BY SHASHI MALLA
• Region South Asia
• Afghanistan Presidential Elections
Last Sunday’s presidential election was largely seen as a race between incumbent President Ashraf Ghani and his main rival and current government chief executive Abdullah Abdullah [a peculiar kind of double heads-of-state]. But there were also 12 other candidates. Both were again seen as the frontrunners.
There were real concerns this election could turn out to be a rerun of the 2014 presidential poll in which there were allegations of corruption and overshadowed by violence. The two main contenders then – Ghani and Abdullah – were at daggers drawn, and it was only through the good offices of then American Secretary of State that the two were brought together for an amicable settlement. Since then, there has been an uneasy peace.
In the last presidential election in 2014, 7 million turned out to vote. This time around, the turnout was only 2 million people or about 20 percent of registered voters. There are concerns that low participation could threaten the legitimacy of the election. However, it took place in a heightened atmosphere of extreme violence and intimidation by the militant radical Islamists, the Taliban. The Afghan voters are to be saluted for risking life and limb to cast their votes. Their courageous act should be an eye opener, not only for their compatriots, but for the world at large. The Taliban have amply demonstrated that they are not interested in supporting the democratic process, but in undermining it and re-establishing a quintessential, radicalized Islamist society, in which, above all, women and girls will suffer the most. Trump’s Afghan policy is, therefore, fundamentally flawed. His basic aim is to totally withdraw from Afghanistan, and the devil take the hindmost.
Tight security ensured the election took place in relative calm. There were more than 400 attacks, mostly small-scale, carried out by the militants, in order to derail the process, but they did not succeed. The government of Ashraf Ghani succeeded at great odds to protect democracy.
Official results are expected in the middle of this month.
• Pakistan’s Imran Khan warns of ‘Bloodbath’ in Kashmir
Speaking at the annual 74th UN General Assembly (UNGA), Pakistan’s PM Imran Khan made the dismal prediction that there would be terrible bloodletting when India lifts its curfew in its part of disputed Kashmir [in fact the impact has mostly been felt in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, and less in Hindu-majority Jammu and Buddhist-majority Ladakh regions].
In his impassioned speech, he also painted the spectre of an all-out conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations which would reverberate far beyond their borders. “If this goes wrong, you hope for the best but be prepared for the worst,” Khan said.
Previously, a senior U.S. diplomat for South Asia had called for a lowering of rhetoric between India and Pakistan [ implying that war mongering on both sides has to stop]while emphasizing that Washington hoped to see rapid action by India to lift restrictions it has imposed in Indian-administered Kashmir (IAK) and the release of detainees there.
New Delhi has since eased some of the curbs, although no prominent detainees have been freed, and cell phone and internet connections remain suspended. Indian PM Narendra Modi in his own address to UNGA, shortly before Khan, made no mention of Kashmir or Pakistan, concentrating mainly on India’s efforts to protect the environment.
• Nepal’s Deteriorating ‘Law & Order’ Situation
Nepal’s Maoist/Communist leaders are increasingly demonstrating autocratic tendencies. They are squashing internal and external criticism, which is normal in a democratic society. But they seem to be living in a parallel universe. Oli and Dahal-Prachanda see themselves as ‘strongmen’ and their party controlling every aspect of people’s lives. Unfortunately, their youth wing has started to intimidate, threaten and attack people who reject their extremist ideology. This is not a welcome development, especially when these so-called ‘democratic’ leaders even encourage these miscreants, thugs and radicals.
Thus, the recent brutal attack on the social activist GyanendraShahi in Chitwan, was according to BipinAdhikari, a constitutional expert, ‘just one symptom of a growing attempt to suppress dissent by the government, which is employing state mechanisms to threaten, coerce and punish critics’ (TKP/The Kathmandu Post, September 30, 2019). The situation has even been compared to the war-time retaliation during the infamous and so-called ‘People’s War’.
A day later, cadres of the ruling Nepal Communist Party (NCP) obstructed Nepali Congress (NC) leader MinendraRijal while he was on his way to attend a public function in Tanahun district. Rijal said pointedly: “The government is exercising authoritarianism. And its party cadres have followed suit.” Oli’s and Dahal-Prachanda’s silence on these incidents speaks volumes. But what happened to NC’s leadership role in opposition? The party finds itself in an impotent and dismal position, lacking any energy to act decisively – just as Britain’s Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn.
It is high noon to organize the resistance against an autocratic Communist regime that is attempting to establish one-party state.
• United States: Impeachment Enquiry on Trump
Ukraine Angle
US President Donald Trump had urged his Ukrainian counterpart, VolodymyrZelenskiy to find damaging material on his potential political rival, former Vice President Joe Biden [currently one of the two top contenders in the Democratic Party]. This misdemeanor has not only led to a political scandal of epic proportions, but may also lead to Trump’s impeachment [the process by which he is removed from office]. Ukraine finds itself in a difficult position and wants to remain neutral in the American domestic constitutional crisis.
Impeachment Process
The process by which a president of the United States (POTUS) is impeached is as follows:
1. Official Announcement. The beginning of the procedure for removing POTUS from the high office has been made by the Speaker of the House of Representatives announcing that an enquiry into Donald Trump’s misdemeanours has started. Various committees of the House are already at work. Is this the beginning of the end of the ‘reign’ of the ‘Emperor of Nonsense’?
2. Investigation of Trump’s wrongdoing(s) by the 6 House committees.
3. Articles Drafting. The lead committee – probably the Judiciary Committee – in cooperation with the other committees (intelligence, oversight, etc.) will draft the articles of impeachment.
4. The whole House will vote on the articles of impeachment. Since the Democrats have a majority since the mid-term Congressional elections of 2018, there can be no doubt that the articles will be passed.
5. Impeachment confirmed. This means that the president is now formally charged. Still this is not a strictly a “legal”, but a “political” process to indict the president (put on trial).
6. Senate Trial. The process now shifts to the upper house or Senate, which now transforms itself into a ‘high court’, to try the president. In the meantime, the House of Representatives has already appointed “managers” to prosecute the president personally. The president himself will have his own defence lawyers. All the 100 Senators will be the jurors. The Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court will preside.
7. Verdict. The Supreme Court will have to decide by a two-thirds majority in order for the verdict to be binding. In the entire history of the United States, three presidents have faced impeachment, but none have been removed from office. Richard Nixon resigned before impeachment proceedings were even formally started. Andrew Jackson and Bill Clinton were impeached, but were acquitted by the Senate.
In the case of Trump, since the Republicans have a majority in the Senate, it is unlikely – in the current scenario at least – that he will suffer the inglorious fate of being hounded from office. At least 20 Republican Senators would have to change sides. In an informal online public opinion poll conducted by CNN/Smerconish, only a meagre 5 percent found that Trump would be impeached at all. An eager and optimistic 23 percent were of the opinion that he would indeed be impeached and then sacked by the Senate. A realistic 72 percent opined that after impeachment Trump would be acquitted.
Actually, public support for impeaching Trump is growing day by day, especially among democratic and independent supporters. To the most significant and urgent question of the day as to why Trump still behaves imperiously, a CNN commentator replied perspicaciously: “Trump has apparently come to believe that he is so brilliant, so talented, that he could get away with defying every norm, every practice, every institution of the democracy he is charged with leading.” Unfortunately [for him and his misguided supporters and hangers-on] or fortunately [for all well-wishers of the American democratic system] his hubris has finally caught up with him. He will be found to be only mortal, i.e. expendable and superfluous.
There is already a very lively discussion among political analysts, experts and pundits about the possible fallout. In the case of Clinton, he did manage to save his presidency, but there were terrible political repercussions. The Democrats lost their majority in Congress in the next elections, and unfortunately and above all, Al Gore, Clinton’s vice president lost narrowly in the Electoral College to George W. Bush, the infamous instigator of the illegal Iraq War, which itself has brought untold misery in the Middle East. History would indeed have taken a very different turn, had Al Gore [the great environmentalist] been at the helm of affairs!
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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