From Far & Near: Review of International Affairs – August 2020 II

Review of International Affairs – August 2020 II

Beirut Inferno
New Pakistan Political Map
Dynasty Politics in Sri Lanka
Trump’s Doomsday Book

By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

Aftermath of Massive Beirut Explosion

Lebanon forms part of ancient Phoenicia which was the centre of an intrepid and widespread international trading system. The Phoenicians also contributed the so-called Latin script to humanity.

In the aftermath of the massive explosion in Beirut’s city port last Tuesday, furious demonstrations have broken out. Police fired volleys of tear gas and rubber bullets intentionally and unprovoked. The once vibrant Lebanese capital – once called the ‘Paris of the East’ – was teetering on the brink of fearsome violence, with some reports suggesting the police had used live ammunition (The Telegraph, London, August 9).

A group of about 200, including retired army officers, stormed the foreign ministry, proclaimed it to be the new headquarters of the ‘revolution’ and called on the government to resign. Within a matter of hours, over 130 people were injured in the clashes, according to the Lebanese Red Cross, that has now taken the lead in the humanitarian response.

Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab made the empty promise that he would request early parliamentary elections to diffuse the escalating political crisis that had already reached explosive levels. In fact, the political rot was so far advanced that it requires a Hercules to clean out the Augean stables.

Prime Minister Diab made the lame excuse that he was not to blame for the country’s deep economic and political woes that predates the coronavirus pandemic, which has, of course, exacerbated the already volatile situation.

But the people of Lebanon did know whom to blame for the country’s miserable situation, which was epitomized by Tuesday’s inferno.

Ahead of last Saturday’s march on Martyr’s Square, protesters had built gallows and hung nooses around the necks of cardboard cutouts of Lebanon’s political elites.

And within minutes of the start of the demonstrations, police fired tear gas at several thousands of peaceful demonstrators as they marched toward the parliamentary building. Men, women and children marched through the destroyed streets of the city brandishing sweeping brushes and nooses as they called for the downfall of the Lebanese government.

Lebanese leaders have been accused of gross negligence by failing to store safely around 2750 metric tons of impounded ammonium nitrate [a chemical fertilizer, which can also be used to produce explosives] in Beirut’s port before it exploded, unleashing a massive shock wave that wrecked nearly half the city.

The deadly blast was responsible for 160 dead and more than 6,000 injured, and leaving more than 300,000 homeless! Not for nothing has public outrage grown exponentially.

When protests first broke out on October 17, 2019, it was filled with the spirit of hope, now it’s complete naked anger. The Lebanese people can take it no more.

There was the general feeling that the government wouldn’t do a damn thing. There was an urgent need to help those affected. But the people didn’t have any trust whatsoever in the government, or in any of the institutions – not even in the police, nor the army!

Young women stood on the roof of cars that were destroyed in the blast denouncing Lebanon’s former warlords, who are now senior politicians [including the president]. Ambulances had rushed to take the wounded to Lebanon’s already overwhelmed dib

People from all over the country had descended on Beirut to join a mass clean-up mission in the face of glaring state inaction.

Even before the explosion brought Beirut to its knees, things by chance crises and widespread endemic corruption.

The tragedy has already prompted several prominent MPs to resign from the Lebanese parliament – but this is not, of course, enough.

Finally, one week after the deadly blast, PM Diab and his entire government resigned. The cabinet now assumes a caretaker role until a new government is formed. This will not do much to ease the people’s grief and anger (Sky News, August 11).

For most across Lebanon, the entire political system needs to be replaced. The entire establishment is to blame for the crumbling infrastructure, widespread corruption and a sectarianism that has stifled progress and blocked real reform.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Beirut last week was a great success. At an online donor summit that he arranged, international donors have pledged a quarter of a billion euros in immediate aid. At the same time, they called for urgent reforms.

As the former mandatory power, France has no choice but to assume the leading role, perhaps under UN auspices, to coordinate both international aid and domestic reforms.

Change is in the air – the explosion was the last straw.

Sri Lanka: Rajapaksa Family Cements Political Power

“Serendib” is the ancient Arabic name of Sri Lanka and conjures up an exotic and lush tropical island of lions. However, it is not by ‘serendipity’ – the fact of finding interesting or valuable things by chance – that the lions of modern day Sri Lanka have risen to the pinnacles of power!

Sri Lanka’s former President Mahinda Rajapaksa was sworn in as the prime minister for the fourth time on Sunday after his party – the Sri Lanka People’s Front – secured a landslide victory in parliamentary elections that cemented his family’s hold on power in the strategic island nation – athwart crucial trading sea lanes of the Indian Ocean (AP/Associated Press, August 9).

Mahinda Rajapaksa, 75, took the office from his younger brother, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, himself the President of the ‘Democratic Socialist Republic’, at a prominent Buddhist temple on the outskirts of the capital Colombo.

Mahinda R. served as the nation’s president from 2005-2015 and is highly popular among the ethnic majority Sinhalese for ending the country’s 25-year civil war [widely characterized by military experts as ‘unwinnable’] against the Tamil rebels – the ‘Tamil Tigers’ – in 2009. This was only possible by the influx of sophisticated Chinese weapons in generous amounts.

The Sri Lanka People’s Front – the party led by the Rajapaksa brothers – won 145 seats in the 225-member parliament in the election last Wednesday. Its main opposition only obtained 54 seats. A party representing ethnic minority Tamils won 10 seats, and 16 other seats were split among 12 smaller parties.

The victory gave the Rajapaksa brothers nearly the two-thirds majority of seats required to make constitutional changes that could strengthen dynastic rule in the country – and usher in the family’s chokehold on political power.

This time around, an unprecedented five members of the Rajapaksa family have been elected as lawmakers – Mahinda R. himself, his son Namal, his eldest brother Chamal and his son Sashindra, and a nephew, Nipuna Ranawaka.

The brothers need 150 seats [out of 225] to be able to amend the constitution. Since at least four smaller parties have already signalled their intention to collaborate with the SLPF, the Rajapaksa party appears to have mustered that support.

However, this will not be plain sailing, as it presupposes a high degree of fraternal and mutual understanding. Any attempt by Gotabaya R., the president, to push for changes that will strengthen presidential powers at the expense of the prime minister may trigger sibling rivalry.

Sri Lanka had been ruled by powerful executive presidents since 1978. But a 2015 constitutional amendment strengthened parliament and the prime minister – ushering in parliamentary democracy of the Westminster model. It also put independent commissions in control of judiciary appointments, police, public services and the conduct of elections.

Gotabaya R. was elected president last November after projecting himself as the only leader who could uphold the country’s national security after the Islamic State-inspired bombings of churches and hotels on Easter Sunday 2019 that killed 269 people – a major intelligence/security lapse. After all, he had served in the Sri Lanka army for 20 years and was the secretary in the Ministry of Defence spearheading the actions against the Tamil Tigers. Since being elected, he has complained that he had to work under many constraints because of the constitutional changes.

However, Mahinda R. is unlikely to be willing to cede any of his prime ministerial powers that might shrink his influence as he works on promoting his son Namal as heir apparent. Namal and the other three elected members of the family are likely in any case to control key functions of the new administration.

Mahinda R. is known to be extremely superstitious, wearing many talismans and lucky charms, including valuable rings with gemstones, earning him the epithet: ‘Lord of the Rings’. Once during his political career when faced with imminent electoral defeat, he is also alleged to have attempted a coup d’etat but was repulsed by the then army chief of staff.

In the meantime, the political ‘cohabitation’ model after the French political system will function smoothly as the Rajapaksa family consolidates their power. Already the landslide victory has raised fears of weakening government institutions such as the independent commissions.

Pakistan’s Foray into ‘Cartographic Adventurism’

On the eve of the abrogation of Article 370 and Jammu & Kashmir’s [J &K ] special status by the Modi government, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan released a ‘new political map’ in which the provinces of Khyber Pakhtuniskhwa, Punjab, Balochistan and Sind, as well as the erstwhile princely state of Kashmir are depicted as sovereign Pakistani territory.

Strangely enough, the eastern part of J&K , i.e. Ladakh is shown without a boundary. Is this ambivalent gesture to placate China?

The map depicts J&K as “Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir” and “Disputed Territory – Final Status will be decided in line with UNSC resolutions.”

For good measure, in an insert, the former princely state of Junagadh in the Cutch peninsula, Gujarat is also shown as a part of Pakistan – as exclave.

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) – true to form – overreacted and took a narrow legalistic viewpoint: “This is an exercise in political absurdity, laying untenable claims to [Indian] territory…These ridiculous assertions have neither legal validity nor international credibility,” adding “In fact, this new effort only confirms the reality of Pakistan’s obsession with territorial aggrandizement supported by cross-border terrorism.”

According to the Hindustan Times, playing the Devil’s advocate, the move may have been prompted to appease domestic political sentiments, but is nevertheless fraught with serious implications, none of them good for Pakistan (August 5).

The paper self-righteously implies that the rash action resulted in an ‘own goal’ as it sounds a death knell to the self-determination movement in the Vale of Kashmir as Islamabad has now co-opted J & K, leaving no space for either a plebiscite [as originally promised by Jawaharlal Nehru] or [theoretically] an independent J & K.

At the same time, the paper also implied that Pakistan had been ‘inspired’ by Nepal’s move on May 21 when it “issued a map to emphasize its illegal claims to Lipulekh, Limiyadhura [sic] and Kalapani in India’s Uttarakhand.”

Unfortunately, this is merely twisting facts to hide India’s naked aggression. The pure fact is that India was given permission to establish a military observation post in Kalapani [but overstaying their welcome], but not to secretly construct a so-called ‘pilgrimage’ road through sovereign Nepalese territory. India also colluded with China to establish a check-post for trade and pilgrimage in Nepal’s Lipulekh. The way forward can only be flexibility and willingness for compromise!

From the point of view of ‘political realism’ in international relations, nothing has changed substantially on the ground in J & K and nothing is likely to change. The United Nations Security Council is not about to handle a hot potato like J & K.

If the three parties to the J & K conflict – India, Pakistan and China – want to usher in peace and tranquility in the Himalaya-Karakorum region, they would have to recognize the current status quo of the — de facto internal borders – the Line of Control and the Line of Actual Control – as the legitimate international borders.

U.S. History Professor Predicts Trump Defeat

To the consternation of incumbent president Donald J. Trump, American University, Washington, D.C. professor Alan Lichtman told CNN host Michael Smerconish that his fool-proof analytic system predicts Trump will lose the White House this year (CNN, Sunday, August 9).

Prof. Lichtman has developed a system – the 13 factor [unlucky for Trump] ‘Lichtman Mantra’ – that has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1984.

The ‘Lichtman Mantra’ is based on broad, structural concepts he developed by studying every presidential election 1860-1980, and corroborated since then.

Trump has already reached a negativity in the plurality of the following criteria, thus anticipating his political demise: