By Our Reporter
When the political parties in Nepal are electing the new president on March 9, foreign powers increased their activities with frequent visits of American, EU, South Korean and Indian politicians and other officials to Nepal.
Three American officials, one each EU and South Korean high-level officials, have visited Nepal in less than a month. They met almost all Nepali leaders including the President, Prime Minister and party chairs during their stay in Kathmandu.
When the frequent visits of American officials were suspected to be an attempt to thwart the election of a communist leader in the post of president, the visit of Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra last week added fuel to the suspicion.
During his two-day stay in Kathmandu, he remained extremely busy meeting one leader after another. He called on President Bidya Devi Bhandari, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, UML Chairman KP Oli, Deputy Prime Ministers Narayan Kaji Shrestha and Rajendra Lingden, CPN (Unified Socialist) chair Madhav Kumar Nepal and Foreign Minister Dr Bimala Rai Paudyal among others.
He was rumoured to have met Prime Minister Prachanda twice, once for a courtesy call and another for a secret meeting.
Obviously, Kwatra’s focus was on the presidential election and it was evident from the comments made by CPN-UML chair Oli immediately after he and Kwatra met that the coalition might collapse after the presidential elections. It was after Kwatra’s visit that the Nepali Congress looked more enthusiastic about the presidential position because Kwatra and others might have told the leaders to elect non-communists in the top post.
When India and America want to check Chinese influence in Nepal, India wants to prevent Oli from reaching power, they have centred their activities to create an environment in which a non-communist may get elected to the post of president.
However, by allowing foreigners to meddle in internal affairs, the Nepali leaders have only weakened their decision-making power as well as the national sovereignty. The way the foreigners thronged Nepal just weeks before the presidential elections have proven that Nepal has, of late, become a parade ground for foreign forces.
Presidential election becoming tough
Just two days are left to file nominations for the post of President. However, the political parties have not finalised their candidate for the top post as of Wednesday. Although it is not clear who will be the next president, it is almost sure that the new president will not be from the CPN-UML, at least a ‘yes man’ of CPN-UML chairman KP Sharma Oli.
Moreover, there is a high risk of collapse of the present coalition of the CPN (Moist Centre) and the CPN-UML after or even before the election of the President. It is because CPN (MC) chair and Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ and other leaders have already given a clear message that they will not vote for Oli’s candidate in the presidential elections.
Prachanda and Oli have been holding marathon meetings to keep the coalition intact as per the agreement reached during the formation of the government on December 25 last year. The CPN-UML and the Maoist Centre had agreed to share the key posts in the afternoon of December 25 when Prachanda reached Balkot after NC denied giving him the post of the Prime Minister breaking the pre-election coalition. The two big communist parties and other five parties including Rastriya Prajatantra Party and Rastriya Swatantra Party forged an alliance and elected the prime minister, speaker and deputy speaker of the House of Representatives, and chief ministers and speakers of the provinces according to the deal.
But the foundation of the present coalition began shaking after the Nepali Congress gave the vote of confidence to Prime Minister Prachanda on January 10. The mistrust between Oli and Prachanda widened further after Oli picked his pocket man (Dev Raj Ghimire) for the post of Speaker and exerted pressure on Prachanda to reappoint Rabi Lamichhane to the post of Home Minister after he lost the position of the lawmaker because of the Supreme Court verdict of January 27. The situation worsened further when the UML-led government collapsed in Sudurpaschim after failing to garner a vote of confidence.
Shocked by Oli’s statement defending the dissolution of the House of Representatives in 2020 and 2021, and his effort to make Ishwar Pokharel a UML candidate for the post of the President, the CPN-Maoist Centre began improving its relations with the NC. Now Maoist Centre is almost sure to support the NC candidate for the post of President. Probably, Ram Chandra Paudel will be the new president because NC president Sher Bahadur Deuba has thrown his strength for Paudel because of the support he received from Paudel in the party’s 14th general convention.
But as politics does not move in a straight line, there are other risks associated with PM Prachanda’s plan. As Oli is the biggest strategist among contemporary politicians, he will try his best to thwart Prachanda’s plan to elect an NC leader for the post of President.
Rumours have already been rife that Oli is likely to forward Madhav Kumar Nepal as the candidate for the president so that the Prachanda-led government cannot prove its majority. But Nepal is not likely to accept the offer. On Tuesday Nepal said in Dang that he was not offered the post.
In case, Nepal becomes ready to be the candidate of Oli, and if the RPP and RSP continue to be with the UML, politics will take a new course. The UML and the CPN (Unified Socialist) will be unified and UML may become the largest party by stealing one independent lawmaker. As such, Oli will become the PM in the capacity of the largest party in case the Prachanda-led government collapses. However, Nepal may not become a puppet of Oli to fulfil his petty interest.
Instead, the pre-election alliance is likely to be revived with the RPP and all four Madhes-based parties joining the new alliance immediately after the presidential poll.
Be that as it may, the Indian micro-management cannot be ignored.
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