* Nepal: Regime Change or Renewal?
* Sino-Russian Partnership or Axis?
* Putin’s Ukraine War: Possibilities & Probabilities
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal at the Crossroads
Nepal has reached a critical point in its political development.
On the one hand, on the economic front it is poised to take-off from being one of the least developed country into the realm of a developing one.
Side by side, since the Revolution of 1950/51 under the leadership of the ‘Father of the Nation’, King Tribhuvan, the country has made major strides in the health sector and education. The literacy rate and life expectancy have increased by leaps and bounds.
However, in society, there is much to be desired. Social mobility – horizontally and vertically – has increased, but not enough.
Discrimination against lower castes, ethnic minorities and especially women is rampant.
How can the nation progress, when more than half the population – women – are kept back?
Very unfortunately, Nepal is still a male-dominated society. Paternalism is holding back development in most sectors.
Until and unless women achieve parity from the grassroots to the top echelons of administration (local, district and national), government, business and politics, there can be no real development.
Nepali women themselves must come forward and demonstrate their leadership qualities.
Mass demonstrations, protests, strikes – and “Bandhas”?
After demonstrating some strength in Nepal’s south, the would-be Volkstribun [popular leader, champion of the common people] Durga Prasai is finally coming to the capital of the Himalayan Republic to demonstrate his leadership and the people’s power.
In the South, he was able to garner some royal support. How much and to what extent, are the ex-Royals willing and able to extend their valuable contribution?
And how will the political, business and security establishments react?
Shri Prasai Ji is embarking on a dangerous path. He has now called for an indefinite bandha (total general strike).
Three relevant questions arise:
- How does he intend to enforce such a bandh?
- How will the political establishment react?
- What will be repercussions on daily life and the economy?
The pertinent fact is that such a bandh is an action of last resort, and to be relied on only if the organizers know they have the people’s backing to a large extent. This Shri Prasai cannot be sure of.
The bandh as a method of political action is essentially repressive and regressive.
It demands of the people that they be passive and accept all inconveniences, including loss of income. The poorest of the poor will be particularly effected.
It is purely a method of demonstrating power, less of generating regime change.
Prasai and his team should have better considered putting the present government [and the wobbly non-functioning 10-party coalition] under intense pressure through well-thought out massive demonstrations at the centres of power – Baluwatar (PM’s official residence), Singha Durbar (various ministries), Naya Baneswar (parliament) and the political parties’ HQs.
Nepal: Not so Happy!
Nepal’s current ranking in the World Happiness Index is surely a reflection on the current state of the nation.
It ranked at the miserable 100th position out of 156 countries surveyed!
However, other South Asian countries fared even worse with the following rankings:
Bangladesh 125
Sri Lanka 130
India 140
Afghanistan 154
Pakistan did best at position 67. But those were idyllic times, not the sad shambles of today.
Bhutan did second best at 95.
The 2019 World Happiness Report named Finland the happiest place to live, followed by Denmark and Norway.
Nepal’s ideal countries [those that the country and people look up to] were ranked as follows:
Switzerland 6
Austria 10
Singapore 34
It is astounding that Russia then was still ranked at 68 !
Ukraine War
Poland Defies Putin
Poland has become the first NATO nation to supply Ukraine with fighter jets, Polish President Andrezej Duda has confirmed.
Speaking in Warsaw last Thursday, Duda said Ukraine would receive an initial batch of four Polish Soviet-era MiG-29 jets “within the next few days.” Further deliveries are expected to follow once additional planes from Poland’s Cold War fleet have undergone servicing.
The Polish landmark decision to send fighter jets to Ukraine is a major watershed moment in international efforts to back the country in its struggle against brutal Russian aggression.
Over the past year, many countries have sent weapons and armaments to Ukraine.
This support has helped make it possible for the Ukrainian military to liberate around half the territory occupied by Russia since the invasion on February 22, 2023.
However, many say Western military aid has been overly cautious, with discerning critics insisting that arms supplies have been carefully calibrated to prevent Ukrainian defeat but without being sufficient to secure a decisive victory over Russia. (Peter Dickenson/Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, March 16).
Russia’s Course
After Russia’s invasion, hundreds of thousands of Russians who opposed their government’s actions fled the country.
One of the most proficient Russia experts, Alexander Gabuev expands on the drivers of Russia’s belligerent foreign policy in a brilliant essay in Foreign Affairs, arguing that the current trajectory was not predestined, and that there were many chances for the Kremlin to do things differently.
The deplorable foreign policy course and the tragedy of the Ukraine war are the result of deliberate choices by President Putin and the inability of Russian society to push back.
U.S. Republicans Against Ukraine Support
Russia has now received unlikely support from part of the U.S. Republican party.
Thus, Ukraine’s future could be on the ballot in an unimagined source – in the United States itself!
An intense debate over President Joe Biden’s multi-billion dollar lifeline to Kyiv has erupted over the early exchanges of the 2024 presidential campaign.
It all started when the disreputable Fox News opinion host Tucker Carlson – a noted ‘prophet of doom’ of the armed conflict – asked potential Republican candidates to answer a questionnaire about what they would do in the White House if elected (CNN/Meanwhile in America, March 16).
Ex-President Donald Trump said – bombastic and unrealistic – he’d easily stop the conflict if he were elected to another term and declared himself the only potential president who could prevent World War III!
But it was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis [a double Ivy League qualified – Yale and Harvard] – who is seen as Trump’s biggest rival but is not even a declared candidate yet – caused the biggest turmoil by declaring that supporting Ukraine was not a core national interest and that Putin’s war was a mere territorial dispute.
This new and rising Republican skepticism of US military, financial and humanitarian aid to Kyiv presents Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with the most critical test yet of his international campaign for the weapons and ammunition his country badly needs to survive the Russian onslaught.
Unfortunately, the Republican negativity will also bolster Putin’s apparent belief that he can outlast Western resolve and eventually crush Ukrainian resistance.
Robust Defence of Biden’s Strategy
However, the Pentagon has delivered a full-throated defence of Biden’s modus operandi vis-à-vis Ukraine.
America’s top military officer, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Millay, and the Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin spelled out in robust language why Americans should care about Putin’s invasion.
“This is and remains a Russian frontal assault on the rules-based international order that has been in place for 80 years,” Milley said.
“This is an act of brutal aggression by President Putin and the Russian military, with complete disregard for human life, both civilian and military. The Russians are wantonly killing civilians in large attacks on civilian infrastructure and densely populated urban areas.”
Austin added: “Ukraine matters. It matters not to just Ukraine or to the United States. It matters to the world.”
Putin Indicted by International Criminal Court (ICC)
Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court in the Netherlands has issued a warrant for the arrest of Putin over the forced abduction of thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia.
However, there is little chance that he really will end up on trial at The Hague.
Putin can without trouble participate in the autumn summit of the G – 20, since India is not a member of the ICC.
Ukraine Grain Exports
In spite of the raging war, Russia and Ukraine have extended a deal that allows Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea, although it is unclear how long the deal will last.
The United Nations and Turkey first helped broker the deal last summer. Ukraine is one of the world’s top grain producers.
This deal is of vital importance for the global food supply, especially to the poor countries of the so-called Global South.
Regardless, many countries have taken a neutral stand – pointing to lack of ethical standards in foreign policy!
Putin Visits Mariupol
Meanwhile, Putin made an unannounced visit to Mariupol, the port-city on the Black Sea, roughly 10 months after it was forcibly taken over by the Russian military.
This was the first time Putin visited the Donbas region since announcing last September that he was annexing it.
Mariupol’s exiled former mayor likened Putin to a murderer returning to the crime scene.
“He has come in person to see what he has done,” he told the BBC, and “He’s come to see what he will be punished for.”
Sino-Russian Axis
In the present constellation of international relations, Sino-Russian relations is developing into more than mere friendship, partnership, strategic relationship, or even alliance.
The world today is divided into three basic groupings or constellations of states/powers:
- The Political ‘West’ comprises the United States, the U.K., NATO, the European Union.
It also loosely includes Japan and South Korea.
- The Sino-Russian Axis with the principals China and Russia, also includes Belarus and North Korea.
- The Global South of non-aligned, developing and least-developed countries.
The ostensible leaders are India, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil.
China and Russia are jointly developing a common approach to international politics and reject outright the American and the West’s rules-based world order.
The alliance or Axis is intended to signify a pivotal centre in world politics around which other states might cluster.
Xi Meets Putin in Moscow
Chinese leader Xi jinping flew to Moscow on Monday to meet with President Vladimir Putin in his first visit to Russia since Putin launched his devastating invasion of Ukraine more than a year ago.
The visit is seen by most analysts as a powerful show of Beijing’s support for Moscow in Western capitals [but also in other parts of the world], where leaders have grown increasingly wary of the two countries deepening partnership as war thunders on in Europe.
China’s foreign ministry confirmed that the war in Ukraine would be a core part of the talks.
Chinese officials have framed the trip as a mission of peace (NYT, March 20).
“China’s proposition boils down to one sentence, which is to urge peace and promote talks,” foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said (CNN/Meanwhile in China, March 17).
The visit comes as China presented itself as a neutral peace broker on Ukraine, including the recent release of a position paper calling for a political settlement on the armed conflict.
But the mediator claim has been met with skepticism by Western leaders, who point to China’s refusal to acknowledge the nature of the conflict amidst growing ties with Russia.
It is noteworthy that Xi has spoken to Putin multiple times since the invasion – both virtually and in person, but has not had a single phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky!
Significantly, Xi and Putin had declared a “no limits’ friendship in February last year [just before the invasion], when the Russian leader visited Beijing for the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics [it is inconceivable that Putin did not inform Xi about his forthcoming endeavor!].
Moreover, under Xi, China has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion – or even to refer to it as such, instead blaming NATO for provoking the conflict while amplifying the Kremlin’s mis- and disinformation campaign.
Beijing has also provided diplomatic support for Moscow, as well as strengthening economic and military ties by boosting trade and holding frequent joint military exercises.
Western officials are, therefore, wary whether Xi will add fuel to the full-scale war.
Russia: A Junior Partner?
Xi’s visit is one of those moments when one can almost see great-power politics shifting.
Since the war, Russia has grown weaker and more dependent on its bigger Asian neighbor – in terms of raw power, not size.
Not only is Russia suffering directly and immensely in Ukraine, it has become ever-more isolated diplomatically than before (Economist, March 19).
China: A Helping Hand?
In recent weeks Western officials have begun publicly raising grave concerns that China may be considering providing Russia with lethal military assistance, an accusation denied by Beijing.
Putin and Xi last held a virtual meeting in December, in which the Russian leader described relations between the two countries as “the best in history”, saying they could withstand all tests.”
They have also forged a close personal connection, with Xi describing Putin as a “best friend” in 2019. Xi has met Putin in person 39 times since becoming China’s leader, most recently in September last year during a summit in Central Asia (CNN).
Analysts thus maintain “Xi has adopted the guise of peacemaker, claiming he is on a mission to end the war to provide cover for efforts to strengthen his partnership with Mr. Putin” (NYT).
Ryan Hass, a former US diplomat and scholar at the Brooking’s Institution insists that China cannot serve as a fulcrum on which any Ukraine peace process could move.
Nabila Massrali, EU spokeswoman for foreign affairs and security policy argues succinctly that the Chinese position “builds on a misplaced focus on the so-called ‘legitimate security interests and concerns’ of parties, implying a justification for Russia’s illegal invasion, and blurring the roles of the aggressor and the aggressed.”
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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