Review of World Politics [RWP]
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Nepal’s Deuba: A Man of Mettle?
Sher Bahadur Deuba from Nepal’s Far West – a backward region in the national perception and himself ridiculed as an accidental prime minister in his fifth tenure, inadvertently and suddenly is faced with a tricky question of national pride – not narrow nationalism, but pure blue-blood patriotism. How he handles what is now known as the Darchula incident or damnable or dilemma will probably make or break him. Surely, he now finds himself between a rock and a very hard place!
He can, of course, go the timid way of most Nepali politicians and bury his head in the sand and ignore the whole affair. He can also go through the motions of doing something, but actually do nothing – also the hallmark of a typically Nepali politician. All in all, he would – again like most Nepali politicians – bow down to superior Indian interests. Will he accept the diktat of the Plenipotentiary/Resident/Amban in Lazimpat?
But this time around, there is something in the air. The whole damn thing will just not go away. Five student unions have already submitted a memorandum to Deuba demanding action, including summoning the Indian ambassador to the foreign ministry seeking clarification. Deuba is at a crossroads. If he does nothing or makes the wrong decisions, this may come to haunt him, sooner than later. The people of Nepal’s West and the country at large surely will not forget such a blatant act of inhumanity on the Indian side, and the meek response from the Nepalese side.
The facts of the matter are quite clear. However, the general background and atmosphere around the bilateral Indo-Nepalese borders – in the East with Sikkim and West Bengal, to the South with Bihar and Uttar Pradesh and in the West with Uttarkhand must be discussed. This has been an uninterrupted litany of unilateral highhandedness and harassment of peaceful Nepalese by arrogant, deceitful Indian bureaucrats, soldiers and police on the other side of the borders.
Keeping this past history in mind, we must consider the events that unfolded in the early morning of last Friday, July 30 – the veritable “Black Friday”.
The local resident Jaya Singh Dhami, 33, was attempting to cross the raging Mahakali River – the border between India and Nepal – from the Indian [western] side to the Nepali side [eastern bank]. But he was not using a bridge or even a boat, for none existed. No, he was using the traditional tuin, found all over Nepal where there are no bridges, an improvised cable crossing.
As Dhami was about to reach the Nepali bank of the river, a member of India’s “Seema Suraksha Bal” [SSB/Armed Border Force] just removed the mooring of the cable from the tree stump where it was attached on the Indian side. The inevitable happened: Dhami fell into the river and was carried away.
The incident was observed by many from the Nepali side, who even shouted and pleaded not to detach the cable. But all this fell on deaf ears.
This was not a case of making up things. The facts of the matter are clear. It is an open-and-shut case of wantonly and purposefully not only of willfully endangering the life of another human being, not manslaughter, but the unlawful premeditated killing of a Nepali national. This time around, the SSB must not be allowed to get away with outright murder.
In the past, protestations and negotiations have come to nought. The Indian standpoint is that law and rights are always on their side. Thus, they can trample on treaties, shift border markers, capture no man’s land and even sovereign Nepali territory, at their sweet will. What say the vociferous proponents of “special relations”?
The Government of Nepal (GooN) must demand full compensation for Dhami’s family [mother and two small children], who were solely dependent on him. The retired soldier of the Nepal Army was on his way back to Qatar, where he had been working as a security guard until the pandemic broke out.
The country is watching Deuba see if he can make a decisive decision on what appears to be a trifling matter but is a question of life and death for a family and small kids, and in a broader sense of national honour for the country as a whole.
Afghanistan: Bleak Prospects
The U.S. Congress’s independent watchdog on Afghanistan has concluded in its latest report that Afghanistan “remains poor, aid-dependent, and conflict-affected.” And this is despite the United States spend at least US $ Dollar 837 billion on the country over two decades. The report added that the Covid-19 pandemic hampers Afghanistan’s prospects for economic growth (CFR/Council on Foreign Relations, Daily Brief, July 29).
This grim accounting comes as the U.S. prepares to complete a full withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan by the end of August this very year.
The $ 837 billion the U.S. spent on fighting and reconstructing does not include billions more spent on intelligence, veterans’ benefits and financial aid.
The report also described the Taliban’s recent rapid military gains as an “existential crisis” for the Afghan government.
Meanwhile, the Taliban pursued its two-pronged strategy [military & political] by increasing its regional diplomacy, meeting with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi. The Chinese were now hedging their bets.
The members of the Afghan government were burying their heads in the sand, according to Kate Clark and Obaid Ali of the “Afghanistan Analysts Network” – while the Taliban were planning for the US withdrawal [after Trump’s infamous deal with them], the Afghan government failed to consider what a post-US engagement would look like or even prepare for it. “Indeed, the Afghan elites have behaved as if they did not believe that the US would ever actually leave.”
However, the Biden administration followed up on Trump’s pusillanimous appeasement policy and continued ‘negotiations’ with the Taliban and presented the Afghan government with a fait accompli.
Seth G. Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies set out cogently in Foreign Affairs the ways and means out of the morass [of Trump’s making, but reinforced by Biden]:
“Preventing catastrophe – a complete Taliban victory and the reestablishment of terrorist havens – depends on what the United States does now. Without overt U.S. military forces on the ground, the next best way to avoid the worst outcomes in Afghanistan and minimize the downsides of a withdrawal is through a strategy focused on supporting Afghan security forces and striking terrorists” [Foreign Affairs. For an overview of Jones’ superb exposition see last week’s The People’s Review].
It is now crystal clear that the current Afghan government is being left to its own devices. All the very friendly neighbouring countries surrounding this land-locked country, are now looking at their own national interests and have virtually recognized the Taliban as the up and coming political force – as the equal to the government, if not soon to be force majeure.
It is as if the neighbours have ganged up against Afghanistan – friends have transformed themselves into virtual enemies – there is no word for it.
The Afghan security forces are now against the wall. Hundreds of commandos were deployed in the western city of Herat while authorities in the southern city of Lashkar Gah called for more troops to rein in the assaults even as Afghan airstrikes left scores dead on the streets. Flights out of Kandahar, the country’s second-largest city and the former stronghold of the extreme insurgents were temporarily suspended after Taliban rockets hit the runway (AFP, Aug. 1).
Myanmar Military Sitting Tight
Myanmar marked the six-month anniversary of the coup by the Tatmadaw [military] last Sunday. The military dictator, Gen. Min Aung Hliang has now taken on the role of prime minister in a newly formed ‘caretaker government’, but the darkness and despair have not abated.
As a minister of the opposition shadow government pointedly stated, this was just a crude attempt to attain international recognition and legitimacy. The regime remains a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Small groups of students took to the streets in Mandalay, the country’s second-largest city to protest the military’s takeover on February 1 and the expungement of its nascent democracy. Students rode motorbikes around Mandalay waving red and green flags, saying they rejected any possibility of talks with the Tatmadaw (DW/ Deutsche Welle, July 31). There have been similar protests in Yangon, the commercial capital.
Close to 7,000 people have been arrested and around 1,000 have been killed by the junta.
New York-based Human Rights Watch has accused the junta of perpetrating violent attacks that amounted to “crimes against humanity”, including murder, enforced disappearance, torture, rape and other sexual violence, severe deprivation of liberty and other inhumane acts. These offences against the population were systematic and reflected broader government policy rather than actions of individual security personnel.
Several of Myanmar’s powerful ethnic rebel groups have opposed and clashed with the Tatmadaw since the coup.
On the international front, the Western powers, especially the U.S., have not undertaken much against the junta, besides ramping up sanctions on businesses linked to the military.
The UN Security Council continues to be stalemated [as with other problems] with vetoes by permanent members China and Russia preventing the executive organ from adopting robust resolutions to address the crisis.
ASEAN at an Impasse
The international community placed its hopes on this South-East Asian multinational organization, but it was misplaced. It is too disparate – consisting of a one-party Communist state, authoritarian regimes and countries at various stages of ‘democracy’ — to operate effectively.
In a televised address, the junta boss Gen Min Aung Hliang said Myanmar was ready to work on ASEAN cooperation within the ASEAN framework including the dialogue with the proposed Special Envoy in Myanmar (Reuters, Aug. 1).
ASEAN diplomats say they aim to finalise a special envoy tasked with ending violence and promoting dialogue between the junta and its opponents. If the junta is really sincere, why is it not accepting the special UN envoy?
For all intents and purposes, the junta is trying delaying tactics. Its policy during the pandemic towards its own people has been horrifying.
Belarus Opposition Attempts to Unsaddle Lukashenko
US President Joe Biden met last week with Belarus opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya at the White House, in a strong show of support for pro-democracy protesters who maintain she won last year’s presidential election.
Biden said: “The United States stands with the people of Belarus in their quest for democracy and universal human rights.” Tikhanovskaya, on a tour of the U.S. aimed at raising international pressure to bring down strongman dictator Alexander Lukashenko, called the meeting “an inspiration for our people” (AFP, July 29).
Belarussian authorities have used force to put down demonstrations against Lukashenko’s iron-fisted rule and have been trying to snuff out remaining dissent, recently jailing university students and raiding the homes of journalists.
In May, Belarus even illegally forced down a civilian aeroplane from Greece to Lithuania, citing a bogus security threat, and arrested a prominent opposition journalist and his girlfriend who were passengers.
Belarus would not hesitate to invite Russian troops if needed, Lukashenko said last Friday, although there was no need for them now. He also claimed that Belarus had coped with the unrest without any external forces and could muster around 500,000 strong, united and compact armed forces in a short period of time (Reuters, July 30). It was just a show of bravado from an all-around hated autocrat [like in Myanmar].
American-Indian Entente Cordiale
Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited New Delhi for meetings with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, External Affairs Minister SubrahmanyamJaishankar, and civil society representatives. This highlighted the U.S. focus on India as a strategic partner [just short of being an ally and replacing arch-enemy Pakistan for the role in South Asia]. Blinken’s visit comes amid a push to deepen the U.S. partnership with India, which America sees as most vital to countering China’s influence in the “Indo-Pacific” [comprising the vast landmass from the Suez Canal to Japan, and incorporating all the regions bordering the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific], (CFR, July 28),
The U.S. has implicitly thrown down the gauntlet to China. The U.S. would very much like India to be a more active member of “the Quad” [the quadrilateral quasi-alliance of the U.S., Japan, India and Australia which has essentially contained China in the Asian landmass], but Modi, the Swami is playing the reluctant bride!
In the new re-alignment of the balance of power in South Asia, Nepal is uniquely and strategically placed to play a key role, if only it had the necessary statesman and diplomats. Thus, Blinken did not find it worthwhile to fly on to the Emerald Valley – so near, yet so far! Moreover, there is no one to talk to and nothing to talk about.
Blinken and Jaishankar discussed the war in Afghanistan, business ties, and boosting Covid-19 efforts. Prior to the meetings, a U.S. official said the secretary of state would express concerns over New Delhi’s human rights record [but surely not too forcefully!].
His trip follows visits to India by U.S. Defense Secretary Gen. (retd.) Lloyd Austin and Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry. PM Modi is scheduled to visit the U.S. later this year for an in-person summit with the leaders of the Quad. India stands to gain immensely from the Quad-membership. The security dividend will be significant, especially regarding the disputed borders to China and Pakistan. It is already benefiting from U.S. arms transfers. It will now be able to confront China with more confidence.
The writer can be reached at:shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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