By Our Reporter
How long will the present coalition government last, along with the formation of the government, a question has been raised. Following a dramatic and unbelievable step taken by an unstable and untrusting political player of present-day Nepal, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, the all-time chairman of the CPN (Maoist Centre), how will the new government be led by Dahal? Many people and political pundits in tea shops and bars could be heard making arguments on the issue.
Obviously, Prime Minister Dahal is the most untrusting politician in Nepal. No one knows who he will deceive and when. Since the election of the first president of Nepal, Dahal has been playing the trickery game. Girija Prasad Koirala was the first victim of Dahal’s devious game in 2008. Koirala had agreed to overthrow the monarchy when Dahal promised to make Koirala the first president, but during the election, he made Ram Raja Prasad Singh his candidate, thwarting the dream of Koirala. Dahal has not since then given up his old habit of deceiving bedfellows. In 2017, his party was in government, led by Sher Bahadur Deuba but he forged an electoral alliance with the CPN-UML which later culminated in the creation of the Nepal Communist Party and KP Sharma Oli became party chair and Prime Minister, but it was Dahal who not only pulled down Oli from the government but divided the new party into three in 2021. He forged an electoral alliance with NC in 2022 but formed the government by forging an alliance with the CPN-UML a few weeks after the election. Yet, he ended the alliance in two months and made NC his new coalition partner. After a year, he again formed a coalition government of UML and Maoist Centre. Surprisingly, both Deuba and Oli have been depending on Dahal to reach power, but Dahal has been cashing in on the compulsions of the big parties.
As such, one cannot predict the term of any government until there is Dahal, it can collapse at any time or only after two years when Dahal has to quit the post of the Prime Minister to Oli or Madhav Kumar Nepal. But one thing is sure the new government is not strong. If the Rashtriya Swatantra Party quits it or withdraws its support, it can collapse immediately. And if Madhav Kumar Nepal gets angry with PM Dahal or Oli, his move can also shake the government. Considering this difficulty, Oli reached the residence of Madhav Kumar Nepal without gargling this time. (Oli had once said that he would gargle for uttering Madhav’s name). Again, there is Upendra Yadav and his party in the government, another highly untrusting politician of Nepal.
Now the government has the support of 154 of 275 lawmakers and if RSP, quits, it will fall in the minority. Thus, the present government does not look strong.
And if the RSP quits, JSP-N will also quit because Upendra cannot stay outside the power. Madhav Nepal obviously finds it more comfortable to be with Deuba than Dahal.
If an alternative coalition is created with the support of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party and if Janamat joins the present government, Upendra cannot stay in government because he does not want to see Janamat in government. However, to form an alternative coalition of democratic alliance, the RPP should support it. Now RPP has said that it would not engage in power games, instead, it would launch a movement for monarchy and Hinduism.
If Deuba or any other leader in NC manages to create a democratic alliance, the communists will be out of power, because non-communists enjoy a majority in the parliament, and Madhav Nepal-led CPN (Unified Socialist) though a communist party will probably join the democratic alliance for the time being to maintain survival of his party.
Moreover, the government is likely to face a difficult situation in the House when the largest party, the NC, is in the opposition. Maybe, NC may not be allowed to run the House business smoothly until Rabi Lamichhane, who is dragged into controversy for his involvement in embezzling money from cooperatives, is in the government. And if such happens, RSP can quit the government leading to the fall of it.
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