Review of World Politics (RWP)
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
“Consensus” on Nepal’s Foreign Policy?
According to various press reports, the coalition government of PM Sher Bahadur Deuba is now proposing to put forward a so-called “consensus” foreign policy. On paper, this looks quite attractive – which reasonable and rational person does not want concord, unanimity and harmony among the diverse ideological pushes and pulls of this disparate coalition.
Unfortunately, a nation’s foreign policy is not conducive to bargaining among the political parties – whether in government or opposition. The permutations and combinations among the constants and variables contributing to a nation’s foreign policy can be daunting to a layperson; a dilettante can cause havoc; and a traitor or quisling at the helm of affairs will be a catastrophe for the short and long term interests of the country.
In brief, the foreign policy of any country can be defined as “The activity whereby state actors act, react and interact.”
And national interest “refers to the basic determinants that guide state policy in relation to the external environment.”
In: Graham Evans/Jeffrey Newnham: Penguin Dictionary of International Relations, 1998.
Let us, therefore, recapitulate Nepal’s unique position.
The elements that constitute our foreign policy are a combination of constants and variables. The constants comprise:
- The Geo-Political Situation of Nepal
2. The Historical Background
3. The Size of the territory
The variables, which can ebb and flow, are:
4. Level & Nature of Economic Development
5. Social Structure & Cultural Movements
6. Government Structure & Governance
7. Country’s Leadership
8. Domestic Situation as a whole
9. Nepal’s Diplomacy
10. External Environment, including International Power Structure
Our current batch of leaders can do nothing to change Nepal’s geopolitical conundrum, which was recognized brilliantly by Prithvi Narayan Shah when the Nepali State was established by the Khas-Arya Voelker [people from the western hills, not only chhetris and bahuns]. There can be no diverting from his iron doctrine of ‘political equidistance between China and India’.
Historically, the rulers of the Emerald Valley as well as of the united Gorkha-Nepal have chosen to cultivate close relations with the great civilizations to the north and south. Our rulers would be nuts to change this course.
In spite of minor encroachments, our territory has remained stabilized after the Treaty of Sugauli with British India. Border adjustments can be made for mutual benefit, but cartographical aggression must be ruled out.
If we make positive increments to the variables of our foreign policy, we will enhance our overall stature in the international arena, as well as, consolidate and enhance our sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.
Since the Revolution of 1950-51, we have made great strides in economic, social and political development, with both the private and public sectors making significant contributions. However, much remains to be done. In some areas, it has been one step forward and two or more steps backwards.
Of particular concern has been the lack of visionary leadership – whether at the local, regional or central levels. This has hampered all-round development, particularly the nurturing of younger talent. Without going further afield, this is the malaise haunting all the countries of South Asia. It is also a question of endemic corruption, nepotism and favouritism.
If leaders like Narendra Modi of India, Imran Khan of Pakistan, Rajapaksa of Sri Lanka and Deuba of Nepal do not generate confidence in their own countries, i.e. ‘enjoy’ very little esteem or have poor public opinion, how is it possible that these countries rise in international stature? The only exception is that of the ‘Shangri-la of the Himalayas’ or Bhutan, where both the prime minister and the head of state enjoy exemplary reputations. They have been trailblazers in the time of the pandemic!
Diplomacy plays a vital role in the formulation and execution of Nepal’s foreign policy – adept diplomacy is, therefore, both the means and the end of a dynamic foreign policy. K.P. Sharma Oli played havoc with Nepal’s diplomacy, and unfortunately, Sher Bahadur Deuba is proceeding at a snail’s pace in making amends. His hands are being tied by anti-national and anti-social elements within and outside the government.
Why and how is it that such regressive regimes under King Mahendra and King Birendra could pursue such progressive and dynamic foreign policies? How could such a backward regime successfully campaign for a non-permanent seat in the executive UN Security Council or the nation’s foundational principle of Nepal as a Zone of Peace?
This brings us to the question of the ramifications of a political system on the formulation and execution of Nepal’s foreign policy, or the domestic environment.
There must be something rotten in the state if Deuba is unable to appoint a full council of ministers, let alone a foreign minister. The whole edifice of government is in shambles. Where is the head of state admonishing the government executive from getting on with the job? Why is parliament silent? Why is the judiciary encroaching on executive and legislative powers? The doctrine of the separation of powers has broken down. It was the so-called political elite that still has the effrontery to defend the indefensible. The republican setup and the federal structure was imposed upon the country and has turned out to be an unmitigated burden and total failure. It was imposed on the country by the Indian National Congress government of Sonia Gandhi, who was very inimical towards the Nepali monarchy, which was a symbol of Nepali nationalism. The emissary of the Indian establishment and presumptive ‘peacemaker’ Dr Karan Singh hoodwinked the then King Gyanendra.
The same can be said of the theory and practice of secularism in Nepal. It is a complete sham. In theory, Nepal is a secular state, but actually, it’s a majority Hindu state. Even the republican president takes part in significant, national and ritualistic Hindu festivals!
Nepal’s foreign policy cannot blossom if the necessary and sufficient conditions for a total overhaul of the current political system are not met.
Movement in German Election Campaign
The latest opinion poll for Germany’s leading tabloid Bild am Sonntag registered rising support for the Social Democratic Party (SPD), currently the junior partner in a grand coalition with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and their sister Bavarian party, the Christian Social Union (CSU) (Reuters, August 8).
The INSA poll put current support for the Social Democrats at 18 % percent, drawing level with the Green Party also at 18 % percent. The business-friendly Free Democratic Party (FDP) were at 12 % percent, Theoretically, the three parties could form a so-called “traffic light” coalition [based on the parties traditional colours: red-green-yellow] with 48 % percent voter support.
The poll put support for Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling conservative CDU/CSU at 26 percent. The far-right Alternative for Deutschland at 11 % percent and the far-left Linke Party at 7 % percent. Support for other parties totalled 8 % percent. Parties not surpassing the 5 % percent cannot enter the Bundestag [lower house of parliament].
Notionally, the Conservatives [CDU/CSU] could also form a coalition with the Greens and the FDP [26 + 18 + 12] with a comfortable 56% percent support, with other variables remaining constant. However, it would probably not reflect the mood of the German electorate.
There are less than two months to the general elections, but the CDU/CSU is in a downward spiral, whereas the SPD’s popular chancellor candidate, Olaf Scholz, who is also the current vice-chancellor (deputy PM) and finance minister has managed the impossible and turned things around for his party. A ‘snowball effect’ could also be in the works.
Armin Laschet, the conservative candidate to succeed Merkel as chancellor, has suffered a slump in personal support after he was recently recorded as seen laughing on a visit to a flood-stricken town in the southwest. For Germans, this was a definite sign that he lacked the necessary gravitas.
The INSA poll showed that in a hypothetical direct vote for chancellor, the SPD candidate Olaf Scholz was well ahead, with 27 % percent support – a five-point gain from the previous week. CDU’s Laschet languished at 14 % percent, just one point ahead of Green’s candidate, Ms Annalena Baerbock, at 13 % percent.
In a last-ditch effort, the Greens presented an “emergency climate protection programme” last Tuesday, aiming to reset their national election campaign after a series of unnecessary mistakes squandered their early surge in opinion polls.
Myanmar under Domestic & External Pressure
Protests against Myanmar’s current military government broke out across the nation last Sunday, the anniversary of the bloody suppression of the 1988 uprising against the previous army dictatorship.
At least six separate protests were documented on Facebook pages of opponents of the military junta, which seized power from the elected government six months ago and detained, Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, and several other key officials (Reuters, August 8).
The February 1, 2021 coup ended a brief decade-long experiment in nascent democracy [with ‘Burmese characteristics’] in the South-East Asian nation of 53 million [and ASEAN member], shattering hopes of many generations that it would emerge from more than a half-century of abject and oppressive military rule.
The new government led by Min Aung Hlaing, the military’s most senior general who assumed the post of the prime minister just a week ago [in order to ramp up the regime’s legitimacy], claims it acted within the constitution to remove Suu Kyi’s government after disputing the election [which her party won handsomely], even though the election commission declared the vote free and fair.
Many of Sunday’s protests referred to the “8-8-88” democracy uprising on August 8, 1988, which the then-military suppressed mercilessly. Opponents of the military say an estimated 3000 people, including many Buddhist monks, were killed during that crackdown. “The old debt from 88, we must get it all in this 21,” chanted protesters in Wundwin township in the Mandalay region. The 1988 uprising was at the time the biggest challenged to army rule that had lasted since 1962.
Myanmar’s UN Envoy Targeted
The United States on Saturday condemned a thwarted plot to attack Myanmar’s UN ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun, who rejected the military junta and chose instead to represent the elected civilian government [now underground]. A threat had been made against him and U.S. authorities had beefed up his security (Reuters, August 7).
Two Myanmar citizens have been charged in New York with allegedly plotting to kill Myanmar’s ambassador Tun. The duo are accused of conspiring with an arms dealer in Thailand who sells arms to the Myanmar military.
The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, said on Saturday that the threat “fits a disturbing pattern of authoritarian leaders and their supporters reaching across the globe…to persecute and repress journalists, activists, and others who dare speak or stand against them” (CNN, August 7).
Thomas-Greenfield cited Krystsina Tsimanouskaya, a Belarusian athlete who refused to return home from the Tokyo Olympics and sought refuge in Poland, and a prevented secret plan by several Iranians to kidnap a New York journalist and rights activist who was critical of Iran.
“These are only the most recent acts of translational repression, and they must be met with the condemnation of the world and with full and certain accountability,” she added.
Recent egregious acts by authoritarian states/governments on foreign soil were those of Russia, Saudi Arabia and Belarus.
The economy in Dire Straits
In the last six months, Myanmar has been crippled by an acute cash shortage. People have been unable to withdraw money from banks and ATMs. Because of severe mismanagement and draconian measures by the military, the country is plunging into a full-blown financial crisis (NYT, Aug. 9).
The Central Bank has started printing crisp new banknotes with Chinese help, but the junta is unlikely to print its way out of the trouble of its own making, according to Burmese economist and researcher U Hein Maung. He predicts the financial crisis will only worsen in the coming months and can only be resolved with political change.
ASEAN Diplomatic Initiative
In the latest development, the 10-member regional bloc ASEAN has finally appointed the special envoy tasked with ending post-coup violence and fostering talks between the military government and its opponents, who are myriad (Reuters, Aug. 8).
The new envoy, Brunei diplomat ErywanYusof, has declared he should be given full access to all conflict parties when he visits Myanmar, a trip that has not yet been scheduled, but is fraught with possibilities. In any case, the usurping Tatmadaw now face a daunting conundrum.
“Prolonged” Afghan Civil War Likely
A prolonged civil war in Afghanistan is more likely than a rapid Taliban conquest as the United States full military withdrawal nears, according to Ryan Crocker, a former U.S. ambassador in Kabul (AFP, Aug. 8).
The extremist Islamist insurgents have seized five provincial capitals since Friday in a lightning offensive – resembling a blitzkrieg – almost a month before the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks that sparked the American-led invasion to hunt down Osama bin Laden and his al Quaeda.
Ryan Crocker was of the opinion: “A prolonged civil war is a more likely outcome than a swift Taliban takeover of the entire country. They’re being very smart about this. They’re not launching major strikes into Kabul” (ABC/AFP).
On Friday, the mujahideen captured their first provincial capital, Zaranj in southwestern Nimroz on the border with Iran, and followed it up by taking Sherberghan in northern Jawzjan province the next day (AFP, Aug. 8).
Fighting was also reported on the outskirts of Herat in the west, and Lashgar Gah and Kandahar in the south. The pace of Taliban advances has caught government forces by surprise, but they won some respite late Saturday after US warplanes bombed Taliban positions in Sherbeghan.
These U.S. airstrikes are the only saving grace in Biden’s bankrupt Afghan policy.
Sherberghan is the stronghold of notorious Afghan warlord Abdul Rashid Rostum, whose militias and government forces were reportedly retreating east to Mazar-i-Sharif in Balkh province.
Kunduz, Sar-e-pul and Taloqan in the north fell within hours of each other Sunday confirmed lawmakers, security sources and residents. The Afghan security forces were anyway overstretched. It remains to be seen whether the Taliban can hold on to their conquests, and if so, also provide good governance.
UN warns of ‘unprecedented’ Afghan civilian deaths from Taliban offensives
Kunduz is the most significant Taliban gain since the militants launched an offensive in May as U.S. and NATO forces began the final stages of their unilateral withdrawal. It has been a perennial target for the Taliban, who briefly overran the city in 2015 and again in 2016 but never managed to hold it for long.
Crocker said of the Taliban: “They’re doing what they’re doing in part to create a climate of fear and panic. They are succeeding wonderfully.” He could not envisage any circumstance under which the U.S. would send its troops back. President Biden had made it crystal clear that the U.S. was going out and are staying out. However, he was extremely critical of this wrongheaded policy: “He owns it. It’s already an indelible stain on his presidency.”
The Taliban seized a sixth Afghan province capital Monday. Insurgents entered Aibak in Samangan province without a fight as government forces retreated to avoid a massacre in the city (AFP, Aug. 9).
Because of Biden’s strategic blunder the seemingly inevitable is now taking place. America’s war has apparently ended, but the Afghan people have been saddled with a gruesome civil war, not of their own making.
As CNN’s Nick Paton Walsh writes so evocatively: “History has repeated itself so many times already for Afghans, they are beyond farce [alluding to Karl Marx’ famous quote] now. The enduring question of the next months is whether the West [now with ‘the look of consternation and confusion’ at the utter collapse of their ‘flawless strategy’] – faced with the discomfort of the apparently inevitable happening – decides to change course if it is not too late” (Aug. 9).
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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