By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
United Nations 75th Anniversary
World leaders came together virtually on Monday to mark the 75th anniversary of the foundation of the UN, as the deadly coronavirus pandemic and tensions between the U.S. and China challenge the effectiveness and solidarity of the 193-member body.
China has portrayed itself as the chief cheerleader for multilateralism amidst Trump’s disregard for international cooperation:
“No country has the right to dominate global affairs, control the destiny of others, or keep advantages in development all to itself.
Even less should one be allowed to do whatever it likes and be the hegemon, bully or boss of the world! Unilateralism is a dead end.” (President Xi Jinping to the UN/Reuters, September 22).
International cooperation is in a major crisis and the UN in the crosshairs. The UN’s troubled anniversary is an opportune moment to reassess its strength and weaknesses (Stewart M. Patrick: World Politics Review, September 21).
German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for reforms to the organization and for greater unity among its members (Deutsche Welle, September 21).
A New World Disorder
The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned recently: “We are moving in a very dangerous direction.” There was an acute risk of a rupture between the world’s two biggest economic powers which could then “lead to forms of a military confrontation that would be very undesirable” (Reuters, September 14).
Guterres did not address the fact that it is Trump’s America that is responsible for this state of affairs. The United States has been walking off the field with regard to its engagement in international organizations and has allowed China to gradually fill the vacuum.
The UN Secretary General’s analysis of the state of the world hits the nail on the head, but he has not been forthcoming about ways and means to avert the looming disaster. He has to take the initiative in the face of American hostility to ‘multilateralism’, the timid approach of the European Union (EU) and the emasculation of such Middle Powers like Japan, India and Australia.
As Karl Marx said in another context:
The philosophers have only interpreted the world in various ways, the point is to change it.”
A diplomat at UN HQ in Geneva complained: “Multilateralism is blocked”, blaming countries generally opposed to multilateralism [foremost Trump’s America], as well as a lack of clear UN decisions on how to move forward (AFP, September 17).
However, even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, the UN was struggling to keep up the high pace of international meetings amid a drawn-out liquidity crisis brought on by numerous countries failing to pay their dues on time [the main villain again: the U.S. !].
U.S. Standpoint
According to most analysts, the United States has shifted from ‘multilateralism’ and also decisively from suspicion of China to open confrontation.
Trump has made China the main target of his foreign policy/national security attacks, accusing it of everything from taking advantage of trade deals and intellectual property to mismanaging the coronavirus pandemic, purposefully calling it the ‘China virus’ together with his sidekicks like SoS Mike Pompeo. Thus, the diplomatic hostility has now spilt over to perceivably every branch of inter-state interaction.
Yet domestic support for a robust line on China spans the political spectrum in America – in Congress, the two main political parties and the Establishment (Oxford Analytica, September 16). Democratic presidential hopeful, Joe Biden will inherit the build-up of momentum if he wins in November.
Other Powers
There is also retraction on the ground in the European Union (EU). Governments are modifying their behaviour from treating China as an economic opportunity to viewing it as an economic threat.
Indo-Pacific Region
Indians generally regard China as a threat and mutual hostility is higher than ever following this year’s deadly clash in June on their disputed Karakorum/Himalaya border.
After Australia moved for an independent investigation into the origins of Covid-19 and initiated steps to counter Chinese influence operations in the country, Canberra has been at the sharp end of Beijing’s antagonism.
How Sino-American Rivalry Impacts International Cooperation
The long-simmering tensions between the US and China have hit boiling point at the United Nations and all its affiliated organizations – the coronavirus pandemic being the latest flashpoint. So much so that Beijing has now initiated a greater bid for multilateral influence in a challenge to Washington’s traditional leadership (Reuters/Michelle Nichols, September 14). Xi Jinping is clearly outwitting Trump, the ‘Dummkopf’ [=idiot].
Xi has unequivocally accelerated his UN power play as Trump ill-advised and crackbrained completely disregarded international cooperation. His disreputed and misguided America First foreign and trade policy based on outdated American exceptionalism lead to the US quitting global agreements like the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal and also leaving the UN Human Rights Council and the World Health Organization (WHO).
A senior European diplomat went so far as to assert that there was unquestionable “a battle for the soul of the UN going on,” adding that Trump’s hare-brained ‘America First’ policy has been damaging because the Chinese have a sort of smooth assertion that they are the true multilateralists.
The backlash to China’s Assertive Policies
China’s increasingly forthright pursuit of its strategic goals on multiple fronts has provoked significant international hostility.
In the past, Beijing typically focused on disputes with particular countries while trying to stabilize relations with others – a considered two-pronged strategy.
However, now it seems to antagonize numerous foreign governments at once – from Japan over the disputed East China Sea islands to Taiwan and to the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia in the South China Sea to India and Australia.
China’s external conduct now faces more open scrutiny and resistance than ever before. The criticisms of alleged misconduct by China target various areas, including economic and trade policy, defence and military policy, human rights abuses [allegedly in Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia] and coercive use of its influence [e.g. vis-à-vis Hong Kong, Taiwan]. There is even discussion of Xi over-extending China’s use of naked power.
Beijing can undoubtedly count on some international support in multilateral fora, often from smaller [island nations in the Pacific, Central American countries], poorer [small and mid-size countries of South Asia], or more authoritarian countries [Myanmar, Kampuchea, Venezuela, Russia].
Beijing’s foreign relations are in a state of flux. The international organizations it has championed – Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the five-nation conglomerate BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are dormant, if not in decline.
China has ratcheted up success in other international fora, including the United Nations, but only because of disastrous policies under Trump. His forceful is, of course, marching resolutely ahead with its signature all-encompassing BRI. Currently, however, its inroads in the political West have been temporarily suspended and have had mixed results in the Global South.
Domestic Constraints & External Ambiguities
As the centenary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) approaches next year and confirmation of a third five-year term in office the year after, Xi must continue his forceful domestic and external agendas without any negative repercussions. At the same time, he must convince the Party and the public that Western hostility is inevitable but manageable and the gains from his foreign policy outweigh the costs.
At the same time, he has to ensure that patriotism does not get out of hand and metamorphoses into extreme nationalism and even jingoism [this phenomenon is being observed in neighbouring India]. This also entails curtailing the hotheads in the entire chain of command in the military. Expert Sinologists believe that Chinese policy makers are divided over the wisdom of Xi’s assertive foreign/national security policy, but most still support him.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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