal Valley [now Kathmandu] did cultivate trade, cultural and political relations with Tibet and the Middle Kingdom since ancient times. Many of our ethnic groups like the Sherpas are, in fact, Tibetan in origin. And many Nepalese ethnic groups from West and East Nepal, as well as, the Newars – the most culturally vibrant ethnic group in the country – have cultural and ethnographical affinities with Mongolian sub-groups and Chinese minorities in the south and south-east.
Thus, the history and ethnography of the so-called dominant Khas-Arya [actually the Bahun and Chhetri groups], as well as, the people of Tarai-Madhes cannot be the decisive factors in Nepal’s modern trajectory.
We have also to take into consideration, that in the modern era, China, unlike India, has not attempted to persistently interfere in our domestic affairs, to the extent of ‘micro-managing them. The Indian political elites have also often tried to forcefully bend our leaders to their will by means of economic sanctions and blockades!
India’s self-styled reputation as ‘the pharmacy of the world’ has taken a huge hit. It reneged on its promise to supply us with vaccines for which we had even already paid.
Sanctions on Myanmar Officials Likely Fruitless
Last Friday, the Biden administration imposed sanctions on 22 Myanmar [also known as Burma] senior officials and family members over the military government’s violent crackdown on democracy protests after the February 1 coup by the Tatmadaw (military).
The US Treasury announced: “The military’s suppression of democracy and campaign of brutal violence against the people of Burma are unacceptable. The United States will continue to impose increasing costs on Burma’s military and promote accountability for those responsible for the military coup and ongoing violence, including by targeting sources of revenue for the military and its leaders” (AP/July 2).
However, the US sanctions have not influenced the junta’s behaviour in any way, nor have UN and ASEAN pressure. The regions two major powers, China and India are fully behind the junta. Russia has been very diligent in supplying arms and ammunition to the detested regime.
Junta Leader’s Images Burnt
In the meantime, protesters burned mock coffins and pictures of army ruler Gen. Min Aung Hliang, 65, on his birthday in the latest demonstrations against the coup over five months ago that has plunged the Southeast Asian country into horrific chaos (Reuters, July 2).
“May you not rest in peace” and “may your birthday and deathday be the same,” read the messages on the ‘funeral wreaths’ in Theinzayet township in eastern Mon state. Similar protests took place in many parts of Myanmar.
According to UN figures, more than 890 people have been killed by security forces since the coup and more than 5,200 are in detention.
In the latest clashes, 25 anti-junta fighters and civilians were killed by the military in the central Sagaing region. All over the country, civilians are forming “defence forces” to combat the “State Administrative Council”, as the junta styles itself (AFP, July 4).
As with other crisis-ridden areas, the international community has not been able to be effective in conflict management. The UN Security Council which is supposed to be the executive arm of the UN has failed miserably, but actually because the permanent members [P 5] are not willing to accept responsibility. The much-vaunted rules-based international order is not functioning.
The U.S. Finally Abandons Afghanistan
Nearly 20 years after invading Afghanistan to oust the Taliban and hunt down Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida, the U.S. military has vacated Bagram [an hour’s drive from Kabul], its biggest airfield in the country, advancing its final withdrawal that the Pentagon says will be completed by the end of August (AP/July 3). The U.S. under George W. Bush invaded the country without permission, and are now withdrawing without any proper consultations with the current government of Ashraf Ghani. His invitation to the White House was just an eyewash.
The last US troops left Bagram in the dead of night, without a proper military handover and without informing the new Afghan commander (AP/July 6). Such unusual, unworthy and slovenly behaviour just indicates that the Americans have a very bad conscience in this regard. In any case, they have lost face – big!
A number of issues need to be worked out in the coming weeks, including a new U.S. military command structure at the U.S. embassy and talks with Turkey on an arrangement for maintaining security at the Kabul international airport – the main conduit for all diplomats and aid workers.
The U.S. is trying to impart the impression of a meticulous transition, as Pentagon press secretary John Kirby claimed: “A safe, orderly drawdown enables us to maintain an ongoing diplomatic presence, support the Afghan people and the government, and prevent Afghanistan from once again becoming a safe haven for terrorists that threatens our homeland.”
It does seem that Biden is heading towards colossal failure. He is seeing the Afghanistan withdrawal in isolation, whereas it will have unintended consequences in the region and the wider world. His stubborn policy of strategic denial will come back to haunt him. His misguided conviction that America’s mission in Afghanistan had long been accomplished – a delusion carried over from his vice-presidential years – will have devastating effects on his foreign policy in general.
The ground reality is changing rapidly in favour of the militant Islamist Taliban – it is as if the political trajectory has turned full circle with the insurgents capturing district after district, besieging the district capitals and moving relentlessly towards Kabul. The Afghan security forces are retreating steadily and abandoning both citadels and arms and ammunition. Ad hoc armed groups, many from ethnic communities are trying to prevent a rout and would-be ‘war lords’ are attempting to form their own ‘armies’. The war-torn country will continue in this state without respite – the withdrawal period of US and NATO troops is probably the lull before the storm.
Ethiopia: Tigray Again Ascendant
Last week, the rebel Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) re-captured their capital city Mekelle, after months of fighting, sparking wild celebrations on the streets. This is “a significant milestone in the eight-month conflict in northern Ethiopia, which has killed thousands of people and left millions in desperate need of food and other assistance” (BBC/Vivienne Nunis, July 3). This rebel resurgence definitely raises crucial questions for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, the Nobel Peace Laureate turned warmonger.
Whether this turn of events will be a turning point in the regional conflict, in which Eritrea is also heavily involved, depends on domestic and international factors.
Abiy Ahmed [despite his Muslim-sounding name, he is an evangelical Christian] initially said the withdrawal was a strategic move because Mekelle was no longer “the centre of gravity for conflicts”, but he later confirmed it was to avoid further casualties. Probably, it was more in the nature of a tactical action to allow the Ethiopian forces, which have been heavily mauled, to regroup.
Will Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia at the International Crisis Group (ICG), also holds that there has been a significant shift in the war: “It signals that either the federal government was unable to hold onto Mekelle, or it realized it is in the best interest to withdraw from Tigray. That was in light of significant battle gains” by rebel forces loyal to the TPLF.
The Ethiopian government withdrew its forces and unilaterally declared a “humanitarian ceasefire” in Tigray in order to allow farming activity and aid delivery.
The Tigray forces designated this announcement “a joke”, continued fighting, seizing more territory including the town of Shire.
The Tigray rebels now have the upper hand in this long-running conflict.
The focus has now shifted to the neighbouring region of Amhara, south of Tigray, which claims some Tigrayan territory. It is also home to one of the largest ethnic groups and the Amhara wing of the Prosperity Party is one of the two most powerful regional branches of PM Abiy’s ruling party at the federal level. In the broader scheme of things, Abiy could utilize Amhara-Tigray tensions to cut off the latter’s international supply route through neighbouring Sudan. The domestic and international situation is in flux.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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