From Far & Near
Review of International Affairs – July 2020 II
By Shashi P.B.B. Malla
Crisis of the Nepali Communist Party: Quo Vadis Nepal
Before the Covid-19 Pandemic
The electoral stunt of the United Marxists-Leninists Communists (UML-CPN) and the Maoists of forming an electoral alliance was a master stroke and enabled them to achieve a two-thirds majority in parliament. But it also hoodwinked the Nepalese people, because it was only a ploy to achieve and retain political power, not to serve the people. Pushpa Kamal Dahal, one of the architects of this tactical move [which also floored the then main party, Nepali Congress] vainly boasted that the Communists would now retain power for the next 50 years! And this from a Quisling!
Their government did not achieve much even before the Covid-19 pandemic broke out.
The CPN became a power machine to loot the country to the roots. The situation has even become more dire than during the rank rapacity of Rana rule. The misrule of CPN “Oli-garchy” will be second to none.
Under authoritarian, Communist “Oli-garchy”, there are no longer ‘good’ or ‘bad’ Communists, at least in Nepal – only corrupt Communists. Thus, today “Loktantra” [= peoples’ rule] has acquired a very bitter taste. Even Lincoln’s good, old dictum has been unconditionally debased. It is now government ‘of the Commies’, ‘by the Commies’, ‘for the Commies’!
Don’t look for succor from the President of the Republic. Bidya Devi Bhandari has become completely expendable and is nothing more and nothing less than Oli’s/government’s handmaiden. The presidency is no longer a neutral or independent institution.
Response to the Pandemic
But now their response has been catastrophic. Like US President Donald Trump, Oli has been allowed free reign to make unscientific statements, and government policies have been below par. At the same time, Oli has made a fool of himself and the country.
The main opposition party the Nepali Congress is also complicit. Deuba and Poudel should step down and allow the next generation to step up. Why are the ‘Young Turks’ not rising to the occasion?
Instead of good governance and policy implementation, precious time has been taken up with party squabbles.
The cosy virtual meeting of the CPN with their Chinese comrades has not helped matters. The personal, personnel and ideological differences remain unresolved. The unity process between the two parties/factions has not even been completed, but the so-called ‘united’ party is now heading for a veritable split. There is little that Chinese ambassador Hou Yanqi can do to save the corrupt comrades!
The CPN also faces ideological bankruptcy — the CPN may be Leninist-Stalinist-Maoist, but definitely not Marxist. The great German thinker Karl Marx must be turning in his grave! The power-hungry, dishonest, unscrupulous, unprincipled, double-dealing, bribable and shady Communists will never ever be able to realize his vision of a just society: “From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs.”
Oli tried to play to nationalist sentiment and the so-called China card in the Kalapani border dispute, but this exploded in their faces.
Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels will forgive us for slightly changing their context: “A spectre is haunting Nepal – the spectre of Communism” [!]
The Way Forward
In this dismal situation, the long-suffering Nepali people have no other alternative than to revolt again and throw out the oppressors. There is the pandemic to overcome and to plan for a better, brighter and sustainable tomorrow. There are also many unsolved questions.
Basically, we have to be united on what is necessary and what can be realistically achieved. We have to be pro-active and not re-active to what our current Commie rulers and would-be ‘maharajas’ undertake.
Until now a knight in shining armour has not yet emerged. But people also expect a more robust reaction from leaders of civil society, especially the elder statesmen – they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by taking ‘the peoples’ side’ – above all eternal gratitude, since ‘we have nothing to lose, but our chains’!
Everyone can contribute to the new awakening – ‘the Rato – Nilo – Seto’ revolution [our national colours of the national flag!]…the youth demonstrating on the streets…the elderly supporting by banging pots and pans from the rooftops…the security forces remaining neutral until the peoples’ success, elder statesmen encouraging at every step to convert the ‘summer of discontent’ into the ‘summer of freedom from the Communist yoke’!
We have to mobilize everyone who can make a meaningful contribution, including social media experts. The main point is that the mass, non-violent protests remain peaceful at every stage and at every level! Jokes and satire can be very subtle weapons [former Soviet Union].Skits from Madan Krishna Shrestha & Hari Bangsa Acharya could be a major contribution.
The hour has also come to stop the looting and bring back the Maoists’ ill-gotten gains stashed in Swiss banks.
The Sino-Indian Conflict in the Context of the Sino-American New Cold War
The Sino-Indian border dispute is more than it seems. The bloody clashes of June 15 in Ladakh are a milestone in their bilateral relations and marks the point when their geo-strategic rivalry for mastery in the South Asian region and the larger Indian Ocean area finally broke out into the open.
The deadly brawl on the Himalayan/Karakorum border last month could have been the result of a miscalculation on China’s part regarding India’s rise, according to South China Morning Post (SCMP) analyst Shi Jungtao (July 5).
Beijing was too pre-occupied with tensions with Washington on multiple fronts and underestimated the sudden confrontation with India. The realization of possibly having to fight a hot war on two fronts could have prompted the Chinese leadership to back down on the south-western Himalayan front.
Most observers are clear that decades of talks and negotiations have failed to bridge the trust deficits and misperceptions between the two nuclear-armed Asian behemoths.
Until then, China’s attention was wholly concentrated on the new Cold War with trade matters and the Covid-19 as tensions on its troubled Himalayan border with India was brewing and then suddenly erupted on June 15 in the deadliest brutal clash in over a half century. It also raised the question of Indian victimhood with relatives of slain Indian soldiers [now: martyrs] claiming that they were ‘unarmed’.
This fatal skirmish rubbed salt into an old wound that has just refused to heal since the October/November 1962 border war that was disastrous and most humiliating for India and the Indian psyche.
The ‘June 15 incident’ also brought to the fore China’s strategic calculations on the rise of India.
It raised the question [not only academic] about the possibility of armed conflicts between nuclear powers becoming a modern-day manifestation of the concept of the ‘Thucydides Trap’ [named after the famed Greek historian Thucydides and his History of the Peloponnesian War, 431 – 404 BC].
This much debated, but controversial concept, which was coined by Harvard professor Graham Allison in reference to the possibility of military confrontations when a rising [smaller] power threatens a dominant and hegemonic one – starting with Athens versus Sparta in Ancient Greece.
In the post old-Cold War era, this was usually reserved to describe the superpower showdown between China and the United States. Now India perceives itself as a great power and part of the new equation.
The two countries have – to all intents and purposes – signaled their interest in de-escalation and agreed to disengagement modalities last week. However, there have been no tangible signs so far that heightened tensions will dissipate soon. The mass and social media of both countries are in jingoistic mode. And last week, in a show of nationalistic strength, Modi visited ‘his’ troops in the disputed frontier!
In fact, both sides have instead taken steps to amass large numbers of troops, weapons and materiel along their own perceptions of the un demarcated de facto border or so-called ‘Line of Actual Control’ (LAC).
On the face of it, “it would be a nightmarish scenario for Beijing to ratchet up tensions and further alienate New Delhi in the face of worsening ties with Washington and the biggest international backlash in decades over China’s diplomatic overreach and its culpability in the coronavirus pandemic” (SCMP).
In China’s foreign policy agenda, President Xi Jinping had accorded high importance to China’s relations with India, especially those pertaining to the periphery — the crucial Karakorum-Himalaya axis [Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar]. Together with his top diplomats, he sought to elevate the bilateral ties to an unprecedented level in the past years.
With India’s rise as a regional force, the balance of power between India and Pakistan has now shifted overwhelmingly in India’s favour. It has transformed itself, also economically, from a bumbling giant in South Asia to a pan-Asiatic power. It strives to be equal with China, while the latter wants to preserve the hierarchical order.
Perhaps China’s perception of India from a possible partner to a rival changed matters. India’s emerging alliance with the U.S. and security cooperation with Australia and Japan – the so-called ‘Quad’ – is decisive. This is a formidable alliance in the making – economically, diplomatically and militarily – in the containment of China from the East China Sea of the Western Pacific, through the South China Sea to the entrance to the Red Sea of the Indian Ocean.
India is thus all set to pose an increased challenge to China at sea. Last week, the Indian Navy and the Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force held a joint exercise in the Indian Ocean. India has already held regular bilateral exercises or ‘war games’ with the U.S. Japan and Australia, thus forming a ‘quasi-alliance’.
In the meantime, in a show of strength, both the US and China held drills/exercises/war games in the hotly disputed South China Sea. The US military said the exercises with two aircraft carriers and their strike groups, are a response to Beijing’s rising assertiveness and it will not be intimidated by China.
A retired PLA naval officer, Wang Yunfei asserted that China will not waver in safeguarding its interests. The Global Times wrote the sea is fully in the PLA’s grasp [=equivalent to a Chinese lake!] (SCMP, July 6).
The East China Sea also remains tense with unintended encounters between the Chinese and Japanese navies in and around the disputed island chain.
Over land for China there is an enormous economic interest at stake. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – opposed by India – a series of infrastructure projects funded by Chinese bank loans is a flagship project of China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and a top priority for China. Hostilities can only disrupt the smooth functioning.
China is also dependent on the safety of the vital maritime trade routes through the South China Sea, the Malacca Strait and the Indian Ocean to Europe.
With its allied partners, India now has a dominant role in the Indian Ocean. Its Andaman and Nicobar Islands control the approaches to the Malacca Strait. Its geo-strategic location means that it also enjoys air superiority in the South Asian region and the Indian Ocean.
All in all, therefore, a violent confrontation between China and India is the worst possible scenario for all concerned.
The writer can be reached at: shashipbmalla@hotmail.com
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