By Shashi P.B.B. Malla

There is no doubt that the United States’ confrontation with Iran evolved out of longstanding tensions over its nuclear programme.

However, the focus has now shifted to Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea.

The result is a chokehold on one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and acrimonious dispute that has returned the two mortal enemies to open conflict (NYT/ The New York Times, July 21).

Ryan Crocker, a former U.S. ambassador to various countries in the Middle East, including Iraq and Kuwait said: “Maybe we can neutralize their capacity to interdict shipping, but all it takes is one mosquito boat, a couple of mines or a few drones to get through, and you’ve effectively blocked trade again” (NYT).

Using the same methods and tactics and hoping for a better outcome is the wrong strategy.

Iran must, therefore, be militarily incapacitated, in the short and middle term, and the gains consolidated to achieve long -term success.

Iran must be cut down to size.

Its ambition to be the regional hegemon dictating terms must be resolutely opposed.

This is also in the national interests of all the Arab Gulf countries – Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Oman, and also Jordan which has also been repeatedly targeted by Iran.

A united front by all these countries vis-à-vis Iran is in their individual and collective interest. On no account should they aspire to a ‘special relationship’ with the would-be hegemon. Its overall aim is to ‘divide and rule’, not only in the immediate neighbourhood, but also in the wider region.

If U.S. security guarantees falter, other rising middle powers like Turkiye, Egypt and Pakistan can be roped in.

The need to take decisive action against Iran Is also dictated by the fact that Iran does not respect diplomatic negotiations and agreements, as the fate of the recent Memorandum of Understanding illustrates.

Iran has attempted to put its own spin to the MoU – cherry picking and insisting on its own interpretation.

Trump’s war of choice has given Iran leverage over the Strait of Hormuz – something that it did not have before the war and with which it can blackmail the other Gulf countries and also the world at large.

This is indeed a situation that cannot be allowed to continue, and the United States and the Arab countries must take decisive action without dilly-dallying.

There is also no denying the fact that it is extremely difficult to negotiate with Iran and come to a peaceful conclusion, as the leadership is hopelessly fractured.

The ultimate goal must be regime change in Iran for long-term security of the entire region.

At one time the Trump administration was on the right track, but then it lost direction and/or chickened out.

A change of regime would also be beneficial for the long suffering people of Iran.

But not only domestically in Iran, even the wider Middle East would breathe a sigh of relief. All the countries of the region could then concentrate on their own domestic development.

However, not only in Iran proper, but also the capacity of its proxies in the region – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis of Yemen and Hamas in the Gaza strip – to cause mischief must be greatly reduced, or better eliminated.

Lately, the Houthis have again emerged as troublemakers in the region.

They have greatly increased Iran’s leverage in Hormuz by targeting two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea last Friday.

They have thus made good on a threat to cut off an alternative route for the region’s oil (AP/Associated Press, July 25).

The Saudis had resurrected an old pipeline connecting its oil fields in the east to its port on the Red Sea with shipments proceeding further to the Asia-Pacific.

The Houthis have now effectively closed the Bab el-Mandab Strait – the exit/entry to the Red Sea.

The rising tension in the Red Sea has threatened to further restrict global shipping, because the militants have closed a vital shipping chokepoint.

Around 12 percent of the world’s trade, including a quarter of global container traffic, passes through the narrows.

There is a pressing need to contain the Houthis.

Trump has threatened ‘major military punishment’ against the Houthis if their attacks on ships continue.

But as we have seen time and again, Trump’s bark is worse than his bite!

Limited War a necessity

The possibility of another ‘forever war’ can, in fact, be dissipated if the Gulf Arab countries finally decide to take action collectively and not passively accept wave after wave of Iranian attacks on their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

It will depend on Trump whether he wants to join the good fight. Until now he has shied from putting boots on the ground, but this is inevitable for a long-term solution.

The point is to destroy Iran’s capacity to hinder the free and full maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The ‘mosquito boats’, mine-lying capacity and ballistic missiles and launchers must be fully destroyed.

There will also be the need to physically occupy some of the islands hugging the Iranian northern Gulf coast and that of the Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea, as well as some coastal areas – until regional peace is established.

U.S. General Barry R. McCaffrey sees one military escalation that could be useful to squeeze Iran : Help the UAE to recover the islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musain the Gulf that had been forcibly seized by Iran in 1971, even before the consolidation of the UAE.

If the Emirates are willing to do this with their own troops rather than America’s, it could help control the strategically located Strait of Hormuz.

If the UN Security Council is not able to bring peace and security to the region, then the General Assembly could play a special role.

The writer can be reached at: shashimalla125@gmail.com