By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel
There is an old saying that goes “better late than never”. This old adage seems to aptly fit our Prime Minister KP Oli. In July 2024, Oli became the PM for the fourth time after inking an agreement with Deuba, leading a coalition government in turn. Everyone was taken aback when he visited China as his maiden international sojourn after assuming office, breaking the tradition of the first international visit to India. However, just recently Oli got an official invitation from his Indian counterpart – Narendra Modi. According to the invitation, Oli will pay an official visit on 16 September.
While the invitation is largely viewed as a positive gesture in improving the strained relationship between Nepal and India, many question why India was not ready to welcome Oli soon after he became the PM. This is a difficult question to answer. However, one thing was clear: the Delhi administration was not happy with Oli over his growing bonhomie with his northern neighbour.
Just to recall, Oli’s relationship with India began to sour post-constitution promulgation. New Delhi had expressed serious displeasure over some provisions related to proportional representation and marginalised communities while we were promulgating the constitution in 2015. It even circulated seven-point demands for the amendment to the constitution within days of its promulgation. In response, Oli clearly and loudly said that it is our internal affair and any undue interference will not be tolerated. The remarks on the part of Oli instigated New Delhi to impose what it called an unofficial embargo. The economic embargo was imposed while Nepal was struggling to recover from the earthquake in fourteen districts of the country.
After Oli refused to bow down to Indian diktat, he became the darling of the masses, giving the impression that there is someone who has the guts to challenge the southern neighbour. People from all walks of life appreciated Oli for his anti-India stance. They admired Oli for defying the Indian diktat. He was elected as PM following the promulgation of the constitution in a parliamentary vote, receiving 338 votes of 597 members in the parliament.
Since then, Oli’s relationship with New Delhi has always been an issue of discussion. Whether it be media or political pundits, everyone raises questions on when Oli and his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, will re-establish their relationship, fostering bilateral relations between the two friendly nations. Their concern was finally addressed just a few days ago when it was officially announced that Oli will pay a visit to India on September 16.
Soon after the official announcement, questions were raised by the political observers asking about the outcome of the visit. They question whether Oli will be able to raise the thorny issues, including those related to the border dispute, during his maiden visit to India. This is a key concern that everyone expects to be his major agenda during the upcoming visit.
It is generally believed that Oli was desperately attempting to mend his ties with India, which soured post the 2015 constitution promulgation. It is said that Oli was leaving no stone unturned to visit India with the objective of re-establishing his relations with India. The best manifestation of this is that Oli attempted to visit India before embarking on the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September last year. But it did not materialise for reasons that still remain unknown. Though Oli and Modi met on the sidelines of the 79th General Assembly, the meeting did not help lay the ground for Oli’s visit to Delhi.
A few months later, Oli got another chance to meet Modi in Bangkok on the sidelines of the sixth summit of BIMSTEC. Sadly, the meeting was also reported to be a futile exercise, as it failed to lay the foundation for his visit to India. The reason was that India viewed Oli with scepticism, labelling him a pro-China leader. Now, with the recent official announcement, Oli’s long-standing wait to visit India has finally come to an end, paving the way for him to mend his ties with New Delhi.
The visit coincides with Narendra Modi’s birthday on September 17. We expect the visit will be very crucial, not only to mend his ties with New Delhi but also to offer a space to talk about border-related issues. In addition, we also hope that the visit will foster bilateral collaboration, helping Nepal in its development. The visit is also expected to revisit the past agreement signed between the two nations, laying the foundation for their effective implementation.
Over the years, China has been closely observing Nepal and its activities in terms of its foreign policy. This is manifested in the fact that it had expressed serious reservations over the Millennium Challenge Corporation – a US-funded project aimed at infrastructure. Furthermore, it is also said that Beijing played the role behind the curtain to bring two communists – the UML and the Maoist Centre – together right before the general election of 2017. Oli needs to be very careful that he will not upset the northern neighbour while pleasing the southern neighbour. Given the geostrategic location, Nepal needs both countries to excel for much-needed rapid economic growth.
PM Oli’s India visit has always faced political criticism. This visit is no exception either. There are already growing rumours that Oli could sign an anti-national and anti-sovereignty deal during the visit. His political opponents are weaving a story that this visit is solely aimed at mending his ways and pleasing his southern neighbour for his political mileage. This is where Oli has to silence his critics. Given his ability to transform the challenges into opportunities, Oli is very unlikely to commit any blunder that puts the nation at risk. To say, we expect this visit to re-establish a cordial relation between two nations.
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