By Deepak Joshi Pokhrel
Last week, we witnessed a worrisome incident in Dewangunj, Sunsari District, that raised the eyebrows of every Nepali. What began as a local dispute quickly snowballed into a national headline, with reports of communal violence. The Prime Minister addressed the nation, committing to bring the culprits to justice and provide compensation to the victims.
While this news dominated the headlines, New Delhi officially extended a formal invitation to Nepal’s Prime Minister to visit India. The announcement was made by the spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, Randhir Jaiswal, during a regular press briefing. Immediately, political observers and the public began sharing their views across both traditional and social media on whether Balen would accept New Delhi’s invitation and visit India.
Ever since Nepal restored democracy in 1990, there has been an unwritten convention for a newly elected prime minister to visit India soon after assuming office. With only a few exceptions, this practice has been followed by Nepal’s prime ministers, regardless of their political affiliation.
In March 2026, the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP), under the leadership of Balen, came to power. The Balen-led government was formed after last year’s Gen Z movement overthrew the Oli government and Parliament was dissolved. An interim government led by former Chief Justice Sushila Karki was then formed with the primary mandate of conducting the March 2026 general election. The interim government fulfilled its responsibility, the election was held, and the RSP emerged victorious with an almost absolute majority.
Balendra Shah, popularly known as Balen, took the oath of office and secrecy as Prime Minister. After assuming office, he announced that he would not visit any foreign country for at least a year, breaking with the long-standing tradition of Nepal’s leaders visiting neighbouring countries such as India and China soon after taking office. The decision was praised by many observers, foreign officials, and policy experts as reflecting a balanced and independent diplomatic approach.
In the past, newly elected prime ministers would meet foreign ambassadors individually either at the Prime Minister’s Office or at their official residence within days of assuming office. Although unwritten, this practice had become an established diplomatic convention.
What surprised many observers even more was Balen’s decision not to meet Kathmandu-based envoys individually after assuming office—a departure from past practice. Instead, he convened a joint meeting with Kathmandu-based ambassadors on April 9, 2026. Shah, who took office on March 27, had initially declined to meet even senior US diplomats visiting Nepal. He turned down a request from the US Embassy in Kathmandu to meet US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Samil Paul Kapur. Likewise, he declined to meet Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, reportedly citing concerns over diplomatic protocol and political stature. The only exception was his meeting with Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda, who was on a three-day visit to Nepal.
However, in a surprising turn of events, Balen Shah has departed from his earlier approach and begun holding meetings with domestic stakeholders, including business leaders, traders, contractors, and industrialists. More interestingly, there have been reports claiming that Shah met the Indian and Chinese ambassadors separately on the same day shortly after his government completed its first 100 days in office.
Political observers and citizens are now asking an important question: Why did Balen, after refusing to meet Kathmandu-based ambassadors individually, suddenly change course? Why did he decline meetings with visiting international dignitaries, including US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia Sergio Mor, only to later engage actively with both domestic stakeholders and foreign diplomats? What prompted this apparent U-turn?
While citizens across the country were waiting for a convincing explanation, the latest diplomatic development from New Delhi has attracted widespread attention. The Indian government has formally invited Nepal’s Prime Minister, Balen Shah, to visit India. The invitation will undoubtedly serve as a litmus test for the Prime Minister. He will, in many ways, be walking on eggshells.
Whether Balen accepts New Delhi’s invitation, in itself, the central issue. Rather, the real concern is the apparent inconsistency between his earlier commitments and his recent actions. Today, Balen is not merely a politician; he has become a household name. He represents a generation of young people who have placed immense hope in his leadership. His simple yet effective agenda initially made him the darling of the masses. However, many now perceive some of his political strategies as publicity stunts rather than genuine efforts to address the country’s socioeconomic and political challenges. Such a perception does not bode well for either Balen or his party.
A familiar question is often raised in international political circles: Will Nepal fall under China’s influence, or will it align more closely with its immediate southern neighbour, India? Traditionally, communist parties in Nepal have been perceived as being closer to China, while democratic parties have been viewed as maintaining stronger ties with India. Consequently, leftist governments are often believed to prioritise policies favourable to China, whereas democratic parties are generally seen as being more sympathetic to India’s strategic interests.
Nepal has long maintained a delicate diplomatic balance between its two immediate neighbours—India and China—while also engaging with other international partners to safeguard its national interests. Both India and China share unique and longstanding relationships with Nepal and have remained important partners in its pursuit of peace, stability, and development.
Neither New Delhi should be prioritised over Beijing, nor Beijing over New Delhi. If Balen declines the invitation, relations between the two friendly nations could suffer. Conversely, if he accepts the invitation and visits India, he must proceed with caution and avoid making any diplomatic misstep that could unsettle Nepal’s northern neighbour.
All eyes are now on Balen.
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